Wandering From the Path? | Monthly Portfolio Update - August 2020
Midway along the journey of our lifeI woke to find myself in a dark wood,for I had wandered off from the straight path. Dante, The Divine Comedy: Inferno, Canto I This is my forty-fifth portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal. Portfolio goal My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars). This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent. Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund $733 769
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund $41 794
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund $78 533
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund $110 771
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) $216 758
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) $64 542
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) $237 138
Telstra shares (TLS) $1 540
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) $6 043
NIB Holdings shares (NHF) $5 532
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) $121 976
Secured physical gold $19 535
Ratesetter (P2P lending) $8 998
Bitcoin $177 310
Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) $17 421
Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) $2 759
BrickX (P2P rental real estate) $4 477
Total portfolio value $1 848 896 (+$48 777 or 2.7%) Asset allocation
Australian shares 41.5%
Global shares 22.6%
Emerging market shares 2.2%
International small companies 2.8%
Total international shares 27.6%
Total shares 69.2% (5.8% under)
Total property securities 0.2% (0.2% over)
Australian bonds 4.4%
International bonds 8.9%
Total bonds 13.3% (1.7% under)
Gold and alternatives 17.2% (7.2% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio. [Chart] Comments The portfolio has increased in value for the fifth consecutive month, and is starting to approach the monthly value last reached in January. The portfolio has grown over $48 000, or 2.7 per cent this month, reflecting the strong market recovery since late March [Chart] The growth in the portfolio was broadly-based across global and Australian equities, with an increase of around 3.8 per cent. Following strong previous rises, gold holdings decreased by around 2.2 per cent, while Bitcoin continued to increase in value (by 2.5 per cent). Combined, the value of gold and Bitcoin holdings remain at a new peak, while total equity holdings are still below their late January peak to the tune of around $50 000. The fixed income holdings of the portfolio continue to fall below the target allocation. [Chart] The expanding value of gold and Bitcoin holdings since January last year have actually had the practical effect of driving new investments into equities, since effectively for each dollar of appreciation, for example, my target allocation to equities rises by seven dollars. New investments this month have been in the Vanguard international shares exchange-traded fund (VGS) and the Australian shares equivalent (VAS). These have been directed to bring my actual asset allocation more closely in line with the target split between Australian and global shares set out in the portfolio plan. As the exchange traded funds such as VGS, VAS and Betashares A200 now make up nearly 30 per cent of the overall portfolio, the quarterly payments they provide have increased in magnitude and importance. Early in the journey, third quarter distributions were essentially immaterial events. Using the same 'median per unit' forecast approach as recently used for half yearly forecasts would suggest a third quarter payout due at the end of September of around $6000. Due to significant announced dividend reductions across this year I am, however, currently assuming this is likely to be significantly lower, and perhaps in the vicinity of $4000 or less. Finding true north: approach to achieving a set asset allocation One of the choices facing all investors with a preferred asset allocation is how strictly the target is applied over time, and what variability is acceptable around that. There is a significant body of financial literature around that issue. My own approach has been to seek to target the preferred asset allocation dynamically, through buying the asset class that is furthest from its target, with new portfolio contributions, and re-investment of paid out distributions. As part of monitoring asset allocation, I also track a measure of 'absolute' variance, to understand at a whole of portfolio level how far it is from the desired allocation. This is the sum of the absolute value of variances (e.g. so that being 3 per cent under target in shares, and 7 per cent over target in fixed interest will equal an absolute variance of 10 per cent under this measure). This measure is currently sitting near its highest level in around 2 years, at 15.0 per cent, as can be seen in the chart below. [Chart] The dominant reason for this higher level of variance from target is significant appreciation in the price of gold and Bitcoin holdings. Mapping the sources of portfolio variances Changes in target allocations in the past makes direct comparisons problematic, but previous peaks of the variance measure matches almost perfectly past Bitcoin price movements. For a brief period in January 2018, gold and Bitcoin combined constituted 20 per cent, or 1 in 5 dollars of the entire portfolio. Due to the growth in other equity components of the portfolio since this level has not been subsequently exceeded. Nonetheless, it is instructive to understand that the dollar value of combined gold and Bitcoin holdings is actually up around $40 000 from that brief peak. With the larger portfolio, this now means they together make up 17.2 per cent of the total portfolio value. Tacking into the wind of portfolio movements? The logical question to fall out from this situation is: to what extent should this drive an active choice to sell down gold and Bitcoin until they resume their 10 per cent target allocation? This would currently imply selling around $130 000 of gold or Bitcoin, and generating a capital gains tax liability of potentially up to $27 000. Needless to say this is not an attractive proposition. Several other considerations lead me to not make this choice:
The problem may solve itself as portfolio grows - Growth and continued investments in the portfolio will tend to reduce the variance caused by gold and Bitcoin. The asset allocation targeting approach I adopt has seen continued contributions to equities, reducing the ability of these alternative assets to add to future variance.
