Bitcoin Price (Official) - Live Bitcoin Price Charts & No Ads
Bitcoin Price (Official) - Live Bitcoin Price Charts & No Ads
Bitcoin History – Price since 2009 to 2019, BTC Charts ...
If you put $1,000 in bitcoin in 2013, here’s how much you ...
Bitcoin Price in 2013 Finance Reference
Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD) Stock Historical Prices & Data ...
Why Bitcoin Has a Volatile Value?
Price fluctuations in the bitcoin spot rate on cryptocurrency exchanges are driven by many factors. Volatility is measured in traditional markets by the Volatility Index, also known as the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). More recently, a volatility index for bitcoin has also become available. Known as the Bitcoin Volatility Index, it aims to track the volatility of the world's leading digital currency by market cap over various periods of time. Bitcoin's value has been historically quite volatile. In a three-month span from October of 2017 to January of 2018, for instance, the volatility of the price of bitcoin reached to nearly 8%. This is more than twice the volatility of bitcoin in the 30-day period ending January 15, 2020. But why is bitcoin so volatile? Here are just a few of the many factors behind bitcoin's volatility.
Bad News Hurts Adoption Rate
News events that scare bitcoin users include geopolitical events and statements by governments that bitcoin is likely to be regulated. Bitcoin's early adopters included several bad actors, producing headline news stories that produced fear in investors. Headline-making bitcoin news over the decade or so of the cryptocurrency's existence includes the bankruptcy of Mt. Gox in early 2014 and, more recently, that of the South Korean exchange Yapian Youbit. Other news stories which shocked investors include the high-profile use of bitcoin in drug transactions via Silk Road that ended with the FBI shutdown of the marketplace in October 2013. All these incidents and the public panic that ensued drove the value of bitcoins versus fiat currencies down rapidly. However, bitcoin-friendly investors viewed those events as evidence that the market was maturing, driving the value of bitcoins versus the dollar markedly back up in the short period immediately following the news events.
Bitcoin's Perceived Value Sways
One reason why bitcoin may fluctuate against fiat currencies is the perceived store of value versus the fiat currency. Bitcoin has properties that make it similar to gold. It is governed by a design decision by the developers of the core technology to limit its production to a fixed quantity of 21 million BTC. Since that differs markedly from fiat currency, which is dynamically managed by governments who want to maintain low inflation, high employment, and satisfactory growth through investment in capital resources, as economies built with fiat currencies show signs of strength or weakness, investors may allocate more or less of their assets into bitcoin.
Uncertainty of Future Bitcoin's Value
Bitcoin volatility is also driven in large part by varying perceptions of the intrinsic value of the cryptocurrency as a store of value and method of value transfer. A store of value is the function by which an asset can be useful in the future with some predictability. A store of value can be saved and exchanged for some good or service in the future. A method of value transfer is any object or concept used to transmit property in the form of assets from one party to another. Bitcoin’s volatility at the present makes it a somewhat unclear store of value, but it promises nearly frictionless value transfer. As a result, we see that bitcoin's value can swing based on news events much as we observe with fiat currencies.
Large Currency Holder Risks
Bitcoin volatility is also to an extent driven by holders of large proportions of the total outstanding float of the currency. For bitcoin investors with current holdings above around $10M, it is not clear how they would liquidate a position that large into a fiat position without severely moving the market. Indeed, it may not be clear how they would liquidate a position of that size in a short period of time at all, as most cryptocurrency exchanges impose 24-hour withdrawal limits far below that threshold. Bitcoin has not reached the mass market adoption rates that would be necessary to provide option value to large holders of the currency.
Security Breaches Cause Volatility
Bitcoin can also become volatile when the bitcoin community exposes security vulnerabilities in an effort to produce massive open source responses in the form of security fixes. This approach to security is paradoxically one that produces great outcomes, with many valuable open source software initiatives to its credit, including Linux. Bitcoin developers must reveal security concerns to the public in order to produce robust solutions. It was a hack that drove the Yapian Youbit to bankruptcy, while many other cryptocurrencies have also made headlines for being hacked or having stashes of cryptocurrencies stolen. As an early example, in April 2014, the OpenSSL vulnerabilities attacked by the Heartbleed bug and reported by Google security's, Neel Mehta, drove Bitcoin prices down by 10% in a month. Bitcoin and open source software development are built upon the same fundamental premise that a copy of the source code is available to users to examine. This concept makes it the responsibility of the community to voice concerns about the software design, just as it is the responsibility of the community to come to consensus about modifications to that underlying source code as well. Because of the open conversation and debate regarding the Bitcoin network, security breaches tend to be highly publicized.
High-Profile Losses Raise Fear
It is worth noting that the aforementioned thefts and the ensuing news about the losses had a double effect on volatility. They reduced the overall float of bitcoin, producing a potential lift on the value of the remaining bitcoin due to increased scarcity. However, overriding this lift was the negative effect of the news cycle that followed. Notably, other bitcoin gateways looked to the massive failure at Mt. Gox as a positive for the long term prospects of bitcoin, further complicating the already complex story behind the currency’s volatility. As early adopting firms were eliminated from the market due to poor management and dysfunctional processes, later entrants learn from their errors and build stronger processes into their own operations, strengthening the infrastructure of the cryptocurrency overall.
High-Inflation Nations and Bitcoins
Bitcoin’s use case as a currency for developing countries that are currently experiencing high inflation is valuable when considering the volatility of bitcoin in these economies versus the volatility of bitcoin in USD. Bitcoin is much more volatile versus USD than the high-inflation Argentine peso versus the USD. That being said, the near frictionless transfer of bitcoins across borders makes it a potentially highly attractive borrowing instrument for Argentineans, as the high inflation rate for peso-denominated loans potentially justifies taking on some intermediate currency volatility risk in a bitcoin-denominated loan funded outside Argentina. Similarly, funders outside Argentina can earn a higher return under this scheme than they can by using other debt instruments, denominated in their home currency, potentially offsetting some of the risks of exposure to the high inflation Argentine market.
Tax Treatment Lifts Volatility
According to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), bitcoin is actually considered an asset for tax purposes. This has had a mixed impact on bitcoin's volatility. On the upside, any statement recognizing the currency has a positive effect on the market valuation of the currency. Conversely, the decision by the IRS to call it property had at least two negative effects. The first was the added complexity for users who want to use it as a form of payment. Under the new tax law, users would have to record the market value of the currency at the time of every transaction, no matter how small. This need for record keeping can understandably slow adoption as it seems to be too much trouble for what it is worth for many users. Secondly, the decision to call the currency a form of property for tax purposes may be a signal to some market participants that the IRS is preparing to enforce stronger regulations later. Very strong regulation of the currency could cause the adoption rate of the currency to slow to the point where it is not able to achieve the mass adoption that is critical for its overall utility in society. Recent moves by the IRS are not clear as to their signaling motives and therefore have mixed signals to the market for bitcoin.
TRUE historical data on yearly lows (correcting repetitive historical false information spread on reddit and twitter)
Recently, wrong historical data on the alleged Bitcoin yearly lows could be repetitively read in ill-researched or "blindly copy-pasted" posts and tweets, e.g. falsely claiming a yearly low for 2013 of $65, where $13 is the correct value (wrong by a factor of 5)! Here is the correct data: TRUE yearly lows (first historically recorded trade occurred at MtGox exchange on 17th July 2010; bitstamp exchange started operation on 13 Sep 2011*): *not included: Bitcoin prices of around $0.003 on Bitcoin USD markets recorded since 25th April 2010, consistent with famous two Bitcoin pizzas from 22nd May 2010 worth $30 for 10,000 BTC. Yearly absolute lows (just omitting obvious implausible data flaws) - not recommended because short outliers of very low trade volumes can bias the view of the real market situation:
2010: $0.03211 (MtGox, 30th August)
2011: $0.289 (MtGox, 2nd January)
2011: $2.22 (bitstamp, 20th & 21st October)
2012: $3.80 (bitstamp, 27th January)
2013: $12.77 (bitstamp, 1st January)
2014: $275.00 (bitstamp, 5th October)
2015: $152.40 (bitstamp, 14th January)
2016: $352.00 (bitstamp, 16th January)
2017: $751.34 (bitstamp, 12th January)
2018: $3122.28 (bitstamp, 15th December)
2019: $3322.19 (bitstamp, 29th January)
2020: <= $6853.53 (bitstamp, 3rd January)
Yearly lows of daily weighted averages - more useful because short outliers with very low volumes are not biasing the statistics:
Ummm, remember those "Expert" Bitcoin Price Predictions for 2019 ..... ohhhhh dear .....
Lots of cryptocurrency "experts" put whatever "reputation" and "credibility" they had on the line with Bitcoin predictions in 2019, and and came up wayyyyyy short. Eggs on Face ... by the cartoon. Any credibility thay had, completely destroyed, exposing them for the coin schills that they truly are. Luckily for these lying, delusional morons, Butters has a very short selective memory, and he will still believe everything they say again and again in the future, no matter how wrong or corrupt they are. Without further ado, I give you the "Expert" Bitcoin Price Predictions for 2019:
Question: Why isn't anyone holding the above "experts" accountable for their bogus, bullshit predictions ??? In addition, we have some gems from various Redditors, and here are some of the stand-outs:
Bitcoin 11 Years - Achievements, Lies, and Bullshit Claims So Far - Tooootally NOT a SCAM !!!!
That's right folks, it's that time again for the annual review of how Bitcoin is going: all of those claims, predictions, promises .... how many have turned out to be true, and how many are completely bogus ??? Please post / link this on Bitcoin (I am banned there for speaking the truth, so I cannot do it) ... because it'a way past time those poor clueless mushrooms were exposed to the truth. Anyway, without further ado, I give you the Bitcoin's Achievements, Lies, and Bullshit Claims So Far ... . Bitcoin Achievements so far:
It has spawned a cesspool of scams (2000+ shit coin scams, plus 100's of other scams, frauds, cons).
Many 1,000's of hacks, thefts, losses.
Illegal Use Cases: illegal drugs, illegal weapons, tax fraud, money laundering, sex trafficking, child pornography, hit men / murder-for-hire, ransomware, blackmail, extortion, and various other kinds of fraud and illicit activity.
Legal Use Cases: Steam Games, Reddit, Expedia, Stripe, Starbucks, 1000's of merchants, cryptocurrency conferences, Ummm ????? The few merchants who "accept Bitcoin" immediately convert it into FIAT after the sale, or require you to sell your coins to BitPay or Coinbase for real money, and will then take that money. Some of the few who actually accept bitcoin haven't seen a customer who needed to pay with bitcoin for the last six months, and their cashiers no longer know how to handle that.
Contributing significantly to Global Warming.
Wastes vasts amounts of electricity on useless, do nothing work.
Exponentially raises electricity prices when big miners move into regions where electricity was cheap.
It’s the first "currency" that is not self-sustainable. It operates at a net loss, and requires continuous outside capital to replace the capital removed by miners to pay their costs. It’s literally a "black hole currency."
It created a new way for people living too far from Vegas to gamble all their life savings away.
Spawned "blockchain technology", a powerful technique that lets incompetent programmers who know almost nothing about databases, finance, programming, or blockchain scam millions out of gullible VC investors, banks, and governments.
Increased China's foreign trade balance by a couple billion dollars per year.
Helped the FBI and other law enforcement agents easily track down hundreds of drug traffickers and drug users.
Wasted thousands if not millions of man-hours of government employees and legislators, in mostly fruitless attempts to understand, legitimize, and regulate the "phenomenon", and to investigate and prosecute its scams.
Rekindled the hopes of anarcho-capitalists and libertarians for a global economic collapse, that would finally bring forth their Mad Max "utopia".
Added another character to Unicode (no, no, not the "poo" 💩 character ... that was my first guess as well 🤣)
Provides an easy way for malware and ransomware criminals to ply their trade and extort hospitals, schools, local councils, businesses, utilities, as well as the general population.
