Bitcoin Price Chart (BTC) Coinbase

"We may be looking at one of the greatest arbitrage opportunities in the stock markets history. And this is largely due to the lack of understanding surrounding the opportunity connected to Bitcoin. This historical chart shows the true trajectory and trading range of Bitcoin:"

submitted by biomimic to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

"We may be looking at one of the greatest arbitrage opportunities in the stock markets history. And this is largely due to the lack of understanding surrounding the opportunity connected to Bitcoin. This historical chart shows the true trajectory and trading range of Bitcoin:"

submitted by WallStArb_throwaway to stocks [link] [comments]

Bitcoin is due to go up if you follow S2F - Let's get ready to rumble!

Bitcoin is due to go up if you follow S2F - Let's get ready to rumble!

BTC historical Stock to Flow chart
According to Stock to Flow, it is time for BTC to makes some moves up. It's been a fairly dependable bellwether for Bitcoins movement, whether up or down.
As you can see from the above chart, it looks to be the season to be jolly for longs is upon us. Of course, this could go sideways still for another couple months, but with every passing day the the magnet drawing BTC to the northern reaches gets ever stronger.
Here is a more recent range for the Stock to Flow model:

Stock to Flow chart from June 2016 to January 2020
Comparing where we are now to the lead up to the bull run starting in 2016 - we are on the cusp of a long and fruitful bull season!
Now of course, Bitcoin could decide on a new path and break from precedent. But, why should it?
What do you think? I for one do believe that history will repeat once again, but of course: nothing is 100%
Fingers crossed that this model continues to be correct!
submitted by abbeyeiger to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent

DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent
In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-driven DD), I'll be going over the real reason why we have been seeing a rally for the past few weeks, defying all logic and fundamentals - retail investors. We'll look into several data sets to see how retail interest in stock markets have reached record levels in the past few weeks, how this affected stock prices, and why we've most likely seen the top at this point, unless we see one of the "positive catalysts" that I mentioned in my previous post, which is unlikely (except for more news about Remdesivir).
Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance.
Inspiration
Most people who know me personally know that I spend an unhealthy amount of my free time in finance and trading as a hobby, even competing in paper options trading competitions when I was in high school. A few weeks ago, I had a friend ask if he could call me because he just installed Robinhood and wanted to buy SPY puts after seeing everyone on wallstreetbets post gains posts from all the tendies they’ve made from their SPY puts. The problem was, he actually didn’t understand how options worked at all, and needed a thorough explanation about how options are priced, what strike prices and expiration dates mean, and what the right strategy to buying options are. That’s how I knew we were at the euphoria stage of buying SPY puts - it’s when dumb money starts to pour in, and people start buying securities because they see everyone else making money and they want in, even if they have no idea what they’re buying, and price becomes dislocated from fundementals. Sure enough, less than a week later, we started the bull rally that we are currently in. Bubbles are formed when people buy something not because of logic or even gut feeling, but when people who previously weren’t involved see their dumb neighbors make tons of money from it, and they don’t want to miss out.
A few days ago, I started getting questions from other friends about what stocks they should buy and if I thought something was a good investment. That inspired me to dig a bit deeper to see how many other people are thinking the same thing.
Data
Ever since March, we’ve seen an unprecedented amount of money pour into the stock market from retail investors.
Google Search Trends
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 12 months
\"stocks\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"stocks\" Google Trends 12 months
Brokerage data
Robinhood SPY holders
\"Robinhood\" Google Trends 12 months
wallstreetbets' favorite broker Google Trends 12 months
Excerpt from E*Trade earnings statement
Excerpt from Schwab earnings statement
TD Ameritrade Excerpt
Media
cnbc.com Alexa rank
CNBC viewership & rankings
wallstreetbets comments / day

investing comments / day
Analysis
What we can see from Reddit numbers, Google Trends, and CNBC stats is that in between the first week of March and first week of April, we see a massive inflow of retail interest in the stock market. Not only that, but this inflow of interest is coming from all age cohorts, from internet-using Zoomers to TV-watching Boomers. Robinhood SPY holdings and earnings reports from E*Trade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab have also all confirmed record numbers of new clients, number of trades, and assets. There’s something interesting going on if you look closer at the numbers. The numbers growth in brokers for designed for “less sophisticated” investors (i.e. Robinhood and E*Trade) are much larger than for real brokers (i.e. Schwab and Ameritrade). This implies that the record number of new users and trade volume is coming from dumb money. The numbers shown here only really apply to the US and Canada, but there’s also data to suggest that there’s also record numbers of foreign investors pouring money into the US stock market as well.
However, after the third week of March, we see the interest start to slowly decline and plateau, indicating that we probably have seen most of those new investors who wanted to have a long position in the market do so.
SPX daily
Rationale
Pretty much everything past this point is purely speculation, and isn’t really backed up by any solid data so take whatever I say here with a cup of salt. We could see from the graph that new investor interest started with the first bull trap we saw in the initial decline from early March, and peaking right after the end of the crash in March. So it would be fair to guess that we’re seeing a record amount of interest in the stock market from a “buy the dip” mentality, especially from Robinhood-using Millennials. Here’s a few points on my rationalization of this behavior, based on very weak anecdotal evidence
  • They missed out of their chance of getting in the stock market at the start of the bull market that happened at the end of 2009
  • They’ve all seen the stock market make record gains throughout their adult lives, but believing that the market might be overheated, they were waiting for a crash
  • Most of them have gotten towards the stage of their lives where they actually have some savings and can finally put some money aside for investments
  • This stock market crash seems like their once-in-a-decade opportunity that they’ve been waiting for, so everyone jumped in
  • Everyone’s stuck at their homes with vast amounts of unexpected free time on their hands
Most of these new investors got their first taste in the market near the bottom, and probably made some nice returns. Of course, since they didn’t know what they were doing, they probably put a very small amount of money at first, but after seeing a 10% return over one week, validating that maybe they do know something, they decide to slowly pour in more and more of their life savings. That’s what’s been fueling this bull market.
Sentiment & Magic Crayons
As I mentioned previously, this bull rally will keep going until enough bears convert to bulls. Markets go up when the amount of new bullish positions outnumber the amount of new bearish positions, and vice versa. Record amounts of new investors, who previously never held a position in the market before, fueled the bullish side of this equation, despite all the negative data that has come out and dislocating the price from fundamentals. All the smart money that was shorting the markets saw this happening, and flipped to become bulls because you don’t fight the trend, even if the trend doesn’t reflect reality.
From the data shown above, we can see new investor interest growth has started declining since mid March and started stagnating in early April. The declining volume in SPY since mid-March confirms this. That means, once the sentiment of the new retail investors starts to turn bearish, and everyone figures out how much the stocks they’re holding are really worth, another sell-off will begin. I’ve seen something very similar to this a few years ago with Bitcoin. Near the end of 2017, Bitcoin started to become mainstream and saw a flood of retail investors suddenly signing up for Coinbase (i.e. Robinhood) accounts and buying Bitcoin without actually understanding what it is and how it works. Suddenly everyone, from co-workers to grandparents, starts talking about Bitcoin and might have thrown a few thousand dollars into it. This appears to be a very similar parallel to what’s going on right now. Of course there’s differences here in that equities have an intrinsic value, although many of them have gone way above what they should be intrinsically worth, and the vast majority of retail investors don’t understand how to value companies. Then, during December, when people started thinking that the market was getting a bit overheated, some started taking their profits, and that’s when the prices crashed violently. This flip in sentiment now look like it has started with equities.
SPY daily
Technical Analysis, or magic crayons, is a discipline in finance that uses statistical analysis to predict market trends based on market sentiment. Of course, a lot of this is hand-wavy and is very subjective; two people doing TA on the same price history can end up getting opposite results, so TA should always be taken with a grain of salt and ideally be backed with underlying justification and not be blindly followed. In fact, I’ve since corrected the ascending wedge I had on SPY since my last post since this new wedge is a better fit for the new trading data.
There’s a few things going on in this chart. The entire bull rally we’ve had since the lows can be modelled using a rising wedge. This is a pattern where there is a convergence of a rising support and resistance trendline, along with falling volume. This indicates a slow decline in net bullish sentiment with investors, with smaller and smaller upside after each bounce off the support until it hits a resistance. The smaller the bounces, the less bullish investors are. When the bearish sentiment takes over across investors, the price breaks below this wedge - a breakdown, and indicates a start of another downtrend.
This happened when the wedge hit resistance at around 293, which is around the same price as the 200 day moving average, the 62% retracement (considered to be the upper bound of a bull trap), and a price level that acted as a support and resistance throughout 2019. The fact that it gapped down to break this wedge is also a strong signal, indicating a sudden swing in investor sentiment overnight. The volume of the break down also broke the downwards trend of volume we’ve had since the beginning of the bull rally, indicating a sudden surge of people selling their shares. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will go straight from here, and I personally think that we will see the completion of a heads-and-shoulders pattern complete before SPY goes below 274, which in itself is a strong support level. In other words, SPY might go from 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 before breaking the 274 support level.
VIX Daily
Doing TA is already sketchy, and doing TA on something like VIX is even more sketchy, but I found this interesting so I’ll mention it. Since the start of the bull rally, we’ve had VIX inside a descending channel. With the breakdown we had in SPY yesterday, VIX has also gapped up to have a breakout from this channel, indicating that we may see future volatility in the next week or so.
Putting Everything Together
Finally, we get to my thesis. This entire bull rally has been fueled by new retail investors buying the dip, bringing the stock price to euphoric levels. Over the past few weeks, we’ve been seeing the people waiting at the sidelines for years to get into the stock market slowly FOMO into the rally in smaller and smaller volumes, while the smart money have been locking in their profits at an even slower rate - hence an ascending wedge. As the amount of new retail interest in the stock market started slowed down, the amount of new bulls started to decline. It looks like Friday might have been the start of the bearish sentiment taking over, meaning it’s likely that 293 was the top, unless any significant bullish events happen in the next two weeks like a fourth round of stimulus, in which case we might see 300. This doesn’t mean we’ll instantly go back to circuit breakers on Monday, and we might see 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 happen before panic, this time by the first-time investors, eventually bringing us down towards SPY 180.
tldr; we've reached the top
EDIT - I'll keep a my live thoughts here as we move throughout this week in case anyone's still reading this and interested.
5/4 8PM - /ES was red last night but steadily climbed, which was expected since 1h RSI was borderline oversold, leaving us to a slightly green day. /ES looks like it has momentum going up, but is approaching towards overbought territory now. Expecting it to go towards 284 (possibly where we'll open tomorrow) and bouncing back down from that price level
5/5 Market Open - Well there goes my price target. I guess at this point it might go up to 293 again, but will need a lot of momentum to push back there to 300. Seems like this is being driven by oil prices skyrocketing.
5/5 3:50PM - Volume for the upwards price action had very little volume behind it. Seeing a selloff EOD today, could go either way although I have a bearish bias. Going to hold cash until it goes towards one end of the 274-293 channel (see last week's thesis). Still believe that we will see it drop below 274 next week, but we might be moving sideways in the channel this week and a bit of next week before that happens. Plan for tomorrow is buy short dated puts if open < 285. Otherwise, wait till it goes to 293 before buying those puts
5/5 6PM - What we saw today could be a false breakout above 284. Need tomorrow to open below 285 for that to be confirmed. If so, my original thesis of it going back down to 274 before bouncing back up will still be in play.
5/6 EOD - Wasn't a false breakout. Looks like it's still forming the head-and-shoulders pattern mentioned before, but 288 instead of 284 as the level. Still not sure yet so I'm personally going to be holding cash and waiting this out for the next few days. Will enter into short positions if we either go near 293 again or drop below 270. Might look into VIX calls if VIX goes down near 30.
5/7 Market Open - Still waiting. If we break 289 we're probably heading to 293. I'll make my entry to short positions when we hit that a second time. There's very little bullish momentum left (see MACD 1D), so if we hit 293 and then drop back down, we'll have a MACD crossover event which many traders and algos use as a sell signal. Oil is doing some weird shit.
5/7 Noon - Looks like we're headed to 293. Picked up VIX 32.5c 5/27 since VIX is near 30.
5/7 11PM - /ES is hovering right above 2910, with 4h and 1h charts are bullish from MACD and 1h is almost overbought in RSI. Unless something dramatic happens we'll probably hit near 293 tomorrow, which is where I'll get some SPY puts. We might drop down before ever touching it, or go all the way to 295 (like last time) during the day, but expecting it to close at or below 293. After that I'm expecting a gap down Monday as we start the final leg down next week towards 274. Expecting 1D MACD to crossover in the final leg down, which will be a signal for bears to take over and institutions / day traders will start selling again
5/8 Market Open - Plan is to wait till a good entry today, either when technicals looks good or we hit 293, and then buy some SPY June 285p and July 275p
5/8 Noon - Everything still going according to plan. Most likely going to slowly inch towards 293 by EOD. Will probably pick up SPY puts and more VIX calls at power hour (3 - 4PM). Monday will probably gap down, although there's a small chance of one more green / sideways day before that happens if we have bullish catalysts on the weekend.
5/8 3:55PM - SPY at 292.60. This is probably going to be the closest we get to 293. Bought SPY 290-260 6/19 debit spreads and 292-272 5/15 debit spreads, as well as doubling down on VIX calls from yesterday, decreasing my cost basis. Still looks like there's room for one more green day on Monday, so I left some money on the side to double down if that's the case, although it's more likely than not we won't get there.
5/8 EOD - Looks like we barely touched 293 exactly AH before rebounding down. Too bad you can't buy options AH, but more convinced we'll see a gap down on Monday. Going to work on another post over the weekend and do my updates there. Have a great weekend everyone!
submitted by ASoftEngStudent to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Prepping for a Financial crisis / hyperinflation.