Falls in Bitcoin or gold values will also solve the problem - Conversely, price falls in Bitcoin or gold will tend to reduce the variance issue, and such price falls have significant precedents, with for example Bitcoin holdings falling to a value of around $50 000 as recently as January 2019.
If neither of these happen, there may be bigger issues to solve - The only scenario where neither of these alleviating factors occur is should gold and Bitcoin continue to rapidly appreciate compared to other assets, in which case it is difficult to see the value of reducing exposure now.
Does Bitcoin even fit the asset allocation model? - Bitcoin in particular is not a well established or accepted asset class as yet, so it may not be appropriate to apply traditional allocation rules to it - it may be functioning more as a hedge or option against extreme states of the world. Linked to this is the high degree of volatility in Bitcoin. Adopting too tight a target on Bitcoin holdings would potentially see a need to buy and sell Bitcoin frequently, where my intention is to actually never purchase any more.
This approach is a departure from a mechanistic implementation of an asset allocation rule. Rather, the approach I take is pragmatic. Tracking course drift in the portfolio components As an example, I regularly review whether a significant fall in Bitcoin prices to its recent lows would alter my monthly decision on where to direct new investments. So far it does not, and the 'signal' continues to be to buy new equities. Another tool I use is a monthly measurement of the absolute dollar variance of Australian and global shares, as well as fixed interest, from their ideal target allocations. The chart below sets this out for the period since January 2019. A positive value effectively represents an over-allocation to a sector, a negative value, an under-allocation compared to target. [Chart] This reinforces the overall story that, as gold and Bitcoin have grown in value, there emerges a larger 'deficit' to the target. Falls in equities markets across February and March also produce visibly larger 'dollar gaps' to the target allocation. This graph enables a tracking of the impact of portfolio gains or losses, and volatility, and a better understanding of the practical task of returning to target allocations. Runaway lines in either direction would be evidence that current approaches for returning to targets were unworkable, but so far this does not appear to be the case. A crossing over: a credit card FI milestone This month has seen a long awaited milestone reached. Calculated on a past three year average, portfolio distributions now entirely meet monthly credit card expenses. This means that every credit card purchase - each shopping trip or online purchase - is effectively paid for by average portfolio distributions. At the start of this journey, distributions were only equivalent to around 40 per cent of credit card expenses. As time has progressed distributions have increased to cover a larger and larger proportion of card expenses. [Chart] Most recently, with COVID-19 related restrictions having pushed card expenditure down further, the remaining gap to this 'Credit Card FI' target has closed. Looked at on an un-smoothed basis, expenditures on the credit card have continued to be slightly lower than average across the past month. The below chart details the extent to which portfolio distributions (red) cover estimated total expenses (green), measured month to month. [Chart] Credit card expenditure makes up around 80 per cent of total spending, so this is not a milestone that makes paid work irrelevant or optional. Similarly, if spending rises as various travel and other restrictions ease, it is possible that this position could be temporary. Equally, should distributions fall dramatically below long term averages in the year ahead, this could result in average distributions falling faster than average monthly card expenditure. Even without this, on a three year average basis, monthly distributions will decline as high distributions received in the second half of 2017 slowly fall out of the estimation sample. For the moment, however, a slim margin exists. Distributions are $13 per month above average monthly credit card bills. This feels like a substantial achievement to note, as one unlooked for at the outset of the journey. Progress Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below. Measure Portfolio All Assets Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 84.8% 114.6% Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 103.5% 139.9% Total expenses – $89 000 pa 82.9% 112.1% Summary What feels like a long winter is just passed. The cold days and weeks have felt repetitive and dominated by a pervasive sense of uncertainty. Yet through this time, this wandering off, the portfolio has moved quite steadily back towards it previous highs. That it is even approaching them in the course of just a few months is unexpected. What this obscures is the different components of growth driving this outcome. The portfolio that is recovering, like the index it follows, is changing in its underlying composition. This can be seen most starkly in the high levels of variance from the target portfolio sought discussed above. It is equally true, however, of individual components such as international equity holdings. In the case of the United States the overall index performance has been driven by share price growth in just a few information technology giants. Gold and Bitcoin have emerged from the shadows of the portfolio to an unintended leading role in portfolio growth since early 2019. This month I have enjoyed reading the Chapter by Chapter release of the Aussie FIRE e-book coordinated by Pearler. I've also been reading posts from some newer Australian financial independence bloggers, Two to Fire, FIRE Down Under, and Chasing