~~Bitcoin is "striking fear into the hearts of bankers, precisely because Bitcoin eliminates the need for banks. ~~, Mark Yusko, billionaire investor and Founder of Morgan Creek Capital, https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/
"A bitcoin miner in every device and in every hand."
"All the indicators are pointing to a huge year and bigger than anything we have seen before."
"Bitcoin is communism and democracy working hand in hand."
"Bitcoin is freedom, and we will soon be free."
"Bitcoin isn't calculated risk, you're right. It's downright and painfully obvious that it will consume global finance."
"Bitcoin most disruptive technology of last 500 years"
"Bitcoin: So easy, your grandma can use it!"
"Creating a 4th Branch of Government - Bitcoin"
"Future generations will cry laughing reading all the negativity and insanity vomited by these permabears."
"Future us will thank us."
"Give Bitcoin two years"
"HODLING is more like being a dutiful guardian of the most powerful economic force this planet has ever seen and getting to have a say about how that force is unleashed."
"Cut out the middleman"
"full control of your own assets"
"reduction in wealth gap"
"cannot print money out of thin air"
"Why that matters? Because blockchain not only cheaper for them, it'll be cheaper for you and everyone as well."
"If you are in this to get rich in Fiat then no. But if you are in this to protect your wealth once the current monetary system collapse then you are protected and you'll be the new rich."
"Theres the 1% and then theres the 99%. You want to be with the rest thats fine. Being different and brave is far more rewarding. No matter your background or education."
"NO COINERS will believe anything they are fed by fake news and paid media."
"I know that feeling (like people looking at you as in seeing a celebrity and then asking things they don't believe until their impressed)."
"I literally walk round everyday looking at other people wondering why they even bother to live if they don't have Bitcoin in their lives."
"I think bitcoin may very well be the best form of money we’ve ever seen in the history of civilization."
"I think Bitcoin will do for mankind what the sun did for life on earth."
"I think the constant scams and illegal activities only show the viability of bitcoin."
"I think we're sitting on the verge of exponential interest in the currency."
"I'm not using hyperbole when I say Satoshi found the elusive key to World Peace."
"If Jesus ever comes back you know he's gonna be using Bitcoin"
"If this idea was implemented with The Blockchain™, it would be completely flawless! Flawless I tell you!"
"If you're the minimum wage guy type, now is a great time to skip food and go full ramadan in order to buy bitcoin instead."
"In a world slipping more and more into chaos and uncertainty, Bitcoin seems to me like the last solid rock defeating all the attacks."
"In this moment, I am euphoric. Not because of any filthy statist's blessing, but because I am enlightened by own intelligence."
"Is Bitcoin at this point, with all the potential that opens up, the most undervalued asset ever?"
"It won't be long until bitcoin is an everyday household term."
"It's the USD that is volatile. Bitcoin is the real neutral currency."
"Just like the early Internet!"
"Just like the Trojan Horse of old, Bitcoin will reveal its full power and nature"
"Ladies if your man doesnt have some bitcoin then he cant handle anything and has no danger sex appeal. He isnt edgy"
"let me be the first to say if you dont have bitcoin you are a pussy and cant really purchase anything worldwide. You have no global reach"
"My conclusion is that I see this a a very good thing for bitcoin and for users"
"No one would do such a thing; it'd be against their self interests."
"Ooh lala, good job on bashing Bitcoin. How to disrespect a great innovation."
"Realistically I think Bitcoin will replace the dollar in the next 10-15 years."
"Seperation of money and state -> states become obsolete -> world peace."
"Some striking similarities between Bitcoin and God"
"THANK YOU. Better for this child to be strangled in its crib as a true weapon for crypto-anarchists than for it to be wielded by toxic individuals who distort the technology and surrender it to government and corporate powers."
"The Blockchain is more encompassing than the internet and is the next phase in human evolution. To avoid its significance is complete ignorance."
"The bull run should begin any day now."
"The free market doesn't permit fraud and theft."
"The free market will clear away the bad actors."
"The only regulation we need is the blockchain."
"We are not your slaves! We are free bodies who will swallow you and puke you out in disgust. Welcome to liberty land or as that genius called it: Bitcoin."
"We do not need the bankers for Satoshi is our saviour!"
"We have never seen something so perfect"
"We must bring freedom and crypto to the masses, to the common man who does not know how to fight for himself."
"We verified that against the blockchain."
"we will see a Rennaisnce over the next few decades, all thanks to Bitcoin."
"Well, since 2006, there has been a infinite% increase in price, so..."
"What doesn't kill cryptocurrency makes it stronger."
"When Bitcoin awake in normally people (real people) ... you will have this result : No War. No Tax. No QE. No Bank."
"When I see news that the price of bitcoin has tanked (and thus the market, more or less) I actually, for-real, have the gut reaction "oh that’s cool, I’ll be buying cheap this week". I never knew I could be so rational."
"Where is your sense of adventure? Bitcoin is the future. Set aside your fears and leave easier at the doorstep."
"Yes Bitcoin will cause the greatest redistribution of wealth this planet has ever seen. FACT from the future."
"You are the true Bitcoin pioneers and with your help we have imprinted Bitcoin in the Canadian conscience."
"You ever try LSD? Perhaps it would help you break free from the box of state-formed thinking you have limited yourself..."
"Your phone or refrigerator might be on the blockchain one day."
The banks can print money whenever they way, out of thin air, so why can't crypto do the same ???
Central Banks can print money whenever they way, out of thin air, without any consequences or accounting, so why can't crypto do the same ???
It's impossible to hide illegal, unsavory material on the blockchain
It's impossible to hide child pornography on the blockchain
All Bitccoins are the same, 100% identical, one Bitcoin cannot be distinguished from any other Bitcoin.
The price of Bitcoin can only go up because of scarcity / 21 million coin limit. (Bitcoin is open source, anyone can create thir own copy, and there are more than 2,000+ Bitcoin copies / clones out there already).
immune to government regulation
"a world-changing technology"
"a long-term store of value, like gold or silver"
"To Complex to Be Audited."
"Old Auditing rules do not apply to Blockchain."
"Old Auditing rules do not apply to Cryptocurrency."
Bitcoin now at $16,600.00. Those of you in the old school who believe this is a bubble simply have not understood the new mathematics of the Blockchain, or you did not cared enough to try. Bubbles are mathematically impossible in this new paradigm. So are corrections and all else", John McAfee, 7 Dec 2017 @ 5:09 PM,https://mobile.twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/938938539282190337
2013-11-27: ""What is a Citadel?" you might wonder. Well, by the time Bitcoin became worth 1,000 dollar [27-Nov-2013], services began to emerge for the "Bitcoin rich" to protect themselves as well as their wealth. It started with expensive safes, then began to include bodyguards, and today, "earlies" (our term for early adapters), as well as those rich whose wealth survived the "transition" live in isolated gated cities called Citadels, where most work is automated. Most such Citadels are born out of the fortification used to protect places where Bitcoin mining machines are located. The company known as ASICminer to you is known to me as a city where Mr. Friedman rules as a king.", u/Luka_Magnotta, aka time traveler from the future, 31-Aug-2013, https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/1lfobc/i_am_a_timetraveler_from_the_future_here_to_beg/
2018-12: Listen up you giggling cunts... who wants some?...you? you want some?...huh? Do ya? Here's the deal you fuckin Nerds - Butts are gonna be at30 grandor more by next Christmas  - If they aren't I will publicly administer an electronic dick sucking to every shill on this site and disappear forever - Until then, no more bans or shadow bans - Do we have a deal? If Butts are over 50 grand me and Lammy get to be mods. Deal? Your ole pal - "Skully"u/10GDeathBoner, 3-Feb-2018 https://www.reddit.com/Buttcoin/comments/7ut1ut/listen_up_you_giggling_cunts_who_wants_someyou/
2018-12: "Bitcoin could be at$40,000by the end of 2018, it really easily could", Mike Novogratz, a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. partner, ex-hedge fund manager of the Fortress Investment Group and a longstanding advocate of cryptocurrency, 21-Sep-2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lC1anDg2KU
2018-12: Bitcoin will end 2018 at the price point of$50,000, Ran Neuner, host of CNBC’s show Cryptotrader and the 28th most influential Blockchain insider according to Richtopia,https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/
The Dow fell 256.50, or 0.98%, to 25,864.78 , the Nasdaq lost 162.98, or 1.87%, to 8,575.62 , and the S&P 500 declined 51.57, or 1.71%, to 2,972.37.
The stock market ended a volatile week on a lower note with the S&P 500 (-1.7%) settling just above its low from Monday. The benchmark index gained 0.6% for the week while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.0%) outperformed, gaining 1.8% since last Friday. In the U.S., nonfarm payrolls surged 273,000 in February and the unemployment rate fell back to 3.5%, which matches a five-decade low. Average hourly earnings grew 3.0% year-over-year. While a very strong report, it appears to be discounted because of the coronavirus, though it provides evidence that the U.S. economy was on solid footing before it hit. The trade deficit narrowed 6.7% to $45.3B in January as exports dipped 0.4% to $208.6B and imports dropped 1.6% to $253.9B. Wholesale inventories fell 0.4% in January, but sales jumped 1.6%. In energy news, Reuters reported that OPEC's plans for prolonged oil cuts have been derailed as Russia refused to support the move contending it is too early to predict the effect of coronavirus on global energy demand. WTI crude for April delivery fell $4.62, or 10.1%, to end at $41.28 a barrel following the news of the OPEC blow-up. Also, Baker Hughes reported that the U.S. rig count is up 3 rigs from last week to 793. The final session of the week was marred by a continued deterioration of sentiment due to the ongoing spread of the coronavirus while the pressure on growth expectations intensified. Treasuries essentially never stopped after Thursday's cash close, continuing their forceful charge in the overnight futures market. Treasuries did pull back from their highs in midday trade, but the long bond rallied to a fresh record high in the afternoon while the 10-yr note stopped a bit short of its best level of the day. The 10-yr yield fell 22 basis points to 0.71%, representing a 42-basis point drop for the week. Expectations for another sharp rate cut remain in place with the fed funds futures market pointing to a 56.0% implied likelihood of a 75-basis point rate cut at or before the conclusion of the FOMC meeting on March 18. The S&P 500 staged a 70-point rally during the final hour of trade, which led to a significant improvement in final sector standings, though all eleven sectors finished in the red. Four groups surrendered 2.0% or more. Energy (-5.6%) and financials (-3.3%) were particularly weak throughout the day due to their exposure to growth and concerns about issuers of high-yield debt in the energy sector. Bank stocks suffered from the drop in Treasury yields while energy companies struggled as oil fell $4.57, or 10.0%, to $41.32/bbl. The energy component ended the day at its lowest level since mid-2016 after OPEC+ could not agree to a sharp production cut despite yesterday's reports to the contrary. Russia's Energy Minister, Alexander Novak, said that OPEC+ countries are free to pump at will starting from April 1. Shares of JPM were sharply lower amid the pullback in the market, though the bank's declines may also be made worse by news that CEO Jamie Dimon experienced an acute aortic dissection and underwent successful emergency heart surgery to repair the health issue. Co-Presidents and Chief Operating Officers Daniel Pinto and Gordon Smith will lead the company as Dimon recovers, the bank confirmed. Shares of AAPL were lower after a fourth supplier cut guidance amid the ongoing coronavirus outbreak. ON cut its first quarter revenue outlook this morning, becoming the fourth Apple supplier to cut guidance this week after QRVO, SWKS and MCHP did so as well. In company-specific news, COST reported better than expected Q2 results, but the stock still finished lower. AMD fared better than the broader market after reaffirming its guidance for FY20. The chipmaker did caution that Q1 results are likely to be on the low end of its guidance. Among the noteworthy gainers were MRNA and OPK, which have each recently reported on efforts linked to combating the coronavirus. Airline stocks like ALK +4.0%, JBLU +0.1%), UAL, +1.0%, and DAL, +2.0% recorded gains on Friday after recovering from fresh multi-year lows. Alaska Air did warn that its guidance for FY20 should no longer be relied upon due to coronavirus-related uncertainty. Among the notable losers was AOBC, which fell 30% after the gunmaker reported fiscal Q3 results below consensus and guidance. SBUX shares slid 1% after the company provided an update on the impact related to COVID-19 in China. Stifel analyst Chris O'Cull said the earnings impact to Starbucks' fiscal Q2 is likely larger than he projected, be he also pointed out that Starbucks noted there has been no perceptible impact from COVID-19 on the U.S. business. Shares of cruise operators started the day in positive territory but retreated as the day went on. NCLH, -5.2% was the weakest performer of the bunch, stopping just above its record low (24.16) that was notched when the company went public in early 2013. European stocks also fell sharply Friday as the coronavirus outbreak continues to impact businesses worldwide.