So what can we do about it? Any ideas are welcome.
It has a lot of "what if's"... It depends how tax and law play out with it.Historically speaking:
  1. -I stock bulk diesel for my cars while following historical averages to buy cheap.
  2. -Rotating food stock
  3. -Extra maintenance items, including the big things like a roof on your home if its coming time. Not joking I have a spare water heater and backup heating options, along with minor parts and filters to fix them. Same with cars and engines, (spark plugs, filters (all different filters), oil, cheap sensors that usually go bad and are only 4-10$ each, 1-2 extra alternator per vehicle, belts, mowing belts, bearings, grease, ... and I've literally had to use everything on that list and reorder.)
  1. -Security, Locks, Alarms, Cameras, people steal.
  2. A deep freezer for instance can stock food you use and buy on sale.
  3. Solar energy and solar heating supplements energy you use anyways
  4. Rainwater can be collected and used rather than buying from a source.
  5. A cooking gadget vs eating out.
  6. Tools and learning to fix things vs hire.
  7. House insulation.-Better insulative windows, and sealing.
  8. Geo-Thermal
  9. Gardening
  10. Bidet on toilet (lol serious though...)
  11. Backup power
  12. Your education can be a huge one, not just for prepping but also in your work.
  13. Things that prevent rot, fire, flood / humidity, or failure. Humidity is a silent killer to many preps. (water sump pumps, dehumidifiers, leak prevention, fire extinguishers / sprinklers, )
submitted by AntiSonOfBitchamajig to preppers [link] [comments]

What will undoubtedly happen from a macroeconomic (big picture) perspective... idiots

OKAY. So demand has been reduced dramatically around the world, our $21 trillion GDP has basically been paused for 2 months, so to keep it afloat (rough math), the government had to add $3.5 trillion to keep the economy running somewhat smoothly. That's a lot of printing, you idiots probably expect inflation. Wrong, step away from the US and look at what other countries are doing, the ECB (European Central Bank) and BOJ (Bank of Japan) are having to print trillions of dollars worth of EURO and YEN to keep their economies going, along with every other country getting pounded. Not only that, but since the US dollar makes up 70% of global transactions, in liquidity terms, trillions worth of euro and yen is MUCH MUCH more than any amount Jpow feels like printing, there's no way our printing could offset what the rest of the world is doing, so inflation isn't coming. If you want proof, just look at the euro/usd (going lower) and literally ANY emerging market currency is getting absolutely clapped vs the dollar.

Furthermore, not only is US corporate debt at an all time high, but emerging markets, the eurozone, and asia has borrowed more dollars than ever before at any point in history, basically everyone around the world's debt is denominated in US DOLLARS. So what's about to happen? It's already happening, demand for US dollars is going up because everyone around the world wants to borrow more to offset cash flow concerns and pay off existing debts, which will cause the dollar to increase in value. What happens when the whole world has debt in dollars and the dollar goes up in value? DEBT BECOMES MORE EXPENSIVE. This is DEFLATION, and in particular and even more terrifying DEBT DEFLATION, a phrase that would make Jpow absolutely shit himself (and he knows its coming). This has already started before the whole beervirus nonsense, look at Venezuela and Zimbabwe, they had too much dollar debt, no one wanted to lend to them anymore and whoops, their currency is worthless now. It's going to be like a game of musical chairs for people trying to get access to dollars, starting with emerging markets and eventually moving into the more developed economies. The result: massive corporate bankruptcies, countries defaulting on debt (devaluing their currencies) and eventually a deleveraging of massive proportions. This WILL occur and no amount of printing can stop it, it's already too far gone.

It doesn't matter what the stock market does, other markets around the world will be fucked, honestly it might cause the market to go up because of all the money fleeing other countries trying to find a safe place to live. Here are the plays assholes. TLT will go up because no matter what Jpow says, he doesn't control the fed funds rate, the market does, and US treasury bond yields have already priced in bonds going negative. CPI shows that we may see up to -3% inflation (3% deflation), meaning at .25% fed funds rate, the REAL rate is 3.25%, that is the worst thing possible during a deleveraging because it makes it harder to stimulate the economy, the fed has no choice, rates MUST go lower. Rates go lower, bond prices go up, TLT 12/18 $205c. Remember how I said scared foreign money will want to find a nice safe place to go when we go into the biggest debt crisis the world has seen in over 300 years? GLD 12/18 $240c. Finally, the dollar will rise in value as well so UUP 12/18 $28c.

As far the actual market, we hit a high of SPY 339.08 in February, fell to a low of 218.26 by mid March, and have since then retraced EXACTLY to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 290, and started to bounce lower from there. I'm no technical analyst, but I do know history. During the greatest crashes in stock market history, 1929, 2001, 2008, the Nikkei in 1989 (Japan) this exact same thing happened, market got scared and fell to lows, then smoked that good hopium for a few weeks or month to retrace between 50% and 61.8% back to previews highs, then absolutely fell off a cliff. If you don't believe me, go look at the charts. Now, I'm personally not going to be betting on the US market falling because of the fact that its just straight up not reflecting reality and there are much better ways to trade on what's occurring (see trades above), but I PROMISE, that we will not be seeing new highs at any point any time soon.

TLDR; The world is going to shit due to the dollars over-dominance of the world market, we will soon see the worst deleveraging in human history, and may very well have to come up with a new fiat money system (probably not bitcoin, but it wouldn't hurt to have some). TLT 12/18 $205c, GLD 12/18 $240c, and UUP 12/18 $28c. If you wanna be an autist and buy weeklys, I can't help you, but I basically just gave you the next big short, so you're welcome.

DISCLAIMER: I didn't say what price to buy at for a reason, timing is extremely important for trades like this, so don't FOMO in and overpay, you will get clapped.
submitted by Rezuwrecked_ to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Ely Gold Royalties Bottoming Out

http://lists.apisbull.com/cgi-bin/dada/mail.cgi/archive/activitynotices/20200922145519/

Just bought Ely Gold Royalties (ELYGF) at $0.8975 today. Didn't even plan on it. I was going through a list of gold and silver stocks and Ely Gold on the charts was pretty low on the stochastics and money flow for daily and weekly.
See the daily chart
See the weekly chart
In my next video I'll explain in detail why I bought and sold my latest transactions over the past two weeks.
As predicted silver and Bitcoin are falling. Although I see a few up days for silver but the down trend will continue for a couple of months. As for Bitcoin I see a down turn whether slow or fast down to $8,5000.00
Be sure to check out my
Youtube channel
Twitter
Trading History
Newsletter archives are located at http://lists.apisbull.com/cgi-bin/dada/mail.cgi/list/activitynotices/
submitted by ApisBullTrading to u/ApisBullTrading [link] [comments]

SILVER VIPER MINERALS

I'm thinking about buying SILVER VIPER MINERALS (VIPRF). I haven't picked a price yet as I need to see it rise above the 18 day moving average line.
See the chart;SMA(18);COTLC;STOSL(14,3);SRSI(14,20);MFI(14,100);SMACD(12,30,18);SMA(50)&sym=VIPRF&grid=1&height=375&studyheight=100) and see my order
My last silver pick, DEFIANCE SILVER (DNCVF) which I sold a day or two ago resulted in a profit of 59.724% and held it for 27 days.
I am still waiting for Bitcoin to come down to $9,000 or $8,500 as you can see on the daily and monthly charts it is trading at a top.
I still think silver will come down as the charts suggest along with Bitcoin. To rationalize this to fundamental traders who are not technical traders I think the reason will be that Trump will get re-elected and will make policies or actions that will comfort those who are holding dollars but that will be a temporary thing and up again we will go in prices.
See the silver daily and monthly charts.
Trading is about patients and control not about how active you are.