FIRE Down Under. In podcasts, I have enjoyed the Mad Fientist's update on his fourth year of financial freedom, and Pat and Dave's FIRE and Chill episodes, including an excellent one on market timing fallacies. The ASX Australian Investor Study 2020 has also been released - setting out some broader trends in recent Australian investment markets, and containing a snapshot of the holdings, approaches and views of everyday investors. This contained many intriguing findings, such as the median investment portfolio ($130 000), its most frequent components (direct Australian shares), and how frequently portfolios are usually checked - with 61 per cent of investors checking their portfolios at least once a month. This is my own approach also. Monthly assessments allow me to gauge and reflect on how I or elements of the portfolio may have wandered off the straight way in the middle of the journey. Without this, the risk is that dark woods and bent pathways beckon. The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
vectorbt - blazingly fast backtesting and interactive data analysis for quants
I want to share with you a tool that I was continuously developing during the last couple of months. https://github.com/polakowo/vectorbt As a data scientist, when I first started flirting with quant trading, I quickly realized that there is a shortage of Python packages that can actually enable me to iterate over a long list of possible strategies and hyper-parameters quickly. Most open-source backtesting libraries are very evolved in terms of functionality, but simply lack speed. Questions like "Which strategy is better: X or Y?" require fast computation and transformation of data. This not only prolongs your lifecycle of designing strategies, but is dangerous after all: limited number of tests is similar to a tunnel vision - it prevents you from seeing the bigger picture and makes you dive into the market blindly. After trying tweaking pandas, multiprocessing, and even evaluating my strategies on a cluster with Spark, I finally found myself using Numba - a Python library that can compile slow Python code to be run at native machine code speed. And since there were no packages in the Python ecosystem that could even closely match the speed of my own backtests, I made vectorbt. vectorbt combines pandas, NumPy and Numba sauce to obtain orders-of-magnitude speedup over other libraries. It builds upon the idea that each instance of a trading strategy can be represented in a vectorized form, so multiple strategy instances can be packed into a single multi-dimensional array. In this form, they can processed in a highly efficient manner and compared easily. It also integrates Plotly and ipywidgets to display complex charts and dashboards akin to Tableau right in the Jupyter notebook. You can find basic examples and explanations in the documentation. Below is an example of doing in total 67,032 tests on three different timeframes of Bitcoin price history to explore how performance of a MACD strategy depends upon various combinations of fast, slow and signal windows:
import vectorbt as vbt import numpy as np import yfinance as yf from itertools import combinations, product # Fetch daily price of Bitcoin price = yf.Ticker("BTC-USD").history(period="max")['Close'] price = price.vbt.split_into_ranges(n=3) # Define hyper-parameter space # 49 fast x 49 slow x 19 signal fast_windows, slow_windows, signal_windows = vbt.indicators.create_param_combs( (product, (combinations, np.arange(2, 51, 1), 2), np.arange(2, 21, 1))) # Run MACD indicator macd_ind = vbt.MACD.from_params( price, fast_window=fast_windows, slow_window=slow_windows, signal_window=signal_windows, hide_params=['macd_ewm', 'signal_ewm'] ) # Long when MACD is above zero AND signal entries = macd_ind.macd_above(0) & macd_ind.macd_above(macd_ind.signal) # Short when MACD is below zero OR signal exits = macd_ind.macd_below(0) | macd_ind.macd_below(macd_ind.signal) # Build portfolio portfolio = vbt.Portfolio.from_signals( price.vbt.tile(len(fast_windows)), entries, exits, fees=0.001, freq='1D') # Draw all window combinations as a 3D volume fig = portfolio.total_return.vbt.volume( x_level='macd_fast_window', y_level='macd_slow_window', z_level='macd_signal_window', slider_level='range_start', template='plotly_dark', trace_kwargs=dict( colorscale='Viridis', colorbar=dict( title='Total return', tickformat='%' ) ) ) fig.show()
Analyze and engineer features for any time series data
Supercharge pandas and your favorite tools to run much faster
Test thousands of strategies, configurations, assets, and time ranges in one go
Test machine learning models
Build interactive charts/dashboards without leaving Jupyter
The current implementation has limitations though:
It's still experimental and fast evolving, thus API can change quickly.
Fast processing means more memory requirements. Above example created multiple DataFrames each taking 46MB of RAM (price, signals, cash, shares, equity, returns, etc). The issue can be mitigated by deleting at least some artifacts as soon as they are created and by disabling caching.
Usage requires intermediate knowledge of pandas and NumPy to understand what's going on. Numba can be learned faster because of it mimicking NumPy. I tried to make lots of small examples in the documentation to get the idea how everything is glued together.
The approach of merging vectorized and iterative code differs significantly from classic OOP approach of designing strategies, and will require you to rethink how strategies are formulated and implemented (which is kinda fun).
Finally, if you're looking for a pure backtesting solution - it's not. It's more of a data mining tool to get to know your market and approach better.
If it sounds cool enough, try it out! I would love if you'd give me some feedback and contribute to it at some point, as the codebase has grown very fast. Cheers.