The U.S. Dollar Index dropped 0.9% to 95.98 and was down 2.2% for the week as rate-cut expectations boiled over. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 100% probability of another 50 basis points cut at the March 17-18 FOMC meeting and a 63% probability of a 75 basis points cut.
EUUSD: +0.7% to 1.1317
GBP/USD: +0.3% to 1.2993
USD/CNH: -0.2% to 6.9260
USD/JPY: -0.9% to 106.90
U.S. Treasuries had another huge day as the stock market racked up another day of huge losses amid ongoing concerns about the spread of the coronavirus and budding credit worries. The 10-yr yield, which settled Thursday at 0.93%, went as low as 0.66% in today's curve-flattening trade before losing some steam.
2-yr: -9 bps to 0.49% (-39 bps for the week)
3-yr: -11 bps to 0.51% (-38 bps for the week)
5-yr: -11 bps to 0.56% (-36 bps for the week)
10-yr: -22 bps to 0.71% (-43 bps for the week)
30-yr: -35 bps to 1.22% (-45 bps for the week)
Oil prices plunged more than 8% to multi-year lows on Friday as OPEC’s allies rejected additional production cuts that the organization proposed Thursday. The meeting between OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, concluded with no deal on additional production cuts.
WTI crude: -8.2% to $42.15/bbl
Gold: +0.3% to $1673.50/ozt
Copper: -0.6% to $2.56/lb
Lean Hogs +0.84
Live Cattle -2.67
As global equity markets continue to get pummeled, bitcoin’s return to the $9,000 level may have been driven by some of the same forces causing a rally in bonds – a desire for respite from a coronavirus-plagued markets.
Bitcoin: $9,112.70.19 (24hr: -0.09%)
Ethereum: $240.04 (24hr: +3.72%)
Ripple: $0.24 (24hr: 1.03%)
Bonds, Virus and Valuation
The move in Treasuries has been precipitated by flight-safety flows that have been fueled by economic growth concerns stemming from the spread of the coronavirus. It has also been stoked by momentum, interest rate differentials, and policy stimulus expectations, the latter of which have also been nothing short of stunning. The CME FedWatch Tool is showing a 100% probability of another 50 basis points cut at the March 17-18 FOMC meeting and a 64% probability of a 75 basis points cut. Those expectations capture the view that the coronavirus isn't "just another flu." It might have similar characteristics, but when was the last time entire cities were quarantined, professional sporting events were canceled, travel restrictions were imposed, orchestrated efforts to force employees to work from home, states of emergency were declared, U.S. schools were closed, and the Federal Reserve ushered in an emergency 50 basis points rate cut because of the flu? Coronavirus is quite different from the flu because the reaction to it has been universally different -- and that reaction is what gets lost in the debate as to whether the coronavirus is "just another flu." Rightly or wrongly, the coronavirus is creating an economic disruption in a manner no normal flu has in our modern age and that is the important distinction for the capital markets and policymakers. It's another reason why the strong employment report for February has been glossed over for the most part by the market. At any other time, the Treasury market would be selling off on today's report, and, arguably, the futures market would be moving sharply higher -- but this isn't any other time. The key takeaway from the report isn't what was in the report, it was the lackluster response to it, which is a function of expecting employment reports in coming months not to look as good because of the coronavirus impact. The market multiple has contracted to 16.7x, which is now in-line with the five-year average -- only it isn't because earnings estimates are going to fall further.
The Occult, Numerology & A Lot Pointing at an Event on August 10/11th
Take some of this with a grain of salt. But, as you know through my Shemitah analysis and digging into the occult signs, symbols, dates and numerology used by many of the satanic cabal that currently rule over this Earth that I do pay attention to these things. I also have one particular TDV subscriber in the Czech Republic who parses through a lot of this data for me… and what we have been uncovering about some sort of event on August 10th/11th is at least worth mentioning here. If something of interest does happen on this date then at least I can say I tried to tell you. And, if nothing happens, much of this information is interesting nonetheless. TISHA B’AV Tisha B’Av, the 9th day of the month of Av, which is the 11th month in the Jewish calendar (in Europe they would write this date as 9.11., this year 2019 in Gregorian calendar TISHA B´AV falls to August 10-11), is the saddest day in the Jewish calendar, on which the orthodox jews fast, deprive themselves and pray. It is the culmination of the Three Weeks (of mourning), a period of time during which we mark the destruction of the two Holy Temples in Jerusalem, the Solomon’s temple by the Neo-Babylian empire in 587 BC and Herod's temple by the Roman empire in 70 AD. It is crucial to note that this world is run by secret societies and at the very hard core of the secret societies is the Kabbalah. Kabbalah is the ancient jewish mysticism. It is a method of encoding information through a system of mathematics and numbers. It is some of the most ancient knowledge that man has ever possessed and has been kept secret and given only to those who proved themselves worthy through the process of initiation. Nobody today really knows where it comes from, it was here a long time before the jews came along, the jews just took it and preserved it. It truly is the hardcore of the secret knowledge, the metaphysics, the science that not even 0.1% of the today´s world population know anything about, Shortly to the symbol 911 and what it means in Kabbalah; Tisha B'Av is actually the Ninth of AV, the 9th day of the 11th month in the jewish calendar. In Kabbalah number 10 is the symbol of God's perfection and superiority. The satanists (what the people at the highest ranks of the secret societies like freemasons are) are literally very afraid of God, so they do everything to escape God’s supervision over their deeds , try to hide from Him and that is why they have this symbol 9 11 as the most satanic one, since they believe this symbol kind of “jumps over” or “skips” God, since God’s symbol of perfection and superiority in Kabbalah is the number 10. They jump over the number 10 or try to skip it, that is why 9 11… the Tisha B´Av holiday of the jewish calendar falls into the second half of July or first half of August in the Gregorian calendar. Some of the events that took place on Tisha B´Av in history: ● The First Crusade officially commenced on August 15, 1096 (Av 24, AM 4856), killing 10,000 Jews in its first month and destroying Jewish communities in France and the Rhineland. ● The Jews were expelled from England on July 18, 1290 (Av 9, AM 5050). ● The Jews were expelled from France on July 22, 1306 (Av 10, AM 5066). ● The Jews were expelled from Spain on July 31, 1492 (Av 7, AM 5252). ● Germany entered World War I on August 1–2, 1914 (Av 9–10, AM 5674), which caused massive upheaval in European Jewry and whose aftermath led to the Holocaust. ● On August 2, 1941 (Av 9, AM 5701), SS commander Heinrich Himmler formally received approval from the Nazi Party for "The Final Solution." As a result, the Holocaust began during which almost one third of the world's Jewish population perished. ● On July 23, 1942 (Av 9, AM 5702), began the mass deportation of Jews from the Warsaw Ghetto, en route to Treblinka. ● The AMIA bombing, of the Jewish community center in Buenos Aires, killed 85 and injuring 300 on July 18, 1994 (10 Av, AM 5754). ● The Israeli disengagement from Gaza began in the Gaza Strip, expelling 8000 Jews who lived in Gush Katif; August 15, 2005; 10 Av, 5765. ● Last year 2018 on Tisha B´Av on July 21st, we had a shooting in Chicago. It happened at 10:30am when the arms of the clock point at 11 and 6, the upside down 911. Tisha B´Av this year is the numerical value of the number 58, 11+8+20+19, 58 is very symbolic number for freemasonry and other occult or secret societies. Donald Trump is also connected to this number, we will devote some attention to this number with relation to Donald Trump later below, furthermore the word TRUMP equals 222 in „reverse satanic“ style of gematria. August 10th is the 222nd day of the year. Moreover, some numerologists are saying that the most satanic day in the year from the number point of view is June 6th, like 6/6. For example, last year the merger of the two giants, Monsanto and Bayer , deal for $66 billion USD, was allegedly signed on 6/6/18 (18=6+6+6). Now if you add 66 days to 6/6 (June 6th), you’́ll come to August 11th, TISHA B´AV of 2019. This year we had a ritual on 6/6, with all the world’s (mis)leaders in Normandy, France, the 75th anniversary of the Normandy landing of the allies in 1944. On CNN they put some headlines in quotes, like “NORMANDY ANNIVERSARY” which equals 222 in ALW Kabbalah style of gematria (the beginning of Tisha B´Av this year is in the evening of august 10th, the 222nd day of the year). They also posted, “NORMANDY D-DAY” which equals 118 in both ALW and KFW Kabbalah styles of gematria. Maybe they are pointing to august 11th as much as they can, since 11.8. is the way August 11th is written in Europe. AUGUST 11TH The date 11.8. is also like 11+8 = 19, we are in the year 19, 19 matches CHAOS is gematria, in reverse it is 91, matching PHOENIX. It is also like 11x8=88, which is the symbolic number of Trump, in other words the “super time number.” The number 11 in Kabbalah is representing duality, shattering and the initiation into the mysteries of religion. September 11th was permeated by the number 11 like no other event in known history. 11 is also represented by the twin pillar of Jachin and Boaz, which stood at the entrance of Solomon’s temple. Number 11 and its multiples are the master numbers in numerology, they do not get reduced unlike the other numbers, which can be reduced. The number 8 is the number of time, represented by the hour glass, the infinity symbol and the Ouroboros biting its own tail. Number 8 is also the symbol of the Magician tarot card, the Magician is always depicted with the number 8 above his head and with the hourglass on the table in front of him. 1+1+8+2+0+1+9=22 22 is the “master builder number”, freemasons consider themselves to be THE MASTER BUILDERS. Also, there is 22 books of revelation, this date august 11th seems to be very much entangled with eschatology or the end times. Haarp’s patent day is August 11th 1987. It will be exactly 32 years on august 11th 2019. The 32nd degree is the highest degree of initiation of the Scottish rite of freemasonry, the most used rite among the Jewish freemasons. It has 33 degrees, but the 33rd degree is the so called “honorary degree”, the masons in the 33rd degree are bestowed this kind of degree as a credit for what they have done for freemasonry in their life or even after they die. No higher initiation into any more “sacred knowledge”, the highest degree of initiation is the 32nd degree. The formation of AL-QAEDA was on 11.8.88 (1988). This year on August 11th 2019 it will be exactly 31 years. 31 is the 11th prime number and also 13 in reverse, 13 is the biblical number of rebellion. AL-QAEDA matches 58 in gematria (words matching this number will be named later on) and also 888 in gematria, matching DONALD J TRUMP, EMMANUEL MACRON, JESUS CROSS, DEUTSCHE BANK Also, 11.8, 1919 the new German constitution was adopted, founding the Weimar Republic. This act lead Germany shortly after the first world war and a downwards spiral of hyperinflation, consequently into a nazi overtake, and ultimately into the second world war. DONALD TRUMP With the connection of building the third temple in Jerusalem at this time, the third year of the reign of Donald Trump as the new “King Cyrus” (the third year of the reign of King Cyrus is being described in the bible), and along the fact this year being very, very important for the satanic rulers on its own, this year TISHA B´AV on August 10th-11th 2019 seems to be a quite probable date for some kind of event of 911 importance. The state of Israel just celebrated its 71st anniversary on May 14th this year. 88 days later we´ll come to August 10th, the beginning of TISHA B´AV. 88 is the symbolic number of Trump (the re-incarnated King Cyrus): ● Trump spent 88 million USD of his own money for his campaign ● Trump had 88 offices across the US during his presidential campaign ● Trump had 88 events or campaign stops during his campaign ● Trump had the number 88 on his podium everywhere he spoke during his campaign ● Trump had 88 military advisors, retired admirals and generals who supported him in his campaign ● Trump’s slogan “MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN” equals 808 in numerology. For those who missed Christine Lagarde’s lecture on numerology, zeros are ignored in numerology ● Trump’s slogan “STRONGER TOGETHER” equals 88 in two gematria styles ● Trump’s cousin Thomas P. Trump , due to which Donald Trump was being mocked during his campaign, died exactly 1 year before Trump's inauguration day, 20. January 2016, 88 days before he would be 88. ● The movie Donnie Darko, predicting Trump's victory, where the main character kind of symbolizes Donald Trump, and the movie talks about time travel and the year 1988, is overloaded with the symbology of the number 88 ● The word “Trump” matches 88 in gematria in the „english ordinal“ style, the most basic numerology style, where A = 1 and Z = 26, DONALD J TRUMP equals 888 in english-sumarian style of gematria ● Trump’s mother, Mary Anne MacLeod, died when she was 88 years and 88 days old Donald Trump, in esoteric circles, is always compared to King Cyrus, or Cyrus the Great, the king of Persia, who released the Jews from the 70 years of captivity in Babylon, gave them back the city of Jerusalem and built a wall around it. Netanyhu even compares Trump to Cyrus. When Trump was selected the US president, the state of Israel started minting coins with the king Cyrus and President Trump together on one coin. If we just for a while accept the notion that Trump is the reincarnation of the King Cyrus, (now taking into account the fact they truly look alike…), we should also look at some potential other connections and similarities between these two leaders and maybe try to make some predictions of what might be happening in the near future… Now let’s look at the bible, New King James Version, Daniel 10: Daniel 10 New International Version (NIV) Daniel’s Vision of a Man 10 In the third year of Cyrus king of Persia, a revelation was given to Daniel (who was called Belteshazzar). Its message was true and it concerned a great war.