Be sure to check out my
Youtube channel
Twitter
Trading History
Newsletter archives are located at http://lists.apisbull.com/cgi-bin/dada/mail.cgi/list/activitynotices/
Main Page
submitted by ApisBullTrading to u/ApisBullTrading [link] [comments]

Message to all of my followers:

Hope everyone is having a good ass day today. This might be long. Please upvote so others are more likely to see in their feeds.
I have really wanted to start sharing my other forms of trading with you guys. I trade forex and did well this week betting on usd strength against the safe haven currency Japanese yen.
I’m also invested at $2,200 into a crypto currency called cindicator. I have 392,197 shares. Trying to get to 700,000 for access to their highest tier of trading indicators. I’ve followed this company for a long ass time and their product is great. If the price gets back to its high of $0.37, it’s a 6,959% profit for me. I’m expecting it to hit AT LEAST a dollar during this next bull run due to cnd/btc charts. Crypto currencies are similar to pennystocks in their volatility.
I also have very good evidence that bitcoin is about to start moving up very rapidly. The halving event that pushed it up to $20,000 just happened again two weeks ago. I and probably everyone else are expecting $100,000 bitcoin by October 2021 due to bitcoin stock to flow model. That indicator was designed by some billion dollar hedge fund manager and its accuracy is something I’ve never seen before. Please read the bottom half where it explains how that indicator works. Truly impressive.
I’m also learning how to trade SPY options, and I just made my first winning trade after a week of losing by buying SPY 298c 5/29
So my question is, are you interested in learning other forms of trading? By order of difficulty, we’d start with crypto currency. Mainly bitcoin and a handful of others. It’s pretty straightforward until you get into cold storage. Then forex which is complicated, and options further down the line after I understand them fully. Or if the consensus is forex or options, we’ll start there.
My main goal in Reddit is to make you guys better traders/ investors. One of my next personal goals is to get my series 7 and 65 licenses and do this shit professionally.
I’ve done the math, and if my average return in forex at ~10% per month stays consistent, managing $5,000,000 in client money and charging 20% would mean I make $80,000 a month. I’m currently building my trading history on Oanda as the first step in this process. So if you start seeing me in suits and ties on my streams, you’ll know what’s up.
Let me know if you’re interested. I’m not sure how I would do it. Maybe just include [BTC] in my headlines about crypto currency stuff when I post so that it’s easy to skim over for those not interested. I don’t want to start an isolated subreddit or anything like that.
submitted by trevandezz to u/trevandezz [link] [comments]

What mistakes should be avoided in the bull crypto market?

What mistakes should be avoided in the bull crypto market?
In the investing world, the terms “bull” and “bear” are often used to describe market conditions. These terms describe the way things are in stock markets in general, that is, whether they rise or decline.
For you as an investor, market direction is the main force that has a huge impact on your portfolio. Therefore, it is important to understand how each of these market conditions can affect your cryptocurrency investment.
What are bull and bear markets?
Bull markets are defined by aggressive market growth over a period of time. As the market starts to grow, people in the stock market become greedier. You can see more and more of them thinking, “Oh yes, let's invest in the market because it is growing.”
The definition of a bear market is the exact opposite of a bull market. It is a market that, quarter after quarter, goes down by about 20 percent. This signals a bear market, and when this happens, people become afraid to invest in the stock market.
What are the advantages of a bear market?
It is important to remember that a bull market is characterized by a general sense of optimism and positive growth, which tends to stimulate greed. A bear market is associated with a general sense of decline, which tends to strike fear into the hearts of shareholders.
[ Life Hack ] When it comes to bull and bear markets, savvy investors often act differently from the investing public and capitalize on their emotions by finding quality stocks at low prices during bear markets and selling these stocks in bull markets after their value has recovered.
Cryptocurrency traders and investors gradually shift from fearing a market crash to hoping for the fast growth of bitcoin and other coins. The bull trend, in other words, a rapid rise in the price of an asset, is the best time to make money in the blockchain industry. However, mistakes are possible even during a bull run.
What mistakes do investors make in the bull crypto market?
1. Belief in the hype. Due to the hype in the media, an investment bubble often appears, which makes cryptocurrency jump in price. As a result, long-term investors sell to make huge profits, leaving other investors with stocks that will not be profitable.
2. Using the wrong exchange. It is a simple one. However, many investors choose an exchange without learning more about its fees or practices. High fees mean lower profit margins.
As an investor, you want to look for safe exchanges with low fees to make your portfolio more profitable.
3. Security. A recurring problem is that investors trust “exchange wallets” and simply store their assets on exchanges. While reputable exchanges have a long history of protecting investor funds, online systems are never this air-tight. They can still be used, and hackers are always eager.
4. Short buys and sells. The cryptocurrency market attracts many amateur investors. This means that many people sell very quickly because they are nervous about price fluctuations.
5. Don’t read cryptocurrency charts. Understand the market you are trading in — learn as much as you can from the start, and then increase your knowledge as you go. In the world of cryptocurrencies, the expression “knowledge is power” is more relevant than ever.
How to avoid these mistakes
Taylor Monahan, the co-founder of MyCryptoWallet and MyEtherWallet, tweeted some helpful tips from her previous bull run in 2017. We have created this list for you based on her advice:
· Don’t chase every new “promising” coin. Choose coins for investing deliberately, conduct market analysis. Don't invest only by following the advice of others.
· Don’t seek to make money only by selling coins at their short-term peak. Moreover, it is worth transferring 90-95% of your capital to cold storage for a long time. You will only be successful when you learn to generate a stable return on investment.
· Transfer your cryptocurrency funds to your secure hardware wallet and only connect it when you need to complete a transaction. These relatively inexpensive security measures allow you to invest with confidence and without worry.
· Invest in cryptocurrencies only the money you are mentally ready to lose. That is, you should not take a loan or spend all savings on investments. In the long term, this strategy will only lead to losses and debt.
· Good exchanges will focus on ease of investing, using clear charts, and tracking trading prices as close to real time as possible. They will also work to keep fees fair and as low as possible while maintaining the integrity of their platform's security.
Summary
The first priority for traders and investors is to preserve their equity. Don’t play with margin trading if you are not familiar with its basic principles. Determine for yourself a strategy in which even dozens of unprofitable trades will not make you bankrupt.
The key to success in the cryptocurrency market is the ability to cope with your emotions. It is the emotions that get in the way of getting rid of assets at the peak of their rates and force people to buy coins after they have overcome their maximum. In any situation, it is worth thinking twice. What is more, all contemplation should be supported by your own research.
submitted by Cratos_Official to u/Cratos_Official [link] [comments]

One Year Update: 38M FIREd

Well, February 22nd makes it one whole year. I think that's deserving of a top level post, right?
Here are screenshots of the Mint Trends, which has every single expense from the past year categorized. I've added comments on each page.
Expenses Overview
Auto Expenses
Food Expenses
Home Expenses
Utility Expenses
Tax Expenses
Healthcare Expenses
Entertainment Expenses
Main takeaways, my total expenses for the year was $37,700, but I'm going to dismiss about $15,000 of that as "one time" expenses from paying off my car and my furniture loan. A more reasonable number for my annual spend is $22,700.
With my car payment gone, my highest expense category is Food, averaging $500 per month. This has room for improvement.
Healthcare will look artificially low last year because of taking Tax Credits up front. This year I am not and will be paying $325 per month for health insurance. At ~$4000 per year, this puts healthcare at nearly 20% of my total expenses.
Nothing else is particularly interesting. That $22,700 figure is a reasonable real-world number for me, but for future planning I'd still inflate that to $25,000 just to have more wiggle room. I may look into traveling this year, which would add some expense.
Investments:
Vanguard Investments: (All in VTSAX)
Other LTCG holdings: $145,000 -> $291,000 (other investment accounts and bitcoin)
HSA Investment Account: $6000 -> $7400, with another $1700 in the "cash" holdings of the HSA.
$9000 cash in Money Market & Checking Account.
Finances Going Forward
I had earned income last year so I didn't start my Roth Conversion Ladder last year. This year I decided I will be converting the $12,400 standard deduction + $9600 of the first tax bracket for a nice round $22,000 converted. Yes I'll owe a little bit of taxes, but it sets up my Roth with $22k in 5 years which should cover the majority of my expenses. And with $350k currently in tIRA and converting $22,000 per year, I won't be able to chew through it all before actual retirement age.
I have about $20k from an old stock purchase plan that unlocks come April, which I will be selling and likely moving over to my money market account to shore up my "cash" holdings.
My plan is to not really tap any of my "normal" investment accounts for as long as possible. I've been deferring to selling Bitcoin if I need to move some cash over. Last year I sold 3 bitcoin, one for $9300 in June, and then two at the end of December (for tax year Capital Gains reasons) for $7300 each. These were all LTCG at 0% taxed. AGI for last year is around $35,000.
The Living Part:
There's all the boring expenses and financial stuff. Now for the ever painful question that my beloved Grandmother loves to ask, "But gosh, what do you do with all of your time! I can't imagine being retired at your age!"
Step 1, restful sleep. During my working career I lived off 6 hours of sleep every day. It made for exhausting weekends trying to "make it up." And luckily I'm not a generally stressful person or else it'd have been worse. But now I go to bed when I'm tired, and whenever I naturally wake up, I get up. This can lead to VERY weird hours since I'm often an extreme night owl. But I generally get 9-10 perfect restful uninterrupted dream-filled hours of sleep.
I'm betrayed by my "Food Expense" breakdown, but I really am cooking more and eating better. I drink a lot of coffee and water at home and generally try to eat only one meal per day, but sometimes lunch and dinner. I don't normally eat breakfast, just have coffee when I wake up. And did I mention how much less painful it is to go grocery shopping when it's in the middle of the day and everyone's at work. It's so nice.
I spend a lot of time on reddit browsing my front page, and I check out the YouTubers I follow that post daily, then check out any of the irregular posters. Depending on how much good stuff there is, this could go on for a few hours.
I have a lot of hours playing video games. I tend toward puzzle games or building games (Factorio, Satisfactory) because they scratch that itch in my engineering brain. There are times at night where I'll spend hours on this website: https://www.puzzle-sudoku.com/ and play Sudoku or Nonograms or any of the other puzzle types on the bottom of the page.
I'm doing my best to watch every single last show on Netflix. It's a daunting task, though it's surprising how often I drift back toward watching the same smattering of Star Trek: The Next Generation episodes rather than try something new. But I try and take recommendations and work my way through shows.
And Podcasts! The joy of joys is when I come across a new-to-me podcast that has a huge backlog. I found a great ST:TNG rewatch podcast that had 108 episodes already done. I spent like 2 months watching the episode of TNG then immediately listening to their podcast about that episode, repeat repeat repeat. I'm currently working my way through The Adventure Zone, I'm on episode 46 of 155 with them. And they keep advertising the other podcasts The McElroys do so I'm sure I'll roll into one of those next. For many people podcasts are background noise, but I'll often just sit on the couch and concentrate on just listening the podcast.
Outside of home, I can't wait for the weather to get nicer so I can go on more walks. Being a night owl I like going for walks at night. I live near our city center so I'm within blocks of city hall, the main library branch, and the fountain / park.
I jump at any opportunity to hang out with friends. It's just about every weekend that we are getting together to hang out and play board games. Like I mentioned in one of the breakdowns, I've started to play D&D with my buddy and his wife. I'd never played before but he's been DMing for years (but hasn't had a group for 10+ years now). He's glad to be playing again, his wife loves it, and it's super convenient for them to stay home with the 5 month old daughter. (And baby gets to hang out with Uncle Oracle.)
I get together with former co-workers every few months to keep in touch with them. One in particular I have a standing every-2-month bar date with. I remind them every so often that if they want to go out to lunch ever to just call me.
Personal History
Just a quick personal history in closing. I was an automotive engineer working for OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers in the Metro Detroit area. In the 2008 downturn I lost my job and was unemployed for 2 years and ended up getting my house foreclosed in 2010. By the time i got a job in March of 2010 I was basically at $0. I had a tiny amount in an 401k, had about $20,000 in credit card debt from being unemployed.
But then I got a very well paying engineering job ($108k annual and eligible for time-and-half overtime). I kept living like I was unemployed, spent as little as possible and saved as much as possible. Through my parents I secured a mortgage on a nice 1 Bed / 1 Bath 900 sq ft condo. I paid off my CC debt in less than a year and kept banking cash and maxing my 401k every year.
I heard about bitcoin in early 2013 (from a guildmate in World of Warcraft, believe it or not) and jumped on board. All time bitcoin price chart (log scale) for those unfamiliar with the history. I got in before the first spike to $1000 in December of 2013, and kept buying throughout the downswing in 2014 / 2015. In 2017 I sold 5.6 BTC for a total of $6000 and paid off the last of my student loans and my car, then a few months later I sold 4.25 BTC for $6700 and paid off the last of my condo mortgage. So in May of 2017 I was officially debt free and had a net worth of about $200,000.
Then in the fall of 2017 was when bitcoin exploded. I knew I had to take profits here. Every time the price went up 10% I sold another bitcoin. $7500, $9000, $10700, $13000, $15500, $18600. I sold all the way up. I ended up selling about $100,000 in bitcoin that year and I pushed most of it into my Roth IRA and Brokerage accounts.
Then I really started thinking about FIRE in early 2018. Started doing the math, tried to see what my expenses would be, and thought I'd give it ago. I've told myself from day 1 that I'd give this trial a solid 2 years. If I don't feel good about it, or the money doesn't seem right, then I'll still only be 40 years old and could (IMO) easily jump right back into an engineering gig. So I targeted early 2019 so I could frontload my 401k for two months, grab the annual bonus, then peace out.
TL:DR: 38, FIREd, Money's looking right, Life is feeling right, everything is fine
submitted by Oracle_of_FIRE to financialindependence [link] [comments]