Huge update to Cryptophyl - the SLP token exchange
Hi there, We've just released a big update to cryptophyl.com. The complete overhaul includes the addition of new features, a mobile-friendly trading interface and many design improvements. On top of this, we've just seen our biggest month yet of SLP token trading: almost $1M USD over April. What's new? Dark theme – We’ve introduced a dark theme which recolours the exchange interface so you can trade indoors without worrying about your eyes. The most requested feature we’ve had, you asked, and we delivered. Charts – We've added OHLC candle charts to the exchange so you can view price and volume data of all token trading since Cryptophyl launched last August. You can toggle between different periods and set the candle interval. Mobile friendly trading – We’ve revamped the mobile and desktop trading experience to a modern and responsive web application so you can trade comfortably on the move. Design improvements – We've refreshed the Cryptophyl logo, colours and typography, as well as redesigning the interface to maximise screen size, to provide a fresh user experience. Data availability – We've collected the most important trading and price information and have made it readily available from the dashboard – the core of the product. You can start trading, depositing and withdrawing with just a single click from here. API Keys – You can now generate API keys for programmatic trading directly on the platform. With lucrative arbitrage and market making opportunities existing in this nascent market, there is no better time than now to get started (view API documentation or create API Keys). Record trading volume In April we saw $900,000 USD worth of tokens traded over the month. The biggest markets were:
HonestCoin (USDH) - regulatory compliant 1:1 Backed USD stablecoin built on Bitcoin Cash = fast, cheap and stable border-less payments. We offer both BCH and BTC pairs. (Great explainer video why it's a nice alternative to USDT https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEiO3mwDwPQ)
Drop Token (DROP) - Cryptophyl's native exchange token which you can earn just for trading and gives you perks and features on the exchange.
Spice Token (SPICE) - a fun appreciation token used for tipping on social media, one of the first and most adopted SLP tokens.
What are SLP tokens? SLP is an emerging standard for issuing tokens on Bitcoin Cash. This means any token transactions are as scalable, fast and cheap as Bitcoin Cash . You can learn more about SLP tokens and how to quickly create your own token here: http://simpleledger.cash/ What's next for us? We're working to release Detoken - a trustless token exchange which allows you to buy, sell and trade tokens whilst always being in control of your private key! This means there is no centralised point of failure and you never have to trust us with your coins and tokens. The exchange will be open source. We're making it easy for wallets such as bitcoin.com to integrate Detoken into their product flow and we think it's going to be huge for the SLP token ecosystem! Thanks, Semyon, Founder and CEO, Cryptophyl.com
𝟭𝟯 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 & 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 ⚠️ *** Please be careful this weekend & coming week on possibilities of high spread of infections & careful of negative influences - avoid crowded areas with possibilities of violence **** This weekend’s Mars Conjunct Neptune squares North Node-Sun-Uranus- Moon of Trump’s chart. And Mars Neptune conjunction is happening on his 8th house cusp. I haven’t seen much being said on this though I might have missed reading it so I though I will mention. These aspects happening on solar return is very significant. Even one of these aspects would be. I am not surprised his security has been increased multiple notches. This energy is carried in the solar chart for the person. Bookmark this post! Transit Mars squares Sun can lead to cuts, abrasions, fevers. But with North Node and Uranus this can be amplified many fold. Neptune square leads to confusion and weakness of immunity and susceptibility of body to reactions. Deception, confusion, aggressive actions. 8th house is house of death & rebirth, power, our addictions & dark side but can lead to healing & regeneration after a crisis too - but it never comes without a heavy price. In a positive manifestation - this yields drive to achieve a higher goal - if applied for higher universal goals. But in lower manifestation this can be fairly destructive physically & financially. Mars Neptune conjunction standalone itself invites danger from violence, infections, influences. Hope for better manifestation but this to me would be big red flag in coming week. Mars Neptune will be conjunct at 21° Pisces - exact on 13 June but felt strongly in coming week as Neptune stands still square Mars of United States chart & Sun of Donald Trump. This links back to my eclipse note & warning on summer eclipses. https://www.facebook.com/595133057621535/posts/847026582432180/ In Trump’s chart that’s activating fixed star Bellatrix which has qualities of Mars & Mercury - quick decision making & quick tongue. Remember we are in Mercury retro shadow period - misguided tempers & words can be spoken. Mercury is in water sign & running at warp speed - things are said driven by sensitivity, emotions & protectionism. Mercury will go retrograde on 18th - I have listed all retrograde dates for you here - https://www.facebook.com/595133057621535/posts/887884295013075/ This fixed star rules lungs & chest cavity in human body. Conjunct Mars & Neptune it can drive us to creativity or fight for higher good using our voice & action. Arnold Schwarzenegger has Mars Conjunct Bellatrix - you get the picture - big action. But Neptune can really misguide these actions - all means justify the end. Worst with Neptune this can severely deteriorate the lungs & cause physical suffering in chest. This calls for low immunity in general but these dangers especially exist in my view in Trump’s chart. Plus there is high chance of misguided fight - person leading troops to war. Trump’s Sun falls on United States Mars in 7th - he has potential to drive the partnerships or rile up the partnerships - this is indications of a President who leads a war with partners or enemies. Coming to chart of United States - Mars Neptune conjunction of 13 June squares Mars of United States so you have to be very careful if you reside in the US in coming week from infections & any negative environments involving violence. This aspect has been in making last few days but it will intensify as Neptune now stands still about to go retrograde. There is always higher manifestation & human will. Additionally this is happening in mutable signs - mutable signs adapt, shift gears to make things work in the right way. It’s in Pisces - one thread ties all souls together. Higher manifestation drives people to use their sharp tongue & intellect to soldier people for a good cause - humanity & creativity blossoms. We are seeing people across the world do that and hope that is the positive manifestation we all direct our will & voice for. 𝗛𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 This aspect was repeated 6/7 Dec 2018 if you would like to see how this might personally impact you. Below were key global events around the time § US aircraft due confusion collided over Japan sea § Bomb threats were handed out asking for Bitcoin § Major Salmonella outbreak § Yellow vest movement § Unfortunate Christmas market shooting § Bill Barr was nominated US Attorney General I am sure I am missing a few but you can check personally those few days before & after 6/7 Dec 2018. It wasn’t exact same degree & aspects but you could get a few directional clues. Take care Love & more 💞
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Don Tapscott - Executive Chairman, The Blockchain Research Institute
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Ernesto Contreras Escalona - Head of Business Development, Dash Core Group
Eugene Mutai - CTO, Raise
Genping Liu - Partner, Vertex Ventures
Hany Rashwan - CEO, 21Shares AG
Harry Halpin - CEO, Nym Technologies
Hongfei Da - Founder, Neo
Igor Runets - CEO, BitRiver
İsmail Hakkı Polat - Cryptocurrency & Blockchain Lecturer, Istanbul Kadir Has University
Jamie Burke - CEO, Outlier Ventures
Jiho Kang - CEO, Binance.KR
John Izaguirre - Europe Ecosystem Lead, Ontology
John Khenneth Parungao - COO, SwipeWallet, Inc.