[a] The understanding of the message came to him in a vision. 2 At that time I, Daniel, mourned for three weeks. 3 I ate no choice food; no meat or wine touched my lips; and I used no lotions at all until the three weeks were over. So now we are in the third year of Donald Trump (reincarnated Cyrus the Great???) presidency, who is compared to King Cyrus in many esoteric and historic aspects, and we are nearing the “three weeks of mourning.” The three weeks of mourning are between the 17th of Tammuz (when the walls were broken down, the breach was made, when they were coming over to take over the temple and siege Jerusalem) and Tisha B´Av (the destruction of the two temples, Solomon’s temple and Herod's temple), meaning this year, 2019, between July 21st and August 11th in the Gregorian calendar. August Eleventh is like 11.8.2019, or 11+8+20+19=58. 58 is the number very much connected to the freemasonry other occult or secret societies. Let's look at some words matching the number 58 in numerology: JERUSALEM, THIRD TEMPLE, SOLOMON’S TEMPLE (the 1st temple that got destroyed on Tisha B´Av), HEROD'S TEMPLE (the 2nd temple that was destroyed on Tisha B´Av), RED HEIFER, FREEMASONRY, ROSICRUCIAN, SECRET SOCIETY, SCOTTISH RITES, DOLLAR It is important to note that Donald Trump won the 58th presidential election in the USA, his inauguration date was 20.1.2017, 20+1+20+17=58, Trump Tower has 58 floors. Trump announced he would be running for candidacy from the 58th story of the Trump Tower. August 11th is 58 days after Donald Trump’s birthday (June 14th). Donald Trump was in Israel at the exact place where they plan to build the third temple, on May 22nd 2017 (another very ritualistic day for the freemasons), exactly 811 days before 8/11, or august 11th 2019. PREDICTIVE PROGRAMMING THE SIMPSONS: The episode “APOCALYPSE COW,” quite clearly symbolizing the RED HEIFER, (154 in gematria, matching TEMPLE MOUNT, RITUAL SACRIFICE). RED HEIFER, which birth was announced by the Temple institute in Israel on September 4th 2018, a day that leaves 118 days till the end of the year, later was celebrated in Israel on 9/11/2018. The date the Red Heifer was actually born is reportedly on August 28th 2018. August 28th 2018 is like 28.8./2018, or 2+8+8=18, 1+8=9, then the year 2018 is like 2+0+1+8=11, so hidden 9/11 in the date of the Red Heifer’s birth. The birth of the red heifer is a biblical sign of building the third temple, the third temple should be built at the time when the MESSIAH comes back to planet earth, the messiah is said to come back “through the Golden Gate”. The Simpsons’ “APOCALYPSE COW” is the episode 17, Season 19 (season 19, do they point to the year 19??? btw. „AUGUST 11“ is 19 in gematria matching CHAOS, and also equals 91 matching PHOENIX), episode 17 (1+7=8, do they point to the 8th month of the “season” or year 19?). “Apocalypse Cow” came out on April 27, 2008. 2008 was a leap year, so April 27th was the 118. (11.8.) day of the year. Again, it is 11 years ago when this cartoon was put out… THE GRIM REAPER There is a video of Grim Reaper standing in the dress of Satan next to the San Francisco Golden Gate bridge, nicely done predictive programming, this video came out July 24th 2018, exactly 1 year and 18 days before August 11th 2019. 1 year 18 days. We are dealing again with the predictive programming of 118… PACIFIC RIM In this movie, which is all about a tragic events and the main one is the destruction of the GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE IN SANFRANCISCO, it shows on the scene when the bridge is being destroyed the date August 11 2013, at 9:32am (923 and its variations are the new satanic code for some kind of tragedy events). Maybe just a coincidence… SAN FRANCISCO GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE It is said that the “third temple” should be built at the time the Messiah comes back. Also, the story says that the Messiah will come back through the “Golden Gate”. The Golden Gate Bridge in San Francisco kind of shares the name with the Golden Gate in Jerusalem. That is the eastern gate of the Temple Mount, where a divine presence used to appear and will appear again, when the Messiah comes, and a new gate replaces the present one. It is important to note that Donald Trump won the 58th presidential election in the US, but is actually the 45th president of the US, since some presidents made two terms. Let's look at some word or word connections having 45 in gematria: GOLDEN GATE, HOLY BIBLE, BRIDGE, MIKE PENCE, BITCOIN Now the current mayor of San Francisco is the 45th mayor of San Francisco, and she is turning 45 years old on August 11th 2019. Her name is London Breed. Lets look at the gematria of her name: LONDON BREED 54 (45 in reverse), 317 matching SATURN, MESIAH, BITCOIN, 216 (6X6X6), 33 The construction of the Golden Gate Bridge started on January 5th, 1933. 1/5/1933 is like 1+5+19+33=58 NUMEROLOGY It is important to note that numerology belongs to the esoteric science by which all the secret and occult societies are literally obsessed! Next to the geometry or mainly sacred geometry and architecture, math, astrotheology, it is fair to state that numerology is probably the most important one of all of the teachings in all of the mystic schools. It is not the right time now to explain why it is so, it is just important to note that it is a fact. The cabalists and high ranking members of secret societies are convinced that words with the same numeric values are having some kind of interconnection or kind of the same vibrational frequencies and therefore kind of a same meaning or purpose in this material world, or the matrix we are living in. The core of numerology is that these people believe that God created the world by merging the letters with the numbers and vice versa. So, let’s get technically into it and see some other correlations and predictive programming, since we know very well that the powers that should not be, according to the cosmic rule, HAVE TO ANNOUNCE THEIR PLANS IN ADVANCE, OTHERWISE IT WILL NOT COME TO FRUITION! If we are really talking about some event on a biblical scale, that could really be called 911 2.0, there really has to be something for those who have “eyes to see and ears to hear…” August 11th 2019 is like 11+8+20+19 = 58 Let’s look at some words matching the number 58 in numerology: JERUSALEM, THIRD TEMPLE, SOLOMON´S TEMPLE (the 1st temple that got destroyed on Tisha B´Av), HEROD’S TEMPLE (the 2nd temple that was destroyed on Tisha B´Av), RED HEIFER, FREEMASONRY, ROSICRUCIAN, SECRET SOCIETY, SCOTTISH RITES, DOLLAR, GREGORIAN, CALENDAR, ZODIAC, STARS This year the most significant freemasonic ritual was undoubtedly the burning of Notre Dame. Interestingly, the 15th of april, this ritualistic day, is exactly 118 days before August 11th, or before 11.8. Coincidently, april 15th, 15.4.2019 is like 15+4+20+19=58, the same value as August 11th 2019. There was also one other satanic ritual this year, the so called “Christchurch shooting.” It happened on the 15th of March 2019. The zip code for Christchurch is 8011 (8/11). Interestingly, 2 mosques were attacked by the shooting as well as two temples were destroyed on Tisha B´Av. Coincidently the word connection CHRISTCHURCH SHOOTING is 118 in „jewish reduction“ style of numerology. The Christchurch shooting happened on 15.3.2019 , it is like 15+3+20+19=57, the same as August 10th, or 10.8.2018, which is like 10+8+20+19=57, some other words matching 57 in numerology: JEWS, MOON. 11th of August is the 223rd day of the year. 223 is the symbolic number of SKULL AND BONES. There are some words and word connections matching 223 in gematria: THE SYNAGOGUE OF SATAN, MASONIC, GOLD AND SILVER STANDARD, GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE, NATURAL DISASTER, SAN FRANCISCO BRIDGE, LET HIM WHO THAT HATH UNDERSTANDING COUNT THE NUMBER OF THE BEAST. On May 14th, 2019, the state of Israel has celebrated the 71st birthday. Words like TEMPLE, TALMUD equals 71 in numerology. May 14th is the 134. day of the year. Some words matching 134 in numerology: TISHA B´AV, NINTH OF AV (the same as TISHA B´AV), NETANYAHU. From august 11th till the Netanyahu’s birthday on October 21st is exactly 71 days. The major satanic ritual of this century was undoubtedly 9/11, or September 11th, 2001. From that day till August 11th 2019 it is exactly 17 years and 11 months. In numerology, the master number 11 and its multiples do not get reduced, the other numbers can be reduced. 17 years and 11 days. 1+7/11 is like 8 and 11 to the day 8/11. The word DEATH equals 118 in “JEWISH” style of gematria. 222 CONCLUSION You may have read all that and just think I am crazy. But there are a lot of people who put a lot of work into decoding these things and it is very interesting information. So, will something major occur on August 10th or 11th? And, if so, what will it be? I’ll leave that up to you to ponder on but there is enough evidence pointing to those dates that I felt I should at least make you aware of it. Other dates that have similar programming include September 23rd and/or November 23rd. I’ll keep an eye on those dates as well but we are thinking those dates are more likely to be of importance in 2022 or 2023. This is all just information. Do with it what you wish. But, as I said, at the very least it is very interesting! Source:https://dollarvigilante.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/JULY-2019-Dispatch-PREMIUM.pdf
Lessons learned - Crypto and Divorce - In January I was a millionaire thanks to BTC, then my wife divorces me and now I have $30,000 AMA
Crossreferencing u/nanoissuperior He wrote earlier today: https://www.reddit.com/CryptoCurrency/comments/a3n6uw/in_january_i_was_a_millionaire_thanks_to_nano_now/ Title: In January I was a millionaire thanks to Nano, now I have $25,000 AMA I was replying to his post, but my reply ended up being a bit too large as a reply and steered off-topic, albeit an interesting one. So I decided to make it its own post, because there may be a good lessons to be learned and hoping some will come forward with good information to be shared. I hope it can help anyone on this sub avoid the costly mistakes that I made. Here it goes: FLAIR: LEGAL (not in the list) ---- u/nanoissuperior are you who I think you are? I won't give out any further identifying clues, but I happen to know someone in the exact same position that could have written that exact same headline. If you read the first paragraph, you'll know if you know me. The person I know bought Nano really early, based on a tip from a friend. I got in much later. By the time he told me it had already spiked to the $5 range, when I ended up buying. I then sold in the $20's so it was a good buy nonetheless. We were former colleagues at a large, large software company somewhere in the PNW, I left the company to venture out on my own and try to launch some projects I had in mind and relocated overseas for a few years. We lost contact with each other during my time away, but we connected again during the market runup and started exchanging coin information on a daily basis during the big bull run of late 2017. That was a crazy time.... the market trend was a few degrees short of vertical for pretty much all coins! Hey, guess what? Now that I think about it, I could have written that same headline myself! In January 2018 I was a Millionaire too! Not with Nano, but thanks to purchasing a good chunk of Bitcoin in 2011 at $1.20 each. I ended up a single digit millionaire with what I had left in Bitcoin around January of 2018. And, just like you, today, from all that wealth, I have about $30.000 left, with little to show for. Can we call that even? Although my disaster was not caused entirely by market fluctuation; Mine is a more complex story and I am going to mention it, because hopefully, it could serve as a lesson to be learned for any crypto holder out there, so they don't make the make mistake I made: Don't trust anyone. Always be skeptical and watch out for your own interests. Anyhow, here it goes: After 5 years overseas, I had enough and wanted to come back to the States. My wife stated her preference to stay abroad, but eventually, she conceded albeit reluctantly. We chose a small town in CO to settle, and landed in November of 2017. We had plans to settle down and considered purchasing a home with my/our new fortune, based on the market price during that period. At the same time, I was also hesitant about the inherent tax payments due caused by such large liquidation. I was trying to have to pay taxes as far away as possible. So, I decided to wait till New Year's Eve and started liquidating my crypto on January 1st, 2018 right after midnight. This