MCS | The Record High Gold Price! What's going to happen to the price of Bitcoin, the digital gold?

MCS | The Record High Gold Price! What's going to happen to the price of Bitcoin, the digital gold?

\This post has been written by Hedgehog, an MCS influencer and one of Korea's famous cryptocurrency key opinion leaders.*

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#Be_a_Trader!

Greetings from MCS, the derivatives trading platform where traders ALWAYS come first.

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For the first time in history, the world gold price has topped $2,000 an ounce. Quantitative easing in major countries has brought astronomical amounts into the financial markets. In addition, Nasdaq is also setting a new high in anticipation of further economic stimulus agreements in the US this week.
Financial experts cite the followings for the main causes of the recent gold rally.
👉 First, experts analyze this intensification of the gold rally was caused by the stuttered US dollar rebound and the lowered US Treasury yield. In particular, as the US government's discussion on further economic stimulus measures to alleviate the global economic damage caused by COVID-19 from Wuhan, China is expected to come to an agreement this week, many speculate that this will lead to a drop in dollar value. Although the White House, Republicans, and Democrats have yet to narrow their views on additional stimulus measures prolonging the negotiation, it is very likely that the release of more dollars in the market, in the sense that everyone agrees on the need for additional stimulus, will relatively increase the value of gold.
👉 Second, some say that “the central banks in many countries will continue to buy gold to promote gold prices” referring to cases where central banks' buying of gold increased their gold prices during the 2009 global financial crisis.

"How high will the gold price go❓ "
Most experts believe that the gold price is still far from its limit. Especially, the Goldman Sachs Group is looking at $2,300 an ounce, Bank of America from $2,500 an ounce to up to $3,000 an ounce, and RBC Capital Market $3,000 an ounce.

https://preview.redd.it/vdk9z7251cf51.png?width=1308&format=png&auto=webp&s=057fc3749ebb69d881d5c0f1dbb35e8d075c7b89
The price of Bitcoin, also known as a safe digital asset, also remains in the $11,100 to $11,300 range ever since it recently broke the highest point of $12,000.

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Bitcoin, the No. 1 market capitalization among cryptocurrencies, has a market capitalization of approximately 200 billion USD as of August 5, 2020. This is more than the global stock valuations of Intel and Coca-Cola.

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A cryptocurrency media outlet, CoinDesk recently said that "Bitcoin recently hit a market high of $11,480, but there was a sign of buyer (buying force) fatigue in the technology chart. If the price falls below $11,000, it could retreat back to, before resistance now support, $10,500 (the highest point in February). However, if Bitcoin continues to settle above $11,400 on the time chart, it is highly likely that the rally will go above the latest high beyond $12,000".
I believe now that the value of gold, a famous safe asset, is the highest ever as the U.S. government has tentatively agreed to invest an additional $1 trillion in economic stimulus, the Bitcoin is also preparing to its rally again. I also think that since it is the post-halving period with the good news waiting in line including the Ethereum 2.0, we have enough momentum to rally more than $20,000 by the end of the year.

💡 "Nothing is permanent in this wicked world - not even our troubles." - Charlie Chaplin
All financial assets, including Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency leader, cannot be bullish forever. In the long run, they can gradually rise by stepping up the lowest price point, but there are a lot of ups and downs along the way. MCS traders can enjoy a bull market while preparing for a bear market on the one hand.

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On UPbit and Bithumb, the major cryptocurrency exchanges in Korea, one can profit in a bull market, but it is very difficult to realize profits in a bear market, nless you are a master of flipping,. As a result, many cryptocurrency traders will turn their attention to cryptocurrency derivatives exchanges in bear markets.
After a successful launch of the Bitcoin perpetual contract product, the trading market on MCS is vigorously moving. The perpetual contract, one of Bitcoin derivatives, can short sell (betting on price drop) in the bear market, making it easy to profit even if the full-fledged bear market starts. In addition, even in today's bull market, you can take long positions (betting on rising prices), and you can use leverage to amplify your investment beyond the assets managed you own, enabling very effective Bitcoin trading.
*If you use leverage, the risk is significantly higher, so please be cautious of the risk and trade safely.
I hope this post helped you to understand the pros and cons of Bitcoin perpetual contract better, and I really wish that you realize your financial freedom on MCS, a cryptocurrency derivatives trading platform!!
I am a Bitcoin margin trader, Hedgehog. Thank you for reading this post.

Traders ALWAYS come first on MCS.
Thank you.

MCS Website: https://mycoinstory.com/
MCS Official Twitter (EN): https://twitter.com/mycoinstory_mcs
MCS Official Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MyCoinStory.official
MCS Telegram Chat (EN): https://t.me/mycoinstory_EN
submitted by MyCoinStory to MyCoinStory [link] [comments]

Bitcoin | Kya hota hai aur kaise kaam karta hai | Explained in Hindi.

Bitcoin | Kya hota hai aur kaise kaam karta hai | Explained in Hindi.
Post URL: https://youtu.be/XHGqDIRfnJg

https://preview.redd.it/jwjsx196cyf51.jpg?width=3264&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2ee223e71a8a5ff9e1a1957cbc1771b4ba056484
Bitcoin | Kya hota hai aur kaise kaam karta hai | Explained in Hindi.
What is bitcoin?
What is cryptocurrency?
What is block-chain?
History of bitcoin and it's origin. How bitcoin functions and performs?
All the questions are covered in this video and also you can check the 'Bitcoin | Cryptocurrency' playlist for detail information.

Get information on a complete topic such as Indian stock exchange, stock market, share market, bull market, bullish market, bearish market, nifty and sensex, stock chart, stock exchanges, etc to understand the various meanings and other details in the stock market.

To learn more about stock market, finance and business, visit our website: https://www.nividbook.com

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Graphics: www.freepik.com

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TkeyNet: switching to a new Protocol, testing, main theses

TkeyNet: switching to a new Protocol, testing, main theses

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In a series of publications: Coming TkeyNet and listing on exchanges and TkeyNet: release date, a brief analysis of the system, plans-revealed the General characteristics of the new TkeyNet system, which we will all switch to soon.
Given the volume of material, it was possible to miss the main theses or interpret them in their way, while the question ”why now“ was ignored.
Today we will review the main questions and tell you about the testing process of TkeyNet.

Why will the switching to TkeyNet take place this year, and not later, as planned?

Let’s look at the project history. The TKEY concept dates back to October 2017, and it was in the fourth quarter of 2017 that the distributed infrastructure concept was approved. In early 2018, the formation of the TkeyNet architecture began.
To make the whole course of events clear, we highlighted the main points and commented on them:
The projected development period for TkeyNet is 2.5–3 years.
This forecast was made in 2018 when the development of TkeyNet began.

The course of events that was part of our strategy

Core 1.0 launch and exchange
The company planned to launch a Protocol based on Core 1.0 and conduct a subsequent listing of the asset on the exchange in late 2018-in the first half of 2019. Depending on the completion of work on Core 1.0.
Why launch Core 1.0? There is a fixed practice in the market when a project starts on a ready-made blockchain, and then switches to its own, for example, EOS. This project was launched based on the Ethereum blockchain, and later the transition to its Protocol was made.
Our main task was to launch a Protocol with non-standard technical solutions for the market and enter the auction to expand the project audience and obtain liquidity for the asset.
With an increase in the asset price, the company would be able to increase its financial resources and reinvest them in the development of the project. Thus, the launch of a blockchain-based on Core 1.0 fully met these tasks.
In Core 1.0, new transaction models introduced and multi-blockchain support implemented. The first version of the Protocol supported the inclusion of 10 separate chains. The mechanics allowed you to change the number of parallel chains in the blockchain. To increase throughput, the team implemented PostgreSQL support, instead of the typical key-value database that is present in most cryptocurrencies.
Switching to Core 2.0 during trading and then switching to TkeyNet
Next, the plan was to upgrade the network to Core 2.0 and continuously modify it. The modification means the gradual implementation of functionality and standards from TkeyNet so that it is easy to make the transition from Core 2.0 to the new TkeyNet Protocol during trading on the exchange.
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In 2019, a Core 1.0 — based system launched. The year was simultaneously busy: the first presentation of TkeyNet at APA-2019, presence at IFC-2019, work on draft laws, and at the same time, the year was quite difficult for our company, which affected the timing shifts for products and all project plans in General. The listing did not take place.
Reasons for switching to TkeyNet
There is a silver lining. In the period from April to May, there was positive news from developers: work on TkeyNet will be completed much earlier than planned.
By the end of June, we were preparing to launch a test network based on TkeyNet, to start the final testing of all functions.
On June 22, 2020, the core 1.0 network suspended. For more information, see the link.
Shortly, we will be able to switch to TkeyNet and list the TKEY asset to crypto exchange.
Upon completion of the launch of TkeyNet, the official date of listing of TKEY on the trading platform will publish at the link: tkeycoin.com/start/;

What is TkeyNet?