Jon Karas - President & Co-Founder, Akoin
Jorge Farias - CEO, Cryptobuyer
Joseph Hung - Director of Market Strategy, Klaytn
Joseph Lubin - CEO, ConsenSys
Juan Otero - CEO, Travala.com
Justin Sun - Founder, TRON & CEO, BitTorrent
Kristina Lucrezia Cornèr - Managing Editor & Head of Features, Cointelegraph
Ken Nakamura - CEO, GMO-Z.com Trust Company
Konstantin Goldstein - Principal Technical Evangelist, Microsoft
Kyle Samani - Managing Director, Multicoin Capital
Thamim Ahmed - Researcher, University College London
Tom Lee - Head of Research, Fundstrat Global Advisors
Tyler Spalding - CEO, Flexa
Veronica Wong - CEO, SafePal
Viktor Radchenko - Founder, Trust Wallet
Winpro Yan - Chief Editor, Mars Finance
Yele Bademosi - CEO, Bundle Africa
Zhuling Chen - COO, Aelf Blockchain
Stay tuned as speakers and more themes are announced in the coming weeks! For more details, read our blog posthereand visit our event websitehere. During the livestream, we will be holding special #BinanceTurns3activities for viewers and giving away limited-edition prizes, swag, and collectible NFTs at various points throughout the livestream. Availability is limited! Register today! Binance Awards 2020 Join Binance as we celebrate the standout innovators and businesses that have made sizable contributions, both to our community and to our blockchain ecosystem. Winners will be announced during our live event, and results will be published on our blog afterwards. Register on Eventbrite today and tune in to the “Off the Charts” Virtual Conference on July 14, 2020, from 9:00 AM to 7:00 PM (UTC). -------- Thank you to our partners for helping make this event possible!
𝟭𝟯 𝗝𝘂𝗻𝗲 & 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 ⚠️ This weekend’s Mars Conjunct Neptune squares North Node-Sun-Uranus- Moon of Trump’s chart. And Mars Neptune conjunction is happening on his 8th house cusp. I haven’t seen much being said on this though I might have missed reading it so I though I will mention. These aspects happening on solar return is very significant. Even one of these aspects would be. I am not surprised his security has been increased multiple notches. This energy is carried in the solar chart for the person. Bookmark this post! Transit Mars squares Sun can lead to cuts, abrasions, fevers. But with North Node and Uranus this can be amplified many fold. Neptune square leads to confusion and weakness of immunity and susceptibility of body to reactions. Deception, confusion, aggressive actions. 8th house is house of death & rebirth, power, our addictions & dark side but can lead to healing & regeneration after a crisis too - but it never comes without a heavy price. In a positive manifestation - this yields drive to achieve a higher goal - if applied for higher universal goals. But in lower manifestation this can be fairly destructive physically & financially. Mars Neptune conjunction standalone itself invites danger from violence, infections, influences. Hope for better manifestation but this to me would be big red flag in coming week. Mars Neptune will be conjunct at 21° Pisces - exact on 13 June but felt strongly in coming week as Neptune stands still square Mars of United States chart & Sun of Donald Trump. This links back to my eclipse note & warning on summer eclipses. https://www.facebook.com/595133057621535/posts/847026582432180/ In Trump’s chart that’s activating fixed star Bellatrix which has qualities of Mars & Mercury - quick decision making & quick tongue. Remember we are in Mercury retro shadow period - misguided tempers & words can be spoken. Mercury is in water sign & running at warp speed - things are said driven by sensitivity, emotions & protectionism. Mercury will go retrograde on 18th - I have listed all retrograde dates for you here - https://www.facebook.com/595133057621535/posts/887884295013075/ This fixed star rules lungs & chest cavity in human body. Conjunct Mars & Neptune it can drive us to creativity or fight for higher good using our voice & action. Arnold Schwarzenegger has Mars Conjunct Bellatrix - you get the picture - big action. But Neptune can really misguide these actions - all means justify the end. Worst with Neptune this can severely deteriorate the lungs & cause physical suffering in chest. This calls for low immunity in general but these dangers especially exist in my view in Trump’s chart. Plus there is high chance of misguided fight - person leading troops to war. Trump’s Sun falls on United States Mars in 7th - he has potential to drive the partnerships or rile up the partnerships - this is indications of a President who leads a war with partners or enemies. Coming to chart of United States - Mars Neptune conjunction of 13 June squares Mars of United States so you have to be very careful if you reside in the US in coming week from infections & any negative environments involving violence. This aspect has been in making last few days but it will intensify as Neptune now stands still about to go retrograde. There is always higher manifestation & human will. Additionally this is happening in mutable signs - mutable signs adapt, shift gears to make things work in the right way. It’s in Pisces - one thread ties all souls together. Higher manifestation drives people to use their sharp tongue & intellect to soldier people for a good cause - humanity & creativity blossoms. We are seeing people across the world do that and hope that is the positive manifestation we all direct our will & voice for. 