way, I would have 16 months (till April, 2019) to pay any capital gains taxes, and I was confident at the time that the market would give me that for free, especially at the pace that it was going. I have been an early adopter and have since then acquired the high levels of verification and trading limits per week, with many exchanges, but for a large sum like this, I needed several separate transactions, over the course of several weeks, especially wanting to do it with a US-based exchange that was linked to a US bank accounts, to avoid overseas wire transfers, meaning more fees. (Yes, I did look at all OTC options, but for reasons not relevant to the story, I couldn't make it happen, so I had to use the traditional Exchange channels for asset liquidation). My wife and I, initially had some fundamental disagreements on the gross amount to be spent and the type of property we should be purchasing. I wanted a smaller place, with a denser, younger community, where there'd be kids our son's age for him to play. She insisted that we should go big; we had been traveling for so many years, and we had not been able to call any of our past residences our home. It was time to settle and nest; She convinced me that we should own a property of our own that we would be proud of living in for years. One that we could own outright and would not easily outgrow. We ended up splurging and purchased in cash two luxury cars for ourselves and set our sights on a large dream house in the city's Golf & Country Club, free and clear, for us and our two kids. I don't even play golf, nor do I even like it, but, if it makes her happy and it is within the safe margins of making it happen, I figured, why not? My concerns were largely financial and the numbers were adding up. It was a bit tight against my personal safe margins, but, at the same time, I was imagining to never have to make, or even have to think about, a car or home mortgage payment ever again! Bitcoin is on a roll and there is no sign of it stopping. Fine. Let's do it, before I change my mind. Now, I admit I was extremely lucky with choosing the time of when to sell the assets. I had no clue the market would take a dive in February, and so it seemed to many that I had timed the market perfectly, selling most of my coins in the first two weeks of January of 2018. Many called me a genius for selling at the very top, as if I had some sort of wisdom to know when it would drop; the truth is much less flattering; it was nothing but dumb luck, based on me wanting to pay taxes in 2018 and defer to 2019. Awesome, well done! Yeah? well, slow down, son, not so fast. So, I gather the 7-digit lumpsum in January 2018 and we write a check for the full amount at closing in February on the property of her dreams. A property that could easily be showcased on a luxury Real Estate magazine cover. Also, remember we had just moved back to the United States with just a few suitcases each from overseas. We had no furniture, kitchenware, curtains, TV's, bed sheets, winter clothing and so many other essential things that one usually purchases over time, but which we now had to purchase all at once. Not a problem, Bitcoin had dropped slightly but still well above $15k, I believe, at the time. And, earlier, in January, I had diligently taken this expense into account and effortlessly set aside a small fortune for equipping such a large house with everything we would ever need, brand new. It seemed we were protagonists of one of the Home Makeover Shows. Finally, after working day and night, prepping the house non-stop for days and when every piece of furniture had finally arrived, been unpacked and carried to its corresponding room, it seemed most of the essentials were in place and the hard work was done. I longed for pouring myself a Scotch and to finally sit down and enjoy the fruits of my labor. I head downstairs to the dedicated walk-in, cigar-humidor / wine / Scotch cellar in the basement and grab the better bottle of Whisky of the few bottles of Scotch that I had bought earlier in the week. On my way up, I remember feeling a sense of calm, combined with a glow of excitement and this undescribable profound inner peace, all at once. This was such a rare, natural, non-drug induced high that I had never experienced. It felt so good! This sense of accomplishment of achieving that one thing I had been chasing and longing for my entire life. I had expected I would be chasing this goal for the next 15-20 years, and yet, here it was. No, where I was, was even better than expected! A place where not even my parents, who still have to make their monthly mortgage payments. I had done it! With a smile from ear to ear, I take a deep breath of relief and while looking around the property, I think to myself: "It's perfect, everything is in place and I can finally call this our home. We are so lucky and we are going to live a great life. A life that few can only dream of. So many concerns will be lifted and become redundant. Everything will be better. I'll start a fire in one of our two fireplaces and I am going to begin enjoying my semi-retired life with the first sip of my drink. That will be the official start of our new life". I head over to the kitchen to get a glass and some ice cubes, while I struggle to find which one is the freezer among the many drawers in the kitchen. It was then when I notice a handwritten note placed front and center on the kitchen counter. It is from my wife and read: "There is no easy way to say this, so I am just going to say it..... I want to legally divorce [ ...]". It continued saying that she had taken our son, and had unequivocally decided to leave me. She had already filed the paperwork for divorce and that I should expect to be served in the morning. My bliss had lasted less than 5 minutes and in less than two seconds, it turned dark, somber and I saw it all crumbling down in front of me. Like a long-awaited rocket launch, years in preparation, which then unexpectedly explodes on the launch pad during the countdown. My stomach, heart and everything in my body just sank and melted into one ball of poison in my core. I felt like throwing up. I was completely blindsided; she had played the game all along, not giving me the slightest hint of what was being concocted in the background. She had already engaged with her lawyers weeks beforehand. Her mother was already in town from another state to help out with I don't know what. I had been gaslighted and was threatened by her that I needed to see a psychiatrist due to a change in my temper that I had supposedly developed - my temper was awesome: with BTC at that price? Everything was perfect! But I obeyed and went anyhow (this would later fit her story that she had to leave with the child because she feared for her safety due to my supposed temper for which I was under treatment, therefore, I must have this temper problem, see?). Also, the purchase of the overpriced home also seemed clearly premeditated: Price was the main driver of the decision making; not location, demographics, taxes, etc. It was the wrong neighborhood for us (people much older than us, retired, golfers and no kids the same age as our son to play with). Our house happened to also be the most expensive in the neighborhood. I can see it all so clearly now. See, your crypto coins on the blockchain, are not within the US court's jurisdiction (or, at least, it's quite debatable - a gray area - ask me for the seed and I can tell you that I may have the seed, or that I may not have the seed, I may have the wrong seed, I may have forgotten it, I may have lost it - you can't prove I did not forget, or lost it, etc). However, once it is in FIAT in a bank, or invested in a property, the courts can rule on the asset(s), freeze, disburse or order a sale of the property, etc. It's done all the time. Also, the coins were technically mine, and by definition private property (not to be divided during the divorce) as they were acquired before the marriage. I could not prove its origins (I bought many of them via direct messaging members on Bitcointalk.org and mining rather than exchanges, so no records, receipts or nothing to prove otherwise: the big exchanges like BitStamp and Coinbase didn't start operations till 2013, if I m not mistaken. Instead, I would talk to one of the forum members offering coins we'd agree on a price, I'd send a check to wherever the individual seller instructed me to (Russia, Bulgaria, Japan, UK. etc) and the coins would be deposited to whatever address I provided. Yes, it was quite crude at the time. However, once I converted my coins to cash and used that cash to buy a property for the benefit of the family, it became common property and thus she then had rights to a portion of it when divided between the two parties should a divorce occur - which ended up being almost 3/4 of all assets. I was robbed in broad daylight. By the one person, I trusted with my life. The one you should trust with your life. Your life partner. And while I was in complete denial, trying to bargain, I waited too long to obtain good legal representation. When I finally ended up getting a lawyer, I was quite distraught and I clearly did not do the proper research and this resulted in a less than stellar performance and detrimental to me at many key steps in the process. I had to switch legal representation right before mediation and I can't blame my new lawyer either, as (s)he did not have the required time to catch up on all the details, (s)he did his/her best, but I was ultimately strongarmed into conceding my soon-to-be-ex-wife to let her return to the house, in exchange to obtain 50% of my son's custody, with serious and strict clauses I had to abide by. So, I had to move out, find a hole in the wall in a student apartment, pay my rent and pay our kids pre-school, while she lives grandiose, without monthly payments in the country club, till the house sells, which will likely be in the spring of next year. Nice! Due to my delay, legal mishandling and somehow every other element in her favor, she inexplicably ended up with around 3/4 of the worth of all assets, free and clear, no taxes due. Mind you, she has never financially contributed, nor made a single $ during our entire marriage. She has never worked and had $0 in her pocket when we married. She didn't even have a checking account, well in her thirties. She is no dummy; she is street smart, knows how to manipulate people, get her way with flirting and charm, while I am more intellectual and book smart. and She beat me hands-down. She is walking away with a sum of, not quite 7 figures, but close. With what I am left with from the sale of the house, I am responsible to pay for all the capital gains taxes from the liquidation to the IRS, which are due in April 2019. I don't expect there to be more left over than the estimated $30k mentioned above. Hate the market all you want, I made peace with the market and am keeping busy at hating my ex for a while for putting me in the same situation. She tripped me 1 yard before the finish line and pushed me in the prickly bushes, to cross it by herself. Go figure. When I am done hating her, I'll get back to rebuilding my life again from scratch. I am not worried, I have done it before. Just pissed, I was so close and that I was so naive to not see it coming. Sorry, I am not meaning to hijack the thread, just wanted you to know that others may have lost more than just "free" money; money we didn't really have to work for. We were the lucky ones. It is what I keep telling myself to stop me from jumping off a bridge. PS - Woah: Sorry for the wall of text; I was just going to write the first paragraph and ended up venting about my current situation. I know, I should take this issue to /depressed, /exes or /whereisthenearestbridgeIcanjumpfrom. Hopefully, this can be a lesson to those holding crypto and some can learn what NOT to do. I learned the hard way and was left with nothing. Don't be a nice guy. Don't trust anyone with your crypto. Anyhow, I am sure either our vigilant subreddit bot, or one of the mods will remove my post for not adhering to rule, and if not, I am sure that you fine people will downvote me to hell. Go ahead. Take away from me the little Karma I left too! Thanks! I learned many lessons, but here are some key ones [IANAL - any crypto-educated AL opinion appreciated here, thanks] : - Understand the concept of private property - property you acquire before getting married. INAL - this depends on the state legislation, but it is hard to prove with crypto, especially if you obtained your crypto through foreign exchanges, outside of legal jurisdictions, the petitioner might not understand or willing to invest in obtaining subpoenas and requests to businesses operating overseas, as this may result costly. - Get a lawyer who understands, or is willing to understand crypto, its benefits of being somewhat unreachable and how that can work for you. Don't let them shortchange you with: "well, let's just convert the rest to cash, because that I understand" type of reasoning. - If you do go to mediation, the above applies as well. This arbitrator or mediator needs to be one that understands the intrinsic details of crypto - for example, during the ATH, I bought 6 digits worth in $USD of Stellar. I used the very first version of the software, supporting Stellar on my hardware device, and put it all in a cold storage wallet somewhere around January. I routinely checked on my coins on the blockchain and they are there. A few months later, I try to access my account and the device returns a different public address, which contains 0 funds. I am still trying to debug this issue with the manufacturer, but the fact is that I was accused of hiding