We have already talked about TkeyNet in the previous article: TkeyNet-release date, a brief analysis of the system, further plans, gave examples of how the use of technology, told what products can be created based on TkeyNet, all this covered in General terms.
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In this publication, we share some theses so that you will gradually develop an objective picture of the new TkeyNet system and its capabilities, which many of you will be able to apply in the future in business or everyday life.
From the very beginning of development, — TkeyNet was intended to improve the existing financial system, not to replace it.
From a technical point of view, the system and its functionality entirely based on blockchain technology. However, this is not a classic variation, as, for example, with bitcoin, but the new implementation of It — more secure, more suitable for global use, more perfect. In simple words, our developers took the best from Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and other market leaders, combined their pros, eliminated their cons, and modified existing solutions on the market, resulting in new technology with new features.
For the user, TkeyNet is a fast payment network that allows you to store, use, and move various assets in the payment network, such as currencies, shares, real estate, and precious metals, etc. Businesses will be able to legally conduct international transfers in seconds and significantly save on transactions.
For developers and startups, this means best practices, infrastructure, liquidity, and access to ready-made solutions that can complete in their products.
Among competitors, TkeyNet is much faster than its predecessors, more profitable, and cheaper in terms of transactions.
For businesses and financial institutions, it is an infrastructure that will significantly improve existing financial processes, from payment routing to multi-level exchange and clearing operations.
If we compare the giants of the financial industry-banks, and the new paradigm — distributed payment systems, we will notice a significant difference. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies estimated at ≈340 billion US dollars and the capitalization of 10 world banks is 2 trillion dollars. A significant difference, don’t you agree?
http://www.outsourcingportal.eu/en/bitcoin-would-rank-as-8th-largest-bank-globally-with-169-billion-in-market-capitalization
You can’t argue with the numbers, and we must understand that banks remain vital objects of the financial system. Banks help us send funds within the country and abroad, and provide a lot of services, such as loans, deposits, and a lot of other services.
Anyway, using cryptocurrency, users actively exchange it for Fiat currencies to pay for any formed needs. Therefore, TkeyNet will serve as a bridge between fiat and digital currencies, providing its users with best practices and tools through which we will all have access to various digital and cash at any time and anywhere in the world.
The Asian Parliamentary Assembly actively raised the issue of trust and the development of financial products in underdeveloped countries. The problem in such countries is total state control of property registers. Citizens prefer to dispose of their funds in informal settings because they do not consider state systems reliable.
The representatives of the senior management of the TKEY group of companies — Pavel Yakimov (the Director of Information Technologies) and Maxim Yakimov attended these discussions. Both of them recommended several approaches to develop a digital framework that can combat money laundering, and also illustrated open investment platforms, security, and data exchange systems that are based on TKEY distributed solutions. © — businessinsider.com
According to the World Bank alone, about 1.7–1.8 billion people do not have accounts in any financial institution, and about 47% of them located in developing countries. The problem of interaction between a person and a financial institution consists of three main reasons: poverty, trust issues, and geographical difficulties. With systems such as TkeyNet, it is possible to connect people and financial institutions with a single source of trust. With the use of such systems, a person does not need anything other than access to the Internet.
https://www.statista.com/chart/18497/countries-with-the-highest-share-of-adults-without-a-bank-account-in-2017/

The investments that bring us all together

On the other hand, the audience of the TKEY project is quite diverse: our investors represent a variety of professions, a variety of cities, and a variety of age groups. However, one thing, nevertheless, unites us all — this thing is an investment. And therefore, some of the users may not be interested in technical details or the difference between 1.0, 2.0, or TkeyNet. But at least the thesis, the main message, must be understood by absolutely everyone.
The more popular the company’s products are on the market, the stronger it is and the development. Due to the reliability of the company, the prices of its assets grow.
Whether you are interested in technology or not, the company’s development will directly affect the reliability of its assets. Each of us knows that any cooperation, any news is a reason to move on the stock exchange. TkeyNet opens up these opportunities to us, provides several strategically profitable, and importantly — stable partnerships with financial institutions. The number of users in the digital payments segment expected to reach 4,636,34 million by 2024.

https://www.statista.com/outlook/295/100/fintech/worldwide#market-revenue
https://www.statista.com/statistics/647231/worldwide-blockchain-technology-market-size/

Testing the TkeyNet system

From 22 to 24 July, the test network TkeyNet was successfully launched.
Our team is currently actively testing the entire network and conducting a security audit. Developers are testing the network with different scenarios: security, reliability of the full system, as well as individual modules and functions.
Given the different number of similar-looking formulations, but at the same time completely different from each other, some users wondered what is the difference between such concepts: Mainnet, Testnet, and TkeyNet.
Testnet should consider as a demonstration network for testing, testing concepts, new features, experiments, and debugging without the risk of losing any data. Testnet is a polygon for the development team that used to improve the system and introduce new features.
Mainnet (Main Network) this is a complete product, ready to use.
TkeyNet is the name of the infrastructure, the entire system that we are developing, and Testnet and Mainnet are technical concepts within this system.
After testing the system is complete, TkeyNet will launch. We will issue instructions on how to upgrade to the new Protocol and new software, respectively.
Testing takes place without any excesses, and the launch of TkeyNet is just around the corner.
Thank you for being with us! Follow the project news to stay up to date. If you missed the latest news, you read the notification on the site: https://tkeycoin.com/en/news/.
submitted by tkeycoin to Tkeycoin_Official [link] [comments]

For Trading July 15th

For Trading JULY 15th
JPM Earnings a Beat But Loan Loss Grows 875%
NASDAQ Still Weaker
MODERNA Publishes Results
Today’s market got off to a soft start and after an initial dip it started up. The exception was the NASDAQ. I went home with a few SMH puts and as that ETF fell quickly, I took a nice gain only to see it reverse and move higher with the rest of the markets. The early excitement with the DJIA futures quickly evaporated and we didn’t do much from 11:00 – 1:00 but then started higher and after a new high of day, +450 or so, we sold off from 3:00 to 3:30 before another rally to new high of day and a close +556.79 (2.13%), NASDAQ +97.74 (.94%), S&P 500 +42.30 (1.34%), the Russell +24.69 (1.76%) and the DJ Transports +159.29 (1.71%). Market internals were about as expected for an up day with the NYSE 2:1 and NASDAQ 5:3 after its lower open and rally. Volume was down slightly lower than yesterday. The DJIA showed all 30 names up with the biggest winner UNH +60DP’s (earning tomorrow morning), HD +55, AAPL and CAT +43, MCD +39, and TRV, MCD, and V all adding 30 DP’s. The strongest sectors were energy, industrials, health care and materials. Weaker were consumer discretionary and financials. The U.S. Dollar continued weak and commodities were generally higher. Economic numbers, CPI was released this morning and came in at + .6% for CPI, up from an expected .5%, and Core CPI was + .2% vs .1% expected. This meant that the numbers showed benign consume inflation, although anyone who shops in a grocery store knows that’s not the case!
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s highly informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/PcshhlWfjIc
SECTORS: JP Morgan (JPM) reported earnings that were a beat on both earnings and revenues, but after the numbers moved the stock up in early extended trading, the market started looking at the fact that JPM increased its Loan Loss provisions increased from $1.2billion to a monstrous $10.5billion, an 875% increase. The stock had traded as high as $102.50 early, a level that it never achieved in the official market session. The stock finished $98.21 +.56 (.57%). Also reporting were WFC with a loss and was $24.25 -1.16 (4.57%), C also a disappointment finishing $50.15 -2.05 (3.93%), TRV a loss but closed $118.55 +4.31 (3.77%). Delta (DAL) reported their biggest loss in history and revenues back at 1980’s levels. It fell to 26.11 -.71 (2.65%). The January high was $62.48. On the good news side, Moderna (MRNA) reported that their trial of its Covid-19 vaccine produced twice the therapeutic response of patients that had actually recovered from the disease. The stock, a star since the government gave them a grant to help with the development of the vaccine has moved from a low around $18.00 to $87.00 in May had finished the day $75.04 +3.26 (4.54%) ran up to a new high of $89.76 and is currently trading $86.38 + 11.34 or an additional 12%.
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN +1.16, BGS +.80, FLO +.32, CPB +.83, CAG +1.13, MDLZ +1.20, KHC +1.01, CALM +.15, JJSF +2.19, SAFM +1.24, HRL +1.03, SJM +2.51, and PBJ $16.30 +.06 (.37%).
BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +4.75, ABBV +2.89, REGN +27.12, ISRG +15.21, GILD -.18, MYL +.37, TEVA +.13, VRTX +9.01, BHC +.33, INCY +2.46, ICPT +.27, LABU +6.31, and IBB $116.00 +4.75 (3.46%).
CANNABIS: was HIGHER with TLRY +.17, CGC +.15, CRON +.13, GWPH +6.31, ACB -.18, CURLF -.07, KERN -.16, and MJ $13.34 +.14 (1.79%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +3.55, GD +.54, TXT +.78, NOC +4.15, BWXT -.42, TDY +7.52, RTX +2.04, and ITA $159.61 +2.56 (1.63%).
RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.35, JWN +.05, KSS +.78, DDS +.75, WMT +2.84, TGT +1.77, TJX +.19, RL +2.27, UAA +.08, LULU +5.85, TPR +.10, CPRI +.09, and XRT $43.96 +.86 (2.00%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +15.77, AMZ -16.68, AAPL +8.39, FB +1.85, NFLX -4.00, NVDA +15.11, TSLA +66.84, BABA -1.19, BIDU -1.54, CMG +21.08, CAT +7.74, BA +7.51, DIS +4.88, and XLK $107.56 +1.72 (1.63%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +7.37, JPM +1.45, BAC +.23, MS +.88, C -1.23, PNC +.32, AIG +1.28, TRV +7.13, AXP +2.89, V +5.48, and XLF $23.95 +.39 (1.66%).
OIL, $40.29 +19. Oil was lower in last night’s trading before we rallied in the morning. I mentioned in last night’s charts with comments section in the Weekly Strategies letter, prices are trying to work higher towards $45.00. We needed a close over the previous high close of $40.83 and while we were there, we sold off to close below that number. The stocks were higher with XLE $37.00 +1.65 (4.67%).
GOLD $1,813.40 -.70. It was a continuation rally and a new recovery high of $1,829.80. I have only the NEM August 65 / 70 spread on in the Gold market while we have been back in the Silver (SLV) calls @ $ .92 from Friday. Silver rallied from a down overnight session and the calls closed $1.28 +.16. We also added a GLD 7/24 170 call position @ $1.22 that finished $1.59 +.20.
BITCOIN: closed $9,310 + 40. After trading back to 8985 we rallied back to close – only $5. Since last week we have closed between 9200 – 92.85 every day with narrow ranges and today was a good start to move higher. A break over 10,000 still sends us higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $9.73 + .13 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