𝗛𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 This aspect was repeated 6/7 Dec 2018 if you would like to see how this might personally impact you. Below were key global events around the time § US aircraft due confusion collided over Japan sea § Bomb threats were handed out asking for Bitcoin § Major Salmonella outbreak § Yellow vest movement § Unfortunate Christmas market shooting § Bill Barr was nominated US Attorney General I am sure I am missing a few but you can check personally those few days before & after 6/7 Dec 2018. It wasn’t exact same degree & aspects but you could get a few directional clues. Take care Love & more 💞
1)It is possible to change the code through a miner vote or a fork and change the total supply or anything. DASH did it : they reduced the total supply from 84M to 18.9M a few years ago. They could also increase it to 999 Trillions if they wanted to so that millions of DASH are mined every week. 2)You can also fork bitcoin anytime , start over from 0 and claim it's the real bitcoin. (BCH , BSV , BTG , LTC , BCD etc) 3)Why would you pay $10,000 for a digital collectible unit called BTC when you can use BCH or TRX or LTC .. you name it. They work just as fine and cost less. There is no rarity like in gold. 4)Think of any amount you hold in ethereum as a gift card to use smart contracts on the ETH blockchain. Ridiculous. You’d rather hold a wal mart gift card or even simply cash. 5)Private keys may be bruteforced as we speak. Quintillions entries a second. When they’ll have enough bitcoins under control , they could move them all at once instantly.(At least 45,000 ETH have been stolen this way for now through ethereum bandit)SHA 256 is too old , bitcoin is 10 years old , it is not secure enough , quantum computing could potentially break it. 6)And that’s if people don’t find a way to create an infinite amount of coins to sell on exchanges.. it happened with monero , stellar , bitcoin , zcash , zcoin , eos , etc.. proofs : “Bitcoin , Coindesk : “The Latest Bitcoin Bug Was So Bad, Developers Kept Its Full Details a Secret”an attacker could have actually used it to create new Bitcoin — above the 21 million hard-cap of coin creation — thereby inflating the supply and devaluing current bitcoins.” Stellar : “Stellar Inflation: Glitch Leads to 2.25 Billion Extra XLM Printed” Monero : “A bug in the Monero (XMR) wallet software that could enable fake deposits to exchanges has been recently brought to public attention through a Medium post” Zcoin : Forged coins were created, but not exceeding 1% of the circulating supply. We will release further details on exact numbers when Sigma is released. EOS : “Hackers Forge Billion EOS Coins to Steal Real Crypto From DEX “ Zcash : “Zcash Team Reveals It Fixed a Catastrophic Coin Counterfeiting Bug” etc.. 7)Segwit , and especially Lightning network is a very complex technology and it will inevitably have flaws , bugs , it will be exploited and people will lose money. That alone can cause bitcoin to drop very low levels. 8)Then miners may be losing millions so they will stop mining , blocks may be so slow , almost no transaction will come though , and bitcoin may not have enough time to reach the next difficulty adjustement. This is reffered to as a death spiral. Then every crypto even those with no mining involved may crash hard. 9)Many crypto wallets are unsafe and have already caused people to lose all their investment , including the infamous “parity wallet”. 10)It is NOT trustless. you have to trust the wallet you’re using is not just generating an address controlled by the developper , you have to trust the node the wallet connects to is an honest node , you have to trust a Rogue state or organization with enough computing power will not 51% attack the network. etc.. 11)Bitcoin is NOT deflationary. Bitcoins are created every blocks (roughly every 10 minutes) and you wil be dead by the time we reach the 21 million current hard cap. 12)Bitcoin price may artificially be inflated by Tether. 13)It’s an energy waste , an environmental catastrophy. 14)The only usecases are money laundering , tax evasion , gambling , buying on the dark net , evading sanctions and speculation. 15)Governments will ban it if it gets too big , and they have a big incentive to do so , not only for the obscure usecases but also because it threatens the stability of sovereign currencies. Trump could kill bitcoin with one tweet , force fiat exchanges to cease activity. 