these coins or negligence and was demanded that I paid half of what was lost. or not lost, out of my pocket for money that I didn't have access either. I tried to explain it in the simplest terms, there are risks involved with using first come software. There is no 1800 number, mo tech support. no CEO, no, you can't call the BBB and complain, etc and no one seemed to be able to understand, nor willing to either. It became a huge roadblock for which I had to concede, not cash, but a concession, I was not wanting to concede. The petitioner leaned on the fact that I was either wilfully cheating or stupid enough to lose the coins and managed to create enough doubt in my character and integrity and there was nothing rational I could explain that she, or anyone else in the room would understand. Perhaps mutually contracting a seasoned crypto expert that can offer a neutral view and give his/her opinion might be worth considering. Andreas, where were you when I needed you? :) - Other examples were some coins I had bought in 2012 and gifted to some of her family's kids. I was holding these, till they would turn 16 for them to pay themselves their college, or so I told them. These coins were demanded back by the petitioner. Ok, I suggested that I would send them, but with a CHECKLOCKTIMEVERIFY value with a block height of let's say,10 years from now, out of fear that she would spend the coins and the kids would never know (they are toddlers). No one understood what I was talking about, I was made out the crazy one, I gave up, sent her the coins, unlocked and, just as I expected, within 20 minutes of receiving them, she spent $1200 worth of it (for a flight, I think). If you are the only one speaking your language, no one is willing to listen or make an effort to understand you. - It appears my coins were private property, which means, that I acquired them before the marriage and in case of divorce, if I have not moved them or used them for the common good of the marriage, then they remain mine. However, I liquidated them and cash ended up in my checking account to be used to buy groceries, cars and eventually a house, and it is then that they became common property. Only once they landed in my checking account on which she is named on. It appears that had I taken proper legal precautions with documentation, or a company/trust, where that money would have gone, instead of my checking accounts, elsewhere, I would have still been able to be the legal proprietor of the resulting cash. I can't quite remember the details, but it as something that was explained to me afterward, and I honestly think I just tuned it out, because it made me sick to know I could have held on to my wealth. Perhaps a lawyer can chime in? Again, much of the lack of information and every misstep taken was because of dealing with people that are accustomed to traditional assets and will not deviate from it. Crypto is different and is treated differently. It is so important to know the strengths and weaknesses when going into litigation about something that people don't understand. - Some more I can think of, but this post is getting way out of hand in size. Feel free to comment/suggest your own and I'll add more to the comments. Credits to: u/nanoissuperior Thanks for your post, it inspired me to write this one. Anyone, any karma you feels needs to go his way, for providing the source of inspiration, please give to O-OP. TL;DR: Wife, having contributed $0 during entire marriage, waited until I cashed out all my crypto at the top of the bull market in January 2018, for a nice seven-figure amount, and then immediately divorced me for the money. Edit: added TL;DR
Nowadays, the Bitcoin currency rate perhaps is the most unpredictable thing. All predictions about how BTC price will increase or drop are in some way similar to the weather forecasts. No one can tell what will happen to the coin tomorrow. One of the most important factors that experts rely on is the history of the currency rate over the whole period of BTC existence with its dynamics. It is essential to know what was happening to the coin as this allows you to understand what can happen to it in the future.
The first digital currency – Bitcoin – came to the world on January 9, 2009. In the same month, the creator of Bitcoin mined the first block and he also made the first financial operation in the BTC system. At the beginning of its history, the Bitcoin price was ridiculously low. The first exchange of BTC to US dollars was made in the summer of 2009 when Martti Malmi received 5.02 USD for his 5050 Bitcoins. The first official Bitcoin exchange rate to the fiat dollar was established on October 9, 2009. At that time, for 1 dollar you could buy 1 309.03 BTC. Many people now regret that they missed the opportunity to buy Bitcoin for pennies.
In 2010, events in the cryptocurrency market began to develop more intensively. The Bitcoin Market exchange was opened in February 2010, where it was possible to sell the digital coin. In May of this year, the most well-known deal with Bitcoin had happened. The programmer Laszlo Hanyecz bought 2 pizzas for 10,000 BTC. It was the first purchase using cryptocurrency in the real world. He posted a request on the crypto forum saying that he wanted to buy two pizzas. In exchange for that, he offered 10K Bitcoins that back then cost about 40 dollars. And there was a person who agreed to have this deal – it was the 19 years old Jeremy Sturdivant. Jeremy didn’t become a millionaire since then as he spent his coins to travel across the USA. As for Laszlo, he doesn’t regret about the lost millions. He was mining coins for his pleasure at that time and spent them to different non-significant things. In July of 2010, BTC price raised to 0.08 dollars. Then in November, the price went up for 50 percent. In general, 2010 was an excellent period for strengthening the position of Bitcoin. The digital currency was almost able to reach the point of one dollar.
BTC overcame the point of 1 dollar only in February of 2011. By early June, the price had grown to 10 dollars. This was a small victory for Bitcoin. Another maximum was set at the point of $31.91. In the middle of June 2011, there was a sharp drop in price: from 31.91 again to 10 dollars. The year 2011 was full of negative events. One of them happened on June 13, when a user’s electronic wallet was first hacked and 25 thousand coins were stolen from there. In a few days, some geeks hacked MtFox exchange where they got data of sixty thousand users. These events negatively affected the Bitcoin rate. It became clear that in the future the price of digital currency will be determined taking into consideration any events that occur in the market.
In 2012, the exchange rate was ranging from 8 to 12 dollars per 1 BTC. This period was also rich in significant events. One of them is that Bitcoin Central bank began its work. This bank received a license and was even recognised by European regulators.
February 22, 2013, was the day when Bitcoin began to grow again. The price reached the mark of $30. Another increase occurred at the end of January – $31.9. The upward trend continued. March 22 rate was 74.9 dollars per BTC. On the first day of April, the price went up to $100 and within another nine days, the BTC price grew to 266 dollars. But the growth did not last long. By October it was $109. The possible reason for that is the arrest of an anonymous trading platform Silk Road. Since November 2013, the price of Bitcoin began to grow anew. By the end of the month, the price exceeded all expectations and raised up to $1,200 per coin. The reason for overcoming the $1,000 point was the BTC support by Zynga game creator. Experts also noted another event that could affect the growth: one of the higher education institutions in Cyprus started accepting the Bitcoin as payment for tuition. But by the end of the first week of December, the price was 1,000 dollars. In the middle of December 2013, the BTC price dropped to 600 dollars because the China Central Bank prohibited the country’s financial institutions to maintain operations with cryptocurrency.
During the year 2014, there happened rather a significant amount of events that had an impact on the Bitcoin volatility. In the first days of January, 1 BTC was equal to 770 dollars. In February it was 700 dollars. Summer 2014 slightly strengthened the reputation of the cryptocurrency. Many experts think that it was 2014 when BTC strengthened its position in the market, in spite of the fact that Bitcoin price was low – by the end of the year it settled in at around 310 dollars. In 2014 investors began to consider Bitcoin as a potential investment as Bitcoin price predictions seemed quite attractive.
At the beginning of 2015, the BTC price started rising: with 177 dollars in January to 281 dollars to March. The number of people who were trading Bitcoin increased – there were about 160,000 people was buying and selling BTC on exchanges by August 2015. In one period of 2015 the Bitcoin price grew up to 500 dollars, but to the end of 2015, it dropped to about 350 USD.
In 2016, Japan declared Bitcoin as a currency and allowed to use it to pay for goods and services. South Africa was the next who did the same. In April 2016, BTC rate went up and reached $454 per coin. By the end of May, 1 BTC was already worth $600. The reason for the price increase might be the growth of the number of transactions in the Chinese market. The highest price in 2016 was in December – $950 for one Bitcoin.
The year of 2017 was an incredible period in respect of BTC price. It started with $1,000 for 1 coin. Already in June, it was $2,600. By the beginning of September, the price jumped to $5,000 per 1 BTC. On December 17, the Bitcoin price achieved a record and was over 20,000 US dollars. How did this happen? Here are some reasons that experts point due to the growth of Bitcoin price:
In 2017 social media broadcasted a lot of information about Bitcoin and the blockchain system;
China resumed cashout of bitcoins from the Chinese cryptocurrency exchanges;
In December 2017, the United States officially allowed trading futures for Bitcoin;
The number of companies and people who were buying BTC increased as they considered Bitcoin the profitable investment and etc.
However, later in December, the price plummeted from 20 000 dollars to 12 000 dollars. Experts had different reasons including that one of the first cryptocurrency creators sold out all his digital savings and called such investments too risky.
During the first 4 months of 2018, the price of BTC dropped below 7,000 USD. These negative dynamics were quite logical because the rise is always followed by the fall. For the first time since October 2017, the Bitcoin price fell below 6,000 dollars. On November 25, the price of Bitcoin fell even lower – $3,676 per 1 BTC. By mid-December, the bitcoin rate fell by almost 80% to its yearly rate, the price was $3,200.
What can we expect in 2019? What Bitcoin price predictions do crypto experts have? People hope that 2019 will bring new opportunities for Bitcoin and also other cryptocurrencies. Some investors and crypto enthusiasts predict that the BTC price will grow to 40 – 50,000 USD by the end of 2019. One of them, John McAfee, is assured that the price will rise to 1 million dollars by the end of 2020. He even had a bet that he posted in his Twitter saying that he would eat his “love muscle” if his BTC price prediction will not come true. There may be a number of factors that can influence the BTC price in 2019. They are:
Nasdaq, the world’s second largest exchange plans to launch futures for Bitcoin;
Coming out of the first crypto-ETP in the world;
and many other unpredictable factors that can change the price of Bitcoin.
As it was said before, Bitcoin price predictions are almost like the weather forecast – you never know what price it will have tomorrow. If you think about investing in BTC or any other cryptocurrency you should follow its rate at present time but never forget to compare it to the past. But please, don’t bet to eat any of your body parts 🙂 Feel free to follow our updates and news onTwitter,Facebook,Reddit,TelegramandBitcoinTalk. Read what the customers say about SimpleSwap onTrustpilot. Don’t hesitate to contact us with any questions you may have via [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]).
February — The first ever cryptocurrency exchange, Bitcoin Market, is established. The first trade takes place a month later. April — The first public bitcoin trade takes place: 1000BTC traded for $30 at an exchange rate of 0.03USD/1BTC May — The first real-world bitcoin transaction is undertaken by Laszlo Hanyecz, who paid 10000BTC for two Papa John’s pizzas (Approximately $25 USD) June — Bitcoin developer Gavin Andreson creates a faucet offering 5 free BTC to the public July — First notable usage of the word “blockchain” appears on BitcoinTalk forum. Prior to this, it was referred to as ‘Proof-of-Work chain’ July — Bitcoin exchange named Magic The Gathering Online eXchange—also known as Mt. Gox—established August —Bitcoin protocol bug leads to emergency hard fork December — Satoshi Nakamoto ceases communication with the world
January — One-quarter of the eventual total of 21M bitcoins have been generated February — Bitcoin reaches parity for the first time with USD April — Bitcoin reaches parity with EUR and GBP June — WikiLeaks begins accepting Bitcoin donations June — Mt. Gox hacked, resulting in suspension of trading and a precipitous price drop for Bitcoin August — First Bitcoin Improvement Proposal: BIP Purpose and Guidelines October — Litecoin released December — Bitcoin featured as a major plot element in an episode of ‘The Good Wife’ as 9.45 million viewers watch.