Murmurs of the Sea | Monthly Portfolio Update - March 2020

Only the sea, murmurous behind the dingy checkerboard of houses, told of the unrest, the precariousness, of all things in this world.
-Albert Camus, The Plague
This is my fortieth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal.
Portfolio goal
My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars).
This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent.
Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $662 776
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $39 044
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $74 099
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $109 500
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $150 095
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $29 852
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $197 149
Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 630
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $7 855
NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $6 156
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $119 254
Secured physical gold – $19 211
Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $13 106
Bitcoin – $115 330
Raiz* app (Aggressive portfolio) – $15 094
Spaceship Voyager* app (Index portfolio) – $2 303
BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 492
Total portfolio value: $1 566 946 (-$236 479 or -13.1%)
Asset allocation
Australian shares – 40.6% (4.4% under)
Global shares – 22.3%
Emerging markets shares – 2.3%
International small companies – 3.0%
Total international shares – 27.6% (2.4% under)
Total shares – 68.3% (6.7% under)
Total property securities – 0.2% (0.2% over)
Australian bonds – 4.8%
International bonds – 10.4%
Total bonds – 15.2% (0.2% over)
Gold – 8.8%
Bitcoin – 7.4%
Gold and alternatives – 16.2% (6.2% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
Comments
This month saw an extremely rapid collapse in market prices for a broad range of assets across the world, driven by the acceleration of the Coronavirus pandemic.
Broad and simultaneous market falls have resulted in the single largest monthly fall in portfolio value to date of around $236 000.
This represents a fall of 13 per cent across the month, and an overall reduction of more the 16 per cent since the portfolio peak of January.
[Chart]
The monthly fall is over three times more severe than any other fall experienced to date on the journey. Sharpest losses have occurred in Australian equities, however, international shares and bonds have also fallen.
A substantial fall in the Australia dollar has provided some buffer to international equity losses - limiting these to around 8 per cent. Bitcoin has also fallen by 23 per cent. In short, in the period of acute market adjustment - as often occurs - the benefits of diversification have been temporarily muted.
[Chart]
The last monthly update reported results of some initial simplified modelling on the impact of a hypothetical large fall in equity markets on the portfolio.
Currently, the actual asset price falls look to register in between the normal 'bear market', and the more extreme 'Global Financial Crisis Mark II' scenarios modelled. Absent, at least for the immediate phase, is a significant diversification offset - outside of a small (4 per cent) increase in the value of gold.
The continued sharp equity market losses have left the portfolio below its target Australian equity weighting, so contributions this month have been made to Vanguard's Australian shares ETF (VAS). This coming month will see quarterly distributions paid for the A200, VGS and VAS exchange traded funds - totalling around $2700 - meaning a further small opportunity to reinvest following sizeable market falls.
Reviewing the evidence on the history of stock market falls
Vladimir Lenin once remarked that there are decades where nothing happen, and then there are weeks in which decades happen. This month has been four such weeks in a row, from initial market responses to the coronavirus pandemic, to unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy responses aimed at lessening the impact.
Given this, it would be foolish to rule out the potential for other extreme steps that governments have undertaken on multiple occasions before. These could include underwriting of banks and other debt liabilities, effective nationalisation or rescues of critical industries or providers, or even temporary closure of some financial or equity markets.
There is a strong appeal for comforting narratives in this highly fluid investment environment, including concepts such as buying while distress selling appears to be occurring, or delaying investing until issues become 'more clear'.
Nobody can guarantee that investments made now will not be made into cruel short-lived bear market rallies, and no formulas exist that will safely and certainly minimise either further losses, or opportunities forgone. Much financial independence focused advice in the early stages of recent market falls focused on investment commonplaces, with a strong flavour of enthusiasm at the potential for 'buying the dip'.
Yet such commonly repeated truths turn out to be imperfect and conditional in practice. One of the most influential studies of a large sample of historical market falls turns out to provide mixed evidence that buying following a fall reliably pays off. This study (pdf) examines 101 stock market declines across four centuries of data, and finds that:
Even these findings should be viewed as simply indicative. Each crisis and economic phase has its unique character, usually only discernible in retrospect. History, in these cases, should inform around the potential outlines of events that can be considered possible. As the saying goes, risk is what remains after you believe you have thought of everything.
Position fixing - alternative perspectives of progress
In challenging times it can help to keep a steady view of progress from a range of perspectives. Extreme market volatility and large falls can be disquieting for both recent investors and those closer to the end of the journey.
One perspective on what has occurred is that the portfolio has effectively been pushed backwards in time. That is, the portfolio now sits at levels it last occupied in April 2019. Even this perspective has some benefit, highlighting that by this metric all that has been lost is the strong forward progress made in a relatively short time.
Yet each perspective can hide and distort key underlying truths.
As an example, while the overall portfolio is currently valued at around the same dollar value as a year ago, it is not the same portfolio. Through new purchases and reinvestments in this period, many more actual securities (mostly units in ETFs) have been purchased.
The chart below sets out the growth in total units held from January 2019 to this month, across the three major exchange trade funds holdings in the portfolio.
[Chart]
From this it can be seen that the number of securities held - effectively, individual claims on the future earnings of the firms in these indexes - has more than doubled over the past fifteen months. Through this perspective, the accumulation of valuable assets shows a far more constant path.
Though this can help illuminate progress, as a measure it also has limitations. The realities of falls in market values cannot be elided by such devices, and some proportion of those market falls represent initial reassessments of the likely course of future earnings, and therefore the fundamental value of each of those ETF units.
With significant uncertainty over the course of global lock-downs, trade and growth, the basis of these reassessments may provide accurate, or not. For anyone to discount all of these reassessments as wholly the temporary result of irrational panic is to show a remarkable confidence in one's own analytical capacities.
Similarly, it would be equally wrong to extrapolate from market falls to a permanent constraining of the impulse of humanity to innovate, adjust to changed conditions, seek out opportunities and serve others for profit.
Lines of position - Trends in expenditure
A further longer-term perspective regularly reviewed is monthly expenses compared to average distributions.
Monthly expenditure continues to be below average, and is likely to fall further next month as a natural result of a virus-induced reduction of shopping trips, events and outings.
[Chart]
As occurred last month, as a function some previous high distributions gradually falling outside of the data 'window' for the rolling three-year comparison of distributions and expenditure, a downward slope in distributions continues.
Progress
Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 71.9% 97.7% Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 87.7% 119.2% Total expenses – $89 000 pa 70.2% 95.5%
Summary
This month has been one of the most surprising and volatile of the entire journey, with significant daily movements in portfolio value and historic market developments. There has been more to watch and observe than at any time in living memory.
The dominant sensation has been that of travelling backwards through time, and revisiting a stage of the journey already passed. The progress of the last few months has actually been so rapid, that this backwards travel has felt less like a set back, but rather more like a temporary revisitation of days past.
It is unclear how temporary a revisitation current conditions will enforce, or exactly how this will affect the rest of the journey. In early January I estimated that if equity market fell by 33 per cent through early 2020 with no offsetting gains in other portfolio elements, this could push out the achievement of the target to January 2023.
Even so, experiencing these markets and with more volatility likely, I don't feel there is much value in seeking to rapidly recalculate the path from here, or immediately alter the targeted timeframe. Moving past the portfolio target from here in around a year looks almost impossibly challenging, but time exists to allow this fact to settle. Too many other, more important, human and historical events are still playing out.
In such times, taking diverse perspectives on the same facts is important. This Next Life recently produced this interesting meditation on the future of FIRE during this phase of economic hardship. In addition, the Animal Spirits podcast also provided a thoughtful perspective on current market falls compared to 2008, as does this article by Early Retirement Now. Such analysis, and each passing day, highlights that the murmurs of the sea are louder than ever before, reminding us of the precariousness of all things.
The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
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For Trading July 15th

JPM Earnings a Beat But Loan Loss Grows 875%
NASDAQ Still Weaker
MODERNA Publishes Results
See Gold to see some our open option positions..
Today’s market got off to a soft start and after an initial dip it started up. The exception was the NASDAQ. I went home with a few SMH puts and as that ETF fell quickly, I took a nice gain only to see it reverse and move higher with the rest of the markets. The early excitement with the DJIA futures quickly evaporated and we didn’t do much from 11:00 – 1:00 but then started higher and after a new high of day, +450 or so, we sold off from 3:00 to 3:30 before another rally to new high of day and a close +556.79 (2.13%), NASDAQ +97.74 (.94%), S&P 500 +42.30 (1.34%), the Russell +24.69 (1.76%) and the DJ Transports +159.29 (1.71%).
Market internals were about as expected for an up day with the NYSE 2:1 and NASDAQ 5:3 after its lower open and rally. Volume was down slightly lower than yesterday. The DJIA showed all 30 names up with the biggest winner UNH +60DP’s (earning tomorrow morning), HD +55, AAPL and CAT +43, MCD +39, and TRV, MCD, and V all adding 30 DP’s. The strongest sectors were energy, industrials, health care and materials. Weaker were consumer discretionary and financials. The U.S. Dollar continued weak and commodities were generally higher. Economic numbers, CPI was released this morning and came in at + .6% for CPI, up from an expected .5%, and Core CPI was + .2% vs .1% expected. This meant that the numbers showed benign consume inflation, although anyone who shops in a grocery store knows that’s not the case!
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/PcshhlWfjIc
Our Discord forum link is in the video description..
SECTORS: JP Morgan (JPM) reported earnings that were a beat on both earnings and revenues, but after the numbers moved the stock up in early extended trading, the market started looking at the fact that JPM increased its Loan Loss provisions increased from $1.2billion to a monstrous $10.5billion, an 875% increase. The stock had traded as high as $102.50 early, a level that it never achieved in the official market session. The stock finished $98.21 +.56 (.57%). Also reporting were WFC with a loss and was $24.25 -1.16 (4.57%), C also a disappointment finishing $50.15 -2.05 (3.93%), TRV a loss but closed $118.55 +4.31 (3.77%). Delta (DAL) reported their biggest loss in history and revenues back at 1980’s levels. It fell to 26.11 -.71 (2.65%). The January high was $62.48.
On the good news side, Moderna (MRNA) reported that their trial of its Covid-19 vaccine produced twice the therapeutic response of patients that had actually recovered from the disease. The stock, a star since the government gave them a grant to help with the development of the vaccine has moved from a low around $18.00 to $87.00 in May had finished the day $75.04 +3.26 (4.54%) ran up to a new high of $89.76 and is currently trading $86.38 + 11.34 or an additional 12%.
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN +1.16, BGS +.80, FLO +.32, CPB +.83, CAG +1.13, MDLZ +1.20, KHC +1.01, CALM +.15, JJSF +2.19, SAFM +1.24, HRL +1.03, SJM +2.51, and PBJ $16.30 +.06 (.37%).
BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +4.75, ABBV +2.89, REGN +27.12, ISRG +15.21, GILD -.18, MYL +.37, TEVA +.13, VRTX +9.01, BHC +.33, INCY +2.46, ICPT +.27, LABU +6.31, and IBB $116.00 +4.75 (3.46%).
CANNABIS: was HIGHER with TLRY +.17, CGC +.15, CRON +.13, GWPH +6.31, ACB -.18, CURLF -.07, KERN -.16, and MJ $13.34 +.14 (1.79%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +3.55, GD +.54, TXT +.78, NOC +4.15, BWXT -.42, TDY +7.52, RTX +2.04, and ITA $159.61 +2.56 (1.63%).
RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.35, JWN +.05, KSS +.78, DDS +.75, WMT +2.84, TGT +1.77, TJX +.19, RL +2.27, UAA +.08, LULU +5.85, TPR +.10, CPRI +.09, and XRT $43.96 +.86 (2.00%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +15.77, AMZ -16.68, AAPL +8.39, FB +1.85, NFLX -4.00, NVDA +15.11, TSLA +66.84, BABA -1.19, BIDU -1.54, CMG +21.08, CAT +7.74, BA +7.51, DIS +4.88, and XLK $107.56 +1.72 (1.63%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +7.37, JPM +1.45, BAC +.23, MS +.88, C -1.23, PNC +.32, AIG +1.28, TRV +7.13, AXP +2.89, V +5.48, and XLF $23.95 +.39 (1.66%).
OIL, $40.29 +19. Oil was lower in last night’s trading before we rallied in the morning. I mentioned in last night’s charts with comments section in the Weekly Strategies letter, prices are trying to work higher towards $45.00. We needed a close over the previous high close of $40.83 and while we were there, we sold off to close below that number. The stocks were higher with XLE $37.00 +1.65 (4.67%).
GOLD $1,813.40 -.70. It was a continuation rally and a new recovery high of $1,829.80. I have only the NEM August 65 / 70 spread on in the Gold market while we have been back in the Silver (SLV) calls @ $ .92 from Friday. Silver rallied from a down overnight session and the calls closed $1.28 +.16. We also added a GLD 7/24 170 call position @ $1.22 that finished $1.59 +.20.
BITCOIN: closed $9,310 + 40. After trading back to 8985 we rallied back to close – only $5. Since last week we have closed between 9200 – 92.85 every day with narrow ranges and today was a good start to move higher. A break over 10,000 still sends us higher. We added 350 shares of GBTC @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $9.73 + .13 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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I cannot wait to see newbies get pumped and dumped upon during this "muh halvening", it's like watching a new freshman class adapt to the harsh reality of high school when school opens...