16)Most cryptos are scams , the rest are just crazy speculative casino investments. 17)It is pyramidal : early adopters intend to profit massively while last comers get crushed. That's not how money works. The overwhelming majority of crypto holders are buying it because they think they will be able to sell it to a higher price later. Money is supposed to be rather stable. That's why the best cryptocurrencies are USDT USDC etc.. 18)The very few stores accepting bitcoin always have the real price in the local currency , not in bitcoin. And prices like 0.00456329 BTC are ridiculous ! 19)About famous brokers listing bitcoin : they have to meet the demand in order to make money , it doesn't mean they approve it , some even short it (see interactive broker's CEO opinion on bitcoin) 20)People say cash is backed by nothing and losing value slowly , and yes it is very flawed , but there is a whole nation behind it , it's accepted everywhere , you can buy more things with it. 21)Everybody in crypto thinks that there will be a new bullrun and that then , they will sell. But because everybody thinks it will happen , it might not happen. The truth is past performance doesn’t indicate future performance and it is absolutely not guaranteed that there will ever be another bullrun. The markets are unpredictable. 22)Also BTC went from about $0.003 to the price it is today , so don’t think it’s cheap now. 23)There is no recourse if you’re scammed/hacked/made a mistake in the address etc. No chargebacks. But it might be possible to do a rollback (blockchain reorganization) to reverse some transactions. BSV did it. 24)In case of a financial crisis , the speculative assets would crash the most and bitcoin is far from being a non speculative safe heaven ; and governments might ban it to prevent fiat inflation to worsen. 25) Having to write down the private key somewhere or memorize it is a security flaw ! It’s insane to think a system like this will gain mass adoption. 26) The argument saying governments can not ban it because it is decentralized (like they banned drugs) doesn’t work for cryptos. First , drugs are much harder to find and much more expensive and unsafe because of the ban , and people are willing to take the risk because they like it. But if crypto is banned , value will drop too much , and if you can’t sell it for fiat without risking jail , goodluck to find a buyer. Fiat exchanges could close. Banks could terminate every crypto related bank account. And maybe then the mining death spiral would happen and kill all cryptos. 27) Crypto doesn’t exist. It’s like buying air. It’s just virtual collectibles generated by a code. Faguzzi, fugazzi, it’s a whazzie, it’s a whoozie.. it’s a.. fairy dust. It doesn’t exist. It’s never landed. It’s no matter, it’s not on the elemental chart. It… it’s not fucking real! 28) Most brilliant guys have come out and said Bitcoin was a scam or worthless. Including Bill Gates , Warren Buffet , The Wolf Of Wall Street… 29) Inflation is necessary for POW , BTC code will have to be changed to bypass the 21M cap or mining will die ! If BTC code is not changed to allow for miners to be paid reasonably , they will cease mining when the bitcoin block reward gets too low.Even monero understood it ,the code will have to be changed to allow for an infinite bitcoin supply (devaluating all current bitcoins) or the hash will decrease and the security of bitcoin will decrease dramatically and be 51% attacked 30) Don’t mix up blockchain and cryptos. Even blockchain is overrated. But when you hear this or that company is going blockchain , it doesn’t mean they support cryptocurrencies. 31) Craig Wright had a bitcoin mining company with Dave Kleinman (he died) and on january 1 2020 he claims he will be able to access the 1.1M BTC/BCH/BTG from the mining trust. He may or may not dump them on the market , he also said BTC had a fatal flaw and that by 2019 there will be no more BTC. 32) Hacks in cryptos are very common and usually massive. Billions of dollars in crypto have been stolen in the last 6 years. In may 2019 Binance was hacked and lost 7,000 BTC (and it’s far from being the biggest crypto hack). 33) Bitcoin was first. It's an ancient technology. Newer blockchains have privacy, smart contracts, distributed apps and more.Bitcoin is our future? Was the Model T the future of the automobile? (John Mc Afee) 34) IOTA investiguating stolen funds on mainnet. IOTA shuts down the whole network to deal with trinity wallet attack. 35) Compared to bitcoin other cryptos work just as fine and don't waste so much energy. 36 ) Everytime miners disagree on the updates it will create another version of bitcoin : problem of governance and legitimacy. 37) Cryptos are only legitimate if they act as a credit for a redeemable asset like USDT or gold backed coins. While the native language of the writter is not english , I think you get the point and it doesn't make it any less relevant.