May — Bitcoin Magazine, founded by Mihai Alisie and Vitalik Buterin, publishes first issue July — Government of Estonia begins incorporating blockchain into digital ID efforts September — Bitcoin Foundation created October — BitPay reports having over 1,000 merchants accepting bitcoin under its payment processing service November — First Bitcoin halving to 25 BTC per block
February — Reddit begins accepting bitcoins for Gold memberships March — Cyprus government bailout levies bank accounts with over $100k. Flight to Bitcoin results in major price spike. May —Total Bitcoin value surpasses 1 billion USD with 11M Bitcoin in circulation May — The first cryptocurrency market rally and crash takes place. Prices rise from $13 to $220, and then drop to $70 June — First major cryptocurrency theft. 25,000 BTC is stolen from Bitcoin forum founder July — Mastercoin becomes the first project to conduct an ICO August — U.S. Federal Court issues opinion that Bitcoin is a currency or form of money October — The FBI shuts down dark web marketplace Silk Road, confiscating approximately 26,000 bitcoins November — Vitalik Buterin releases the Ethereum White Paper: “A Next-Generation Smart Contract and Decentralized Application Platform” December — The first commit to the Ethereum codebase takes place
January — Vitalik Buterin announces Ethereum at the North American Bitcoin Conference in Miami February — HMRC in the UK classifies Bitcoin as private money March — Newsweek claims Dorian Nakamoto is Bitcoin creator. He is not April — Gavin Wood releases the Ethereum Yellow Paper: “Ethereum: A Secure Decentralised Generalised Transaction Ledger” June — Ethereum Foundation established in Zug, Switzerland June — US Marshals Service auctions off 30,000 Bitcoin confiscated from Silk Road. All are purchased by venture capitalist Tim Draper July — Ethereum token launch raises 31,591 BTC ($18,439,086) over 42 days September — TeraExchange launches first U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission approved Bitcoin over-the-counter swap October — ConsenSys is founded by Joe Lubin December — By year’s end, Paypal, Zynga, u/, Expedia, Newegg, Dell, Dish Network, and Microsoft are all accepting Bitcoin for payments
January — Coinbase opens up the first U.S-based cryptocurrency exchange February — Stripe initiates bitcoin payment integration for merchants April — NASDAQ initiates blockchain trial June — NYDFS releases final version of its BitLicense virtual currency regulations July — Ethereum’s first live mainnet release—Frontier—launched. August — Augur, the first token launch on the Ethereum network takes place September — R3 consortium formed with nine financial institutions, increases to over 40 members within six months October — Gemini exchange launches, founded by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss November — Announcement of first zero knowledge proof, ZK-Snarks December — Linux Foundation establishes Hyperledger project
January — Zcash announced February — HyperLedger project announced by Linux Foundation with thirty founding members March — Second Ethereum mainnet release, Homestead, is rolled out. April — The DAO (decentralized autonomous organization) launches a 28-day crowdsale. After one month, it raises an Ether value of more than US$150M May — Chinese Financial Blockchain Shenzhen Consortium launches with 31 members June — The DAO is attacked with 3.6M of the 11.5M Ether in The DAO redirected to the attacker’s Ethereum account July — The DAO attack results in a hard fork of the Ethereum Blockchain to recover funds. A minority group rejecting the hard fork continues to use the original blockchain renamed Ethereum Classic July — Second Bitcoin halving to 12.5BTC per block mined November — CME Launches Bitcoin Price Index
January — Bitcoin price breaks US$1,000 for the first time in three years February — Enterprise Ethereum Alliance formed with 30 founding members, over 150 members six months later March — Multiple applications for Bitcoin ETFs rejected by the SEC April — Bitcoin is officially recognized as currency by Japan June — EOS begins its year-long ICO, eventually raising $4 billion July — Parity hack exposes weaknesses in multisig wallets August — Bitcoin Cash forks from the Bitcoin Network October — Ethereum releases Byzantium soft fork network upgrade, part one of Metropolis September — China bans ICOs October — Bitcoin price surpasses $5,000 USD for the first time November — Bitcoin price surpasses $10,000 USD for the first time December — Ethereum Dapp Cryptokitties goes viral, pushing the Ethereum network to its limits
January — Ethereum price peaks near $1400 USD March — Google bans all ads pertaining to cryptocurrency March — Twitter bans all ads pertaining to cryptocurrency April — 2018 outpaces 2017 with $6.3 billion raised in token launches in the first four months of the year April — EU government commits $300 million to developing blockchain projects June — The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission states that Ether is not a security. July — Over 100,000 ERC20 tokens created August — New York Stock Exchange owner announces Bakkt, a federally regulated digital asset exchange October — Bitcoin’s 10th birthday November — VC investment in blockchain tech surpasses $1 billion December — 90% of banks in the US and Europe report exploration of blockchain tech
January — Coinstar machines begin selling cryptocurrency at grocery stores across the US February — Ethereum’s Constantinople hard fork is released, part two of Metropolis April — Bitcoin surpasses 400 million total transactions June — Facebook announces Libra July — United States senate holds hearings titled ‘Examining Regulatory Frameworks for Digital Currencies and Blockchain” August — Ethereum developer dominance reaches 4x that of any other blockchain October — Over 80 million distinct Ethereum addresses have been created September — Santander bank settles both sides of a $20 million bond on Ethereum November — Over 3000 Dapps created. Of them, 2700 are built on Ethereum
Vechain raised $1 million USD in December 2015 and the company is seeking $3-$5 million USD over the next six months. The company’s vision includes providing a Blockchain-as-a-Service platform in 2017 that would deliver all the functionality needed for any industry vertical to implement auditable blockchain product authentication.
IBM is a premier member of Linux Foundation’s Hyperledger Project, a collaborative effort started in December to establish, build and sustain an open, distributed ledger platform that will satisfy a variety of use cases across multiple industries.
The Hyperledger Project, led by the Linux Foundation and aimed at the development of an enterprise-grade, open source distributed ledger framework and codebase, recently announced that seven new members have joined the project. New members are INVeSHARE, MonetaGo, Swedish developer Norbloc, the Moscow Exchange, and three Chinese firms: BitSE, Belink Technologies and Onchain.
Shanghai-based BitSE, established in 2013 by founders from IBM, Alibaba and Louis Vuitton, developed Blockchain-as-a-Service (BaaS) applications. The company operates a research lab focused on distributed consensus, distributed applications and smart contracts. The company’s products include VeChain, an anti-counterfeiting solution. BitSE is also developing blockchain development and running environment Quantum, smart contract applications and private blockchains. Earlier in June, BitSE established a partnership with PwC China to create a team of 50 specialists and bring one-stop blockchain technology solutions to the China market.
"At present, there are only two clients who have reached a cooperation agreement, namely the international freight forwarding company KN and an Internet of Things company. The luxury brand customers are in the negotiation, and the revenue is unknown."
"At present, his team has 41 people. CEO Qian Dejun has been in IBM for 12 years and has served as the general manager of the regional branch. CTO Shuai began his career at Alibaba and was an early participant and promoter of the China blockchain community. LV China CIO, CFO Zhang Jie used to be PwC China Risk Security Senior Manager."
Demonstrating the development of fashion technology, or FashTech, VeChain chips have been added to items making up Babyghost’s 2017 spring and summer collection, unveiled at the recent Shanghai Fashion Week.
I just found this one interesting - Words of Chun Yin Cheung (partner in PwC China’s risk assurance practice) - mentions VeChain, but not in the context of China launching currency on their platform. This just legitimizes Vechain & China to me.
I was going through old emails today and came across this one I sent out to family on January 4, 2018. It was a reflection on the 2017 crypto bull market and where I saw it heading, as well as some general advice on crypto, investment, and being safe about how you handle yourself in cryptoland. I feel that we are on the cusp of a new bull market right now, so I thought that I would put this out for at least a few people to see *before* the next bull run, not after. While the details have changed, I don't see a thing in this email that I fundamentally wouldn't say again, although I'd also probably insist that people get a Yubikey and use that for all 2FA where it is supported. Happy reading, and sorry for some of the formatting weirdness -- I cleaned it up pretty well from the original email formatting, but I love lists and indents and Reddit has limitations... :-/ Also, don't laught at my token picks from January 2018! It was a long time ago and (luckliy) I took my own advice about moving a bunch into USD shortly after I sent this. I didn't hit the top, and I came back in too early in the summer of 2018, but I got lucky in many respects. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Jan-4, 2018 Hey all! I woke up this morning to ETH at a solid $1000 and decided to put some thoughts together on what I think crypto has done and what I think it will do. *******, if you could share this to your kids I’d appreciate it -- I don’t have e-mail addresses, and it’s a bit unwieldy for FB Messenger… Hopefully they’ll at least find it thought-provoking. If not, they can use it as further evidence that I’m a nutjob. 😉 Some history before I head into the future. I first mined some BTC in 2011 or 2012 (Can’t remember exactly, but it was around the Christmas holidays when I started because I had time off from work to get it set up and running.) I kept it up through the start of summer in 2012, but stopped because it made my PC run hot and as it was no longer winter, ********** didn’t appreciate the sound of the fans blowing that hot air into the room any more. I’ve always said that the first BTC I mined was at $1, but looking back at it now, that’s not true – It was around $2. Here’s a link to BTC price history. In the summer of 2013 I got a new PC and moved my programs and files over before scrapping the old one. I hadn’t touched my BTC mining folder for a year then, and I didn’t even think about salvaging those wallet files. They are now gone forever, including the 9-10BTC that were in them. While I can intellectually justify the loss, it was sloppy and underlines a key thing about cryptocurrency that I believe will limit its widespread adoption by the general public until it is addressed and solved: In cryptoland, you are your own bank, and if you lose your password or account number, there is no person or organization that can help you reset it so that you can get access back. Your money is gone forever. On April 12, 2014 I bought my first BTC through Coinbase. BTC had spiked to $1000 and been in the news, at least in Japan. This made me remember my old wallet and freak out for a couple of months trying to find it and reclaim the coins. I then FOMO’d (Fear Of Missing Out”) and bought $100 worth of BTC. I was actually very lucky in my timing and bought at around $430. Even so, except for a brief 50% swing up almost immediately afterwards that made me check prices 5 times a day, BTC fell below my purchase price by the end of September and I didn’t get back to even until the end of 2015. In May 2015 I bought my first ETH at around $1. I sent some guy on bitcointalk ~$100 worth of BTC and he sent me 100 ETH – all on trust because the amounts were small and this was a small group of people. BTC was down in the $250 range at that point, so I had lost 30-40% of my initial investment. This was of the $100 invested, so not that much in real terms, but huge in percentages. It also meant that I had to buy another $100 of BTC on Coinbase to send to this guy. A few months after I purchased my ETH, BTC had doubled and ETH had gone down to $0.50, halving the value of my ETH holdings. I was even on the first BTC purchase finally, but was now down 50% on the ETH I had bought. The good news was that this made me start to look at things more seriously. Where I had skimmed white papers and gotten a superficial understanding of the technology before FOMO’ing, I started to act as an investor, not a speculator. Let me define how I see those two different types of activity:
Investors buy because the price is less than the value they see in the investment. Speculators buy because they think that someone will pay more in the future than they are paying now.
Investors trade on information (The white paper was really well-written, had a clear technical advantage over other alternatives, and addresses a need that I can understand and value.) Speculators trade on sentiment. (Buy the rumor! Sell the news!)