I've been in crypto since 2017, not entirely an OG but I did make over 2 million dollars and was heavily invested for a bit over 2 years (it was my full time job after my first 200k). Believe me, I've seen it ALL. The greed, the lies, the bullshit, the scamming, the desperation, the fear, the elation/euphoria. Before that, I played the stock market as well, though not as successfully as crypto.
You're not likely to see another 2017 again... that was crypto's mainstream introduction to the world and the FOMO was off the charts and people got burned HARD, but what we do see is the crypto market makers capitalize on every single opportunity to make a quick buck. There is no reason for BTC to pump because of the halvening, that is a completely fabricated narrative to drive up the price. less mined bitcoin doesn't suddenly increase the value of bitcoin.
Do people not seem to understand that if BTC was miraculously adopted as the "world currency", then the world would be even MORE unequal and unfair than it is today? Using current USD equivalent value, you would have people who are worth 10 TRILLION dollars for doing nothing but buying and holding early, and other people who wouldn't even own half of what the poorest African does.
Does this not strike people as absurd? To really think that bitcoin would "free us" from financial control? This is the reality about money: Money derives it's power first from MILITARY FORCE, and secondly from the perception of economic stability. That's it.
Money isn't based off gold, or holding 21 bitcoins, or some other stupid shit like that. It's based off who has the biggest guns, and secondly off markets. I mean let's pretend that governments wouldn't suppress crypto when they feel like releasing their own digital currency, what the fuck would a world look like where bitcoin became the main currency???
Lol. Seriously, think about it. It would be the stupidest thing ever. There'd be nothing "decentralized" about it. it would concentrate more power into the hands of a few than we've EVER seen in history.
Anyways, I'm going to guess we pump to 11-12k then massive dump to 8k when corona outbreak round 2 happens. Don't get hurt, kiddos!
submitted by hellybeaner to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

For Trading April 13th

For Trading April 13th
Stocks Rally, Again
Oil Fails on Cutbacks
Today was another day in which the market rallied on bad news. First time unemployment claims were 6.6 million vs the 5 million expectations, a big number by itself. The FED hit the market with it’s announcement of a new $2.3 TRILLION of emergency lending to businesses and municipalities. The UK announced its plan to fund their fiscal needs and in Germany, Merkel rejected the Italians demand for a joint euro debt deal. U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment fell sharply to 71 vs. 89 in March and the consensus of 79.3. The DJIA finished +285.80 (1.22%), NASDAQ +62.68 (.77%), S&P 500 +39.84 (1.45%) the Russell again beat all others at +55.06 (4.62%) while the DJ Transports were +84.53 (1.04%). Market internals were 5.5:1 on NYSE and 3:1 NASDAQ. Volume was light again, but on a pre-holiday trading day that’s par for the course. Financials, real estate and Industrials were strong and Health care, technology and communication services weak. DJIA were 19 up and 11 lower with no triple-digit gainers or losers. JPM +58, GS +50, HD +49, and MCD +42 DPs, while UNH -22, jnj -14 and INTC -13 DPs. Tonight’s Closing Commentary is available https://youtu.be/O7pZP678FZs
There was also an excellent interview on CNBC HalfTime with Chamath Palihapitiya about bailouts and the American public that I’ve added. I think it’s especially interesting given that he is not a politician, but rather a venture capitalist. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/chamath-palihapitiya-us-needs-to-let-hedge-funds-billionaires-fail.html Besides this portion of the interview Chamath discusses that if the government wants to help “people” and make them even, they should take their last years W2 and pay them monthly what they earned last year and not to support the banks by taking illiquid assets off their balance sheets.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1800 members.
SECTORS:
BIOPHARMA: was MIXED with BIIB +3.05, ABBV +1.49, REGN +.63, ISRG -5.71, MYL +.85, TEVA +.34, VRTX -2.66, BHC +2.42 (15.43%), INCY -.94, ICPT +2.21, LABU +1.41 AND IBB $113.98 +1.04 (.92%).
CANNABIS: This group was MIXED with TLRY -.12, CGC -.23, CRON -.27, GWPH -1.32, ACB +.03, PYX +.30, NBEV -.03, CURLF +.06, KERN +.14, and MJ $11.45 +.14 (1.34%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +13.59, RTX +2.88, GD +4.11, TXT +1.55, NOC +7.33, BWXT +.85, TDY -1.23 and ITA $156.00 +5.05 (3.35%).
RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.91, JWN +2.68, KSS +3.08, DDS +.01, JCP +.025, WMT +.24, TGT -.23, TJX -.11, RL +4.25 (5.58%), UAA +.75, LULU +7.50, TPR +.93, CPRI -.08 and XRT $33.55 +1.17 (3.61%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were MIXED with GOOGL +1.00, AMZN +5.22, AAPL +3.08, FB +1.09, NFLX +.84, NVDA -2.70, TSLA +45.66 (8.32%), BABA -.08, BIDU +1.67, BA +8.63 (5.88%), CAT -1.50, DIS +4.48 and XLK $85.20 +.02 (.02%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +8.44, JPM +9.50 (10.07%), BAC +1.64, MS +1.90, C +3.74, PNC +6.50, AIG +2.42, TRV +4.97, AXP +3.42 and XLF $23.38 +1.19 (5.36%).
OIL, $22.76 -2.33. Oil started the day with the announcement that Russia and Saudi’s were in agreement about a cut in production of “up to” 20 million barrels/day. Later in the day the WSJ reported that the cuts were not as reported and involved cuts of only half that and only for a limited period of time. Prices had been higher by almost 13% before the reversal which sent priced -7%. In all of history, oil has only had this size range 3 times and 2 of those times were this month. Oil stocks were higher and XLE finished $34.75 +.53 (1.55%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,752.80 +68.50. After the recent gains, Gold broke solidly above $1,700 and traded as high as $1742 before falling back to close $60 off the highs and below $1700. Today was a major move to the upside and the close is the highest since September 2012 and sets up a move towards the highs at $1,800 from 2011.
BITCOIN: closed $7,290 -45. After we traded in a short-range day followed by a $1,000 range on Friday BTC closed above $7,000 for the first time since it broke to the downside early last month. While I want to add the 350 sold just over a week ago, I want to wait and see some stabilization. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $7.80 -.05 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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FAANG Slips again

For Trading MAY 28TH
FAANG Slips Again, Russell Surges ALL 11 S&P Sectors Higher
Today’s market was up after continued strength in the futures and markets around the world and although the DJIA ran well ahead for the first half of the day but by the close the only laggard was the NASDAQ. The DJIA finished +553.16 (2.21%), NASDA +72.14 (.77%), S&P 500 +43.36 (1.48%), the Russell +43.28 (3.11%) and the DJ Transports were +255 (2.86%). The DJIA was 25 up and only 5 down with the biggest winners being GS +92, UNH +60, AXP +48, MMM +41, JPM +38, CAT, BA, and HD all +43 DP’s. Market internals were a bit soft with volume roughly 30% lower than normal and A/D 3:1 on NYSE and NASDAQ >2:1 gainers. The strong sectors were financial, industrials and home builders while the weaker were Information tech (FAANG), communication services, consumer discretionary, and energy. On the news front we had those two do-nothing groups of legislators actually BOTH pass a bill for sanctions against China for violations of human rights. Unfortunately, that leaves the Orange Emperor still in charge of getting the message across to his very best friend and extreme admirer who has continued to promise to execute on Phase 1 of that perfectly marvelous and magnificent Trade seal, the quality and scope of which has never been seen in the history of the world, that the BS he’s pulling in Hong Kong, withs eyes on Taiwan will not be tolerated. Yeah, right!!!
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s very informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/R0VWMEB_rvU
SECTORS: The news was catch-up yesterday and a solid follow-thru today. I find it increasingly difficult to separate the market from the economy, and that has been to my detriment. The two trades we have on right now should, by all rights work out in our favor. I started the position small and I averaged down in both today. The XRT trade in particular seems to me to have the best potential, although there are some earnings this week, AND I HATE TO PLAY EARNINGS, we are so overbought and extended that I set aside that particular worry. We also took some profits in NEM, and re-entered today about $6 lower.
FOOD SUPPLY: was HIGHER with TSN ++1.10, BGS +1.15, FLO +.09, CAG +.77, MDLZ +.71, KNC +.91, CALM +.73, JJSF +8.45, SAFM +1.56, LANC +7.59, GO -.13, HRL +1.19, and PBJ $31.62 +.87 (2.83%).
BIOPHARMA was MIXED with BIIB +5.59, ABBV-.71, REGN -2.21, ISRG +3.64, GILD +1.42, MYL +.86, TEVA +.57, VRTZ +12.01, BHC +.40, INCY -.46, ICPT -.97, LABU -.10, and IBB $131.80 +.99 (.76%).
CANNABIS: This group was LOWER with TLRY -.26, CGC -.13, CRON +.06, GWPH -5.15, ACB -.31, PYX +.39, NBEV -.06, CURLF -.08, KERN +.27, and MJ $14.25 -.03 (.21%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +=25.98, GD +6.73, TXT +1.43, NOC +16.81, BWXT +2.99, TDY +9.71, RTX +3.13, and ITA $167.19 +7.94 (4.99%).
RETAIL was HIGHER with M +1.73, JWN +3.11, KSS +3.28, DDS +3.05, WMT -1.27, TGT +1.98, TJX +.20, RL -1.16, UAA +.83, LULU +.09, TPR +.65, CPRI +1.60, and XRT $41.64 +1.38 (3.43%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER after being higher earlier with GOOGL -1.09, AMZN -18.36, AAPL +1.07, FB -5.05, NFLX+5.23, NVDA -8.51, TSLA -4.47, BABA -.72, BIDU -.14, CMG -24.00, CAT +5.54, BA +12.01, DIS +1.47, and XLK $96.94 +.55 (.57%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +14.44, JPM +6.32, BAC +1.72, MS +3.39, C +4.53, PNC +7.63, AIG +.52, TRV +3.97, V +.28, and XLF $24.06 +1.00 (4.34%).
OIL, $32.81 -1.54. Oil was unable to make a new high today and after that failure it fell all the way back 31.75 before closing 2/3s down on the range. If we break 30.72 on a closing basis, I think we can work lower. The stocks generally lower and XLE was $40.06 +.51 (1.29%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,710.70 +5.10. After trying to break to new highs Gold failed to follow-thru and opened slightly lower and fell all the way back to trade $1,700 yesterday, and this morning got only worse hitting $1,684 before turning back up and closing up on the day. We bought back 2 lots of NEM roughly $6.00 lower that our sale yesterday.
BITCOIN: closed $9,170 +385. After breaking down from just over 10,000 and trading 8,220 we started back up and traded all the way back, it failed to make a new recovery high. We broke all the way back to trade 8815 today but managed a move to close just over $9000. We added 350 shares of GBTC last Wednesday @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $10.50 +.32 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to options [link] [comments]