Investors usually look at the investment and themselves and can describe why they purchase in those terms (ABC-Coin provides (service) that isn’t addressed yet and matches (requirements) for an investment.) Speculators usually describe why they bought something in terms of how other people think (I think that other people think that the price will rise, so I want to get ahead of that.)
Investors don’t necessarily check the price every day. The can, and very often I do, but it isn’t required because fundamentals don’t often change on a dime. Speculators need to be glued to a price feed, because sentiment very often changes on a dime.
Investors like ideas, people, business plans, and market opportunities. Good ones are like Spock. Speculators like trends. They are tribal.
Investors have a longer time horizon than speculators. In cryptoland, the notion of a “longer” time horizon is still laughably small (months) compared to traditional markets, but it certainly isn’t weeks or days or hours, which is whre speculators often live.
So what has been my experience as an investor? After sitting out the rest of 2015 because I needed to understand the market better, I bought into ETH quite heavily, with my initial big purchases being in March-April of 2016. Those purchases were in the $11-$14 range. ETH, of course, dropped immediately to under $10, then came back and bounced around my purchase range for a while until December of 2016, when I purchased a lot more at around $8. I also purchased my first ICO in August of 2016, HEAT. I bought 25ETH worth. Those tokens are now worth about half of their ICO price, so about 12.5ETH or $12500 instead of the $25000 they would be worth if I had just kept ETH. There are some other things with HEAT that mean I’ve done quite a bit better than those numbers would suggest, but the fact is that the single best thing I could have done is to hold ETH and not spend the effort/time/cost of working with HEAT. That holds true for about every top-25 token on the market when compared to ETH. It certainly holds true for the many, many tokens I tried to trade in Q1-Q2 of 2017. In almost every single case I would have done better and slept better had I just held ETH instead of trying to be smarter than Mr. Market. But, I made money on all of them except one because the crypto market went up more in USD terms than any individual coin went down in ETH or BTC terms. This underlines something that I read somewhere and that I take to heart: A rising market makes everyone seem like a genius. A monkey throwing darts at a list of the top 100 cryptocurrencies last year would have doubled his money. Here’s a chart from September that shows 2017 year-to-date returns for the top 10 cryptocurrencies, and all of them went up a *lot* more between then and December. A monkey throwing darts at this list there would have quintupled his money. When evaluating performance, then, you have to beat the monkey, and preferably you should try to beat a Wall Street monkey. I couldn’t, so I stopped trying around July 2017. My benchmark was the BLX, a DAA (Digital Asset Array – think fund like a Fidelity fund) created by ICONOMI. I wasn’t even close to beating the BLX returns, so I did several things.
I went from holding about 25 different tokens to holding 10 now. More on that in a bit.
I used those funds to buy ETH and BLX. ETH has done crazy-good since then and BLX has beaten BTC handily, although it hasn’t done as well as ETH.
I used some of those funds to set up an arbitrage operation.
The arbitrage operation is why I kept the 11 tokens that I have now. All but a couple are used in an ETH/token pair for arbitrage, and each one of them except for one special case is part of BLX. Why did I do that? I did that because ICONOMI did a better job of picking long-term holds than I did, and in arbitrage the only speculative thing you must do is pick the pairs to trade. My pairs are (No particular order):
I also hold PLU, PLBT, and ART. These two are multi-year holds for me. I have not purchased BTC once since my initial $200, except for a few cases where BTC was the only way to go to/from an altcoin that didn’t trade against ETH yet. Right now I hold about the same 0.3BTC that I held after my first $100 purchase, so I don’t really count it. Looking forward to this year, I am positioning myself as follows:
ETH will still be my core holding. It is the “deepest in the stack” crypto investment that I have. “Deep in the stack” is a programming term that gets at the idea that most software is built on other software. If you just think about your notebook, you have your OS, and programs run on that. But even inside the OS there is a stack. The bottom of your stack is the kernel, and on top of that are the drivers, protocols, and other layers that allow the programs to talk to the OS, the hard drive, the screen, the mouse, your printer, etc. You can change your mouse or printer easily. Changing things deeper in the stack becomes harder and harder. ETH is deep in the crypto stack, so is very hard to dislodge – Around 60 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap run on top of Ethereum, so getting rid of Ethereum is something that would take a long time to do.
DNT, QTUM, ZRX, and OMG are all, to varying degrees, “deep in the stack” tokens that, once established, will be very hard to dislodge.
That said, I am peeling away some of my holdings into USD right now, because big changes are afoot and they are going to cause market disruptions. I’m going to come right out and admit that this is speculative, but I’m also going to back it up with some non-speculative facts.
The SEC has been sending out hundreds of subpoenas to cryptocurrency organizations over the past 3-4 months. These subpoenas are simply asking for information and nobody has been charged with any crimes or misdoings, but it is clear that the SEC is getting together information so that they can begin to regulate cryptoland. When that happens, other countries will follow, and that means:
Some tokens will be deemed outright scams and people will be prosecuted.
Some tokens will be deemed securities and will be regulated.
Some tokens will not be deemed scams or securities and will continue as they have.
Looking at this, it is clear to me that the tokens that escape prosecution and regulation should do better, but the short-term impact will be brutal and ugly. It would not surprise me at all to see a 50% drop in overall market cap within Q1-Q2, with Q1 being more likely.
Cryptoland has always been a bit nuts, but it is more nuts now than I have ever seen it. Back in 2011-2014 it was a freaks-n-geeks show where people were all about the technology and I would sit around for a 3-day weekend installing a *nix VM on my Windows machine so that I could compile the most recent source and run a CUDA SHA-256 routine rather than thrash my CPU. If that doesn’t make sense to you, you wouldn’t have even thought about being involved.
Now, people see Bitcoin advertisements in their Facebook feed and think “I gotta get on the BTC train!” before going to Coinbase and buying some with a credit card. They don’t know anything about crypto, and they are getting eaten alive – It is no coincidence that BTC peaked after the Thanksgiving holidays when people sat around the table and Janice got Uncle Mike and Cousin Bob all excited as she talked about going to Cancun for Christmas because of her crypto winnings. Huge amounts of fiat got transferred from newbies to BTC whales during this period, and once the whales were done, BTC had dropped from $20,000 to $12,000. It’s now back at $15,000, but for people who bought at a higher level, this sucks. As a result many have moved from BTC to ETH, with the single biggest money flow in crypto in December being the BTC à ETH flow. As a result, it’s no coincidence that ETH is at all-time highs now. The thing is, though, that even most people that moved from BTC to ETH really have no idea what they are doing. They are acting on buzzwords and emotion. They are speculators and are going to get crushed.
The stock market is quite high right now, but people are starting to worry that it is too high and that we are going to enter into a period of inflation again. This has caused gold to go up a lot the last quarter and is likely also responsible a bit for the rise in cryptos. If this view is correct, then cryptos stay stronger than if that pressure wasn’t there. If wrong, then cryptos will swing down as money exits cryptoland for more traditional markets.
I am spending most of my time and money on the arbitrage effort. The nice thing about arbitrage is that it works as the markets go up, and it works as the markets go down. When markets are too volatile, however, arbitrage can get very messy and dangerous, with each trade generating a loss instead of a profit, so I am working right now to tune the algorithms to take into account rate-of-change and add in some circuit breaker triggers. Once this is done I will expand those operations.
I am getting much more serious about systems security.
I have a Nano Ledger and recommend that anyone with >$1000 of crypto have one. The Trezor is also supposed to be good, but I haven’t used it.
I will set up a dedicated *nix notebook that is used for nothing except my crypto work. All it takes is one keylogger to get on your PC/Mac and your crypto is gone. What is on your Nano Ledger will be OK, but they will sweep out your exchange account or Coinbase account faster than you can type. A standard Linux installation with Chrome and nothing else is as about as secure as you can get in the civilian world.
If you don’t use LastPass or a similar password manager yet, you need to do that. Your password to LastPass should be at least 16 characters long and should not have a recognizable English word in it. If you think that “Iluvu4evah” is a secure password, you’re wrong.
Hackers know that “4”=”for” and “u”=”you”. Writing a script to substitute those in is trivial if they want to write the script, but it’s much easier for them to download one of the many, many programs out there that already do this.
If your password contains any string of numbers from anything that can be associated with you at any time in your life, it is insecure. Take those numbers out of the character count because they are an insignificant barrier to cracking your account.
The good news is that you probably won’t be targeted, but if you ever mention online that you are doing anything significant in crypto, that chance increased enormously.
*Never* talk with *anyone* about how much you have in crypto. You’ll notice that I haven’t here. There is no reason to tell even a family member how much you have unless you are sharing a tax form. Sure, you may trust them, but all it takes if for someone to overhead someone else mention at a party that a relative got into crypto a long time ago and made a bunch of money. That person can also then be subjected to the $10 hack and force you to send all your crypto to them.
Your password to LastPass (Or equivalent.) should look something like this -> 6k0jQMoziX&D#4W8
Yes, it’s a headache. Imagine your headache, though, were you to open your account one day and find all of your money gone.
Looking at my notes, I have two other things that I wanted to work into this email that I didn’t get to, so here they are:
Just like with free apps and other software, if you are getting something of value and you didn’t pay anything for it, you need to ask why this is. With apps, the phrase is “If you didn’t pay for the product, you are the product”, and this works for things such as pump groups, tips, and even technical analysis. Here’s how I see it.
Technical analysis (TA) is something that has been argued about for longer than I’ve been alive, but I think that it falls into the same boat. In short, TA argues that there are patterns in trading that can be read and acted upon to signal when one must buy or sell. It has been used forever in the stock and foreign exchange markets, and people use it in crypto as well. Let’s break down these assumptions a bit.
i. First, if crypto were like the stock or forex markets we’d all be happy with 5-7% gains per year rather than easily seeing that in a day. For TA to work the same way in crypto as it does in stocks and foreign exchange, the signals would have to be *much* stronger and faster-reacting than they work in the traditional market, but people use them in exactly the same way. ii. Another area where crypto is very different than the stock and forex markets centers around market efficiency theory. This theory says that markets are efficient and that the price reflects all the available information at any given time. This is why gold in New York is similar in price to gold in London or Shanghai, and why arbitrage margins are easily <0.1% in those markets compared to cryptoland where I can easily get 10x that. Crypto simply has too much speculation and not enough professional traders in it yet to operate as an efficient market. That fundamentally changes the way that the market behaves and should make any TA patterns from traditional markets irrelevant in crypto. iii. There are services, both free and paid that claim to put out signals based on TA for when one should buy and sell. If you think for even a second that they are not front-running (Placing orders ahead of yours to profit.) you and the other people using the service, you’re naïve. iv. Likewise, if you don’t think that there are people that have but together computerized systems to get ahead of people doing manual TA, you’re naïve. The guys that I have programming my arbitrage bots have offered to build me a TA bot and set up a service to sell signals once our position is taken. I said no, but I am sure that they will do it themselves or sell that to someone else. Basically they look at TA as a tip machine where when a certain pattern is seen, people act on that “tip”. They use software to see that “tip” faster and take a position on it so that when slower participants come in they either have to sell lower or buy higher than the TA bot did. Remember, if you are getting a tip for free, you’re the product. In TA I see a system when people are all acting on free preset “tips” and getting played by the more sophisticated market participants. Again, you have to beat that Wall Street monkey.
If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus, think about it this way: If TA was real, Wall Street would have figured it out decades ago and we would have TA funds that would be beating the market. We don’t.
If you still don’t agree that TA is bogus and that its real and well, proven, then you must think that all smart traders use them. Now follow that logic forward and think about what would happen if every smart trader pushing big money followed TA. The signals would only last for a split second and would then be overwhelmed by people acting on them, making them impossible to leverage. This is essentially what the efficient market theory postulates for all information, including TA.
OK, the one last item. Read this weekly newsletter – You can sign up at the bottom. It is free, so they’re selling something, right? 😉 From what I can tell, though, Evan is a straight-up guy who posts links and almost zero editorial comments. Happy 2018.
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