FAANG Slips Again

For Trading MAY 28TH
FAANG Slips Again, Russell Surges ALL 11 S&P Sectors Higher
Today’s market was up after continued strength in the futures and markets around the world and although the DJIA ran well ahead for the first half of the day but by the close the only laggard was the NASDAQ. The DJIA finished +553.16 (2.21%), NASDA +72.14 (.77%), S&P 500 +43.36 (1.48%), the Russell +43.28 (3.11%) and the DJ Transports were +255 (2.86%). The DJIA was 25 up and only 5 down with the biggest winners being GS +92, UNH +60, AXP +48, MMM +41, JPM +38, CAT, BA, and HD all +43 DP’s. Market internals were a bit soft with volume roughly 30% lower than normal and A/D 3:1 on NYSE and NASDAQ >2:1 gainers. The strong sectors were financial, industrials and home builders while the weaker were Information tech (FAANG), communication services, consumer discretionary, and energy. On the news front we had those two do-nothing groups of legislators actually BOTH pass a bill for sanctions against China for violations of human rights. Unfortunately, that leaves the Orange Emperor still in charge of getting the message across to his very best friend and extreme admirer who has continued to promise to execute on Phase 1 of that perfectly marvelous and magnificent Trade seal, the quality and scope of which has never been seen in the history of the world, that the BS he’s pulling in Hong Kong, withs eyes on Taiwan will not be tolerated. Yeah, right!!!
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s very informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!!
Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/R0VWMEB_rvU
SECTORS: The news was catch-up yesterday and a solid follow-thru today. I find it increasingly difficult to separate the market from the economy, and that has been to my detriment. The two trades we have on right now should, by all rights work out in our favor. I started the position small and I averaged down in both today. The XRT trade in particular seems to me to have the best potential, although there are some earnings this week, AND I HATE TO PLAY EARNINGS, we are so overbought and extended that I set aside that particular worry. We also took some profits in NEM, and re-entered today about $6 lower.
FOOD SUPPLY: was HIGHER with TSN ++1.10, BGS +1.15, FLO +.09, CAG +.77, MDLZ +.71, KNC +.91, CALM +.73, JJSF +8.45, SAFM +1.56, LANC +7.59, GO -.13, HRL +1.19, and PBJ $31.62 +.87 (2.83%).
BIOPHARMA was MIXED with BIIB +5.59, ABBV-.71, REGN -2.21, ISRG +3.64, GILD +1.42, MYL +.86, TEVA +.57, VRTZ +12.01, BHC +.40, INCY -.46, ICPT -.97, LABU -.10, and IBB $131.80 +.99 (.76%).
CANNABIS: This group was LOWER with TLRY -.26, CGC -.13, CRON +.06, GWPH -5.15, ACB -.31, PYX +.39, NBEV -.06, CURLF -.08, KERN +.27, and MJ $14.25 -.03 (.21%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +=25.98, GD +6.73, TXT +1.43, NOC +16.81, BWXT +2.99, TDY +9.71, RTX +3.13, and ITA $167.19 +7.94 (4.99%).
RETAIL was HIGHER with M +1.73, JWN +3.11, KSS +3.28, DDS +3.05, WMT -1.27, TGT +1.98, TJX +.20, RL -1.16, UAA +.83, LULU +.09, TPR +.65, CPRI +1.60, and XRT $41.64 +1.38 (3.43%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER after being higher earlier with GOOGL -1.09, AMZN -18.36, AAPL +1.07, FB -5.05, NFLX+5.23, NVDA -8.51, TSLA -4.47, BABA -.72, BIDU -.14, CMG -24.00, CAT +5.54, BA +12.01, DIS +1.47, and XLK $96.94 +.55 (.57%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +14.44, JPM +6.32, BAC +1.72, MS +3.39, C +4.53, PNC +7.63, AIG +.52, TRV +3.97, V +.28, and XLF $24.06 +1.00 (4.34%).
OIL, $32.81 -1.54. Oil was unable to make a new high today and after that failure it fell all the way back 31.75 before closing 2/3s down on the range. If we break 30.72 on a closing basis, I think we can work lower. The stocks generally lower and XLE was $40.06 +.51 (1.29%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,710.70 +5.10. After trying to break to new highs Gold failed to follow-thru and opened slightly lower and fell all the way back to trade $1,700 yesterday, and this morning got only worse hitting $1,684 before turning back up and closing up on the day. We bought back 2 lots of NEM roughly $6.00 lower that our sale yesterday.
BITCOIN: closed $9,170 +385. After breaking down from just over 10,000 and trading 8,220 we started back up and traded all the way back, it failed to make a new recovery high. We broke all the way back to trade 8815 today but managed a move to close just over $9000. We added 350 shares of GBTC last Wednesday @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97. GBTC closed $10.50 +.32 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

The halvening and the Stock to Flow Model is not a hype cycle but fundamental. EXPLAINED

There is a difference between hype and fundamentals. Wall st bonus or Chinese New Year or new partnership is a hype cycle.
Buy the rumour sell the news is a hype cycle.
The halvening is a fundamental event. Bitcoin is fundamentally undervalued compared to its market cap right now. Intrinsic value is greater than market cap. Intrinsic value is 8.5k right now. The price of Bitcoin on the spot exchanges always reverts back to the intrinsic value over time. The stock to Flow model is cointegrated which means that if you plot the error between Bitcoins traded price and the model predicted price it forms a bell curve around the intrinsic value. This bell curves proves the legitimacy of the model If the model was wrong the plot wouldn't result in a bell curve. It would have chaotic spurious data.
A lot of people think stock to Flow model is just good because it looks accurate on the chart. But truth is it mathematically checks out
Here is how you can work it out yourself:
1/ First, you need to choose a program like Microsoft excel.
2/ Then, you want to load a dataset of the price history of BTC. So in one column you'll have the day and in the other column you'll have the price.
3/ You'll want this data to go back as far as possible to have as much data as possible. So thats 10 years of daily data. Would give you 3650 rows.
4/ Then, on the next column you need to put the predicted price of bitcoin according to S2F.
5/ Then, in the next column you want to subtract the previous column from the one before it. This new column will be your error data set. Which tells you each day how overshot or undershot the predicted price was.
6/ For the S2F flow to be cointegrated, the error dataset should form a bell curve (it should be "normally distributed") To calculate whether the error data set is normally distributed you need to use a normality test. There are several in data analysis. A popular one is the Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test.
7/ After you conduct this test it will tell you how closely the error set matches a bell curve. The more it matches a bell curve the better the prediction model is.
Bitcoins Stock to Flow model: https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/stock-to-flow-model/
Hodlers play a huge role in the stock to flow.
submitted by Robby16 to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

BITCOIN ON THE ONE WEEK CHART!! WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF?? Live Bitcoin Chart Liquidation Watch: August 7 2020 - YouTube Bitcoin Halving 2020: History & Price Prediction (A Simple ... STOCK MARKET IS NOT BULLISH. URGENT BITCOIN CHART ANALYSIS History of Bitcoin (BTC) - YouTube

Bitcoin Price (BTC). Price chart, trade volume, market cap, and more. Discover new cryptocurrencies to add to your portfolio. Bitcoin history. Bitcoin is the first example of decentralized digital money established in 2008 by a person or a group of people under the pseudonym of Satoshi Nakamoto. This account of bitcoin history resumes the first ten-years (2008 - 2019) of the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin price since 2009 to 2019. Bitcoin price charts. Bitcoin Price Charts and History. Check Bitcoin's Current Price, Market Cap, Available Supply, and Total Supply. View Bitcoin's Current Ranking Among Other Cryptocurrencies. View Percentage Change From 1 Hour, 24 Hours, to 7 Days for Bitcoin. View Bitcoin's Price Chart and Historical Data From 7 Days, 1 Month, 3 Months, 6 Months, 1 Year, or All ... Interactive Chart for Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD), analyze all the data with a huge range of indicators. 2015 Bitcoin chart by Tyler Durden of Zero Hedge. A current positive influencer of Bitcoin price, or at least perception, is the ">Argentinian situation. Argentina’s newly-elected President, Mauricio Macri, has pledged to end capital controls.

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BITCOIN ON THE ONE WEEK CHART!! WILL HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF??

Bitcoin Live Btc Price Chart Liquidation Watch Bull vs Bear Pump or Dump Bitcoin Currency Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency. It is a decentralized digital curr... STOCK MARKET IS NOT BULLISH. URGENT BITCOIN CHART ANALYSIS ... Bitcoin + Alts Price Chart & Analysis (March 28th, ... History Help About; Press ... 🔴 Bitcoin and Stocks LIVE : STOCK MARKET CRASH BLACK MONDAY 🔴 Ep. 900 Crypto Technical Analysis Mitch Ray 791 watching Live now Bitcoin Isn't Stopping At $100k With Global QE - Dan Held Of ... Bitcoin (BTC), Gold, Oil, Stocks. Cryptocurrency and Stock Market Technical Analysis and News. #bitcoin #stocks #trading Send a Tip to the Streamer (NOTE: MAKE SURE TO ENTER YOUR USERNAME or you ... This is a simple explanation of the bitcoin halving event that will happen in May of 2020. ♦ Receive $10 of FREE BITCOIN when you use this link to sign up fo...

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