I've heard that founder of MakerDAO is not strictly against KYC. I have a message to whole community and specifically to a founder of MakerDAO Rune Christensen. I will explain using concrete examples why having KYC in MakerDAO is a grave mistake and it will lead to MakerDAO fork. Many people in the first world never actually understand why financial privacy and financial inclusion is important. Even people (in the first world) who seemingly supportive of such ideas are not able to provide any concrete examples of why it's actually important. Unfortunately, I was born in a "wrong" country (Uzbekistan) and I experienced first hand what financial exclusion actually means. I know first hand that annoying feeling when you read polite, boilerplate rejection letter from financial institution based in first world. So I had to become practical libertarian. I'm going to give you concrete examples of financial discrimination against me. Then I'm going to explain fundamental reasons why it happens. And finally, I'm going to explain my vision for DAI. Back in 2005, I lived in Uzbekistan. I had an idea to invest in US stocks. I was very naive and I didn't know anything about investing, compliance, bank transfers, KYC etc. All I knew is nice long term charts of US stocks and what P/E means. I didn't contact any US brokerage but I checked information about account opening and how to transfer money there. I approached local bank in Uzbekistan and asked how to transfer money to Bank of New York. Banker's face was like - WOW, WTF?!?! They asked me to go to private room to talk with senior manager. Senior manager of local bank in Uzbekistan asked me why I wanted to transfer money to US. They told me that it's absolutely impossible to transfer money to US/EU and pretty much anywhere. I approached nearly every local bank in the town and they told me the same. In 2012, I already lived in Moscow and acquired Russian citizenship. I got back to my old idea - investing in US stocks. I called to many US brokerages and all of them politely rejected me. Usually when I called I asked them if I can open an account with them. They told me to hold on line. After long pause, I was able to speak with "senior" support who politely explain me that Russia in their list of restricted countries and they can't open an account for me. Finally, I was able to open an account with OptionsXpress. Next challenge was to convince local Russian bank to transfer money to US. Back then in 2012, I was able to get permission to do so. So you might say - is this happy end? Fast forwarding US brokerage story to 2017, OptionsXpress was acquired by Charles Schwab. I was notified that my OptionsXpress account will be migrated to Charles Schwab platform. In 2017, I already lived in the Netherlands (but still having Russian citizenship). I wasn't happy with my stupid job in the Netherlands. I called Charles Schwab and asked if I quit my job in the Netherlands and have to return to Russia, what will happen with my account. Schwab told me that they will restrict my account, so I can't do anything except closing my account. So even if I was long term customer of OptionsXpress, Charles Schwab is not fully okay with me. Going back to 2013, I still lived in Russia. I had another idea. What if I quit my job and build some SAAS platform (or whatever) and sell my stuff to US customers. So I need some website which accept US credit cards. I contacted my Russian bank (who previously allowed me to transfer money to OptionsXpress) about steps to make in order to accept US credit cards in Russia. I've been told explicitly in email that they won't allow me to accept US credit cards under any circumstances. Back then I still believed in "the free west". So I thought - no problem, I will just open bank account abroad and do all operations from my foreign account. I planned vacation in Hong Kong. And Hong Kong is freest economy in the world. Looks like it's right place to open bank account. I contacted HSBC Hong Kong via email. Their general support assured me that I can open bank account with them if I'm foreigner. I flew to Hong Kong for vacation and visited HSBC branch. Of course, they rejected me. But they recommended me to visit last floor in their HQ building, they told me that another HSBC branch specializes on opening bank accounts for foreigners. I went there and they said minimum amount to open bank account is 10 mil HKD (1.27 mil USD). Later I learned that it's called private banking. When I relocated to the Netherlands, I asked ABN Amro staff - what's happen with my bank account if I quit/lose my job in the Netherlands and have to return back to Russia. I've been told that I can't have my dutch bank account if I go back to Russia even if I already used their bank for 2+ years. I still had idea that I would like to quit my job and do something for myself. The problem is that I'm Russian citizen and I don't have any residency which is independent from my employment. So if I quit my job in the Netherlands, I have to return back to Russia. I wanted to see how I would get payments from US/EU customers. I found Stripe Atlas, it's so exciting, they help you to incorporate in US, and even help with banking, all process of receiving credit card payments is very smooth. But as usual in my case, there is a catch - Russia in their list of restricted countries. Speaking of centralized compliance-friendly (e.g. KYC) crypto exchanges. This year I live and work in Hong Kong. Earlier this year, I thought it would be nice to have an account at local crypto exchange in Hong Kong so I can quickly transfer money from my bank account in Hong Kong to crypto exchange using FPS (local payment system for fast bank transfers). What could go wrong? After all Hong Kong is freest economy in the world, right? I submitted KYC documents to crypto exchange called Weever including copy of my Hong Kong ID as they requested. They very quickly responded that they need copy of my passport as well. I submitted copy of my Russian passport. This time they got silent. After a few days, they sent me email saying that Russia is on the US Office of Foreign Assets Control sanction list, so they just require me to fill a form about source of the funds. I told them that the source of my funds is salary, my Hong Kong bank can confirm that along with my employment contract. They got very silent after I sent them a filled form. After a week of silence I asked them - when my account get approved? They said that their compliance office will review my application soon. And they got very silent again. I waited for two or three weeks. Then I asked them again. And I immediately got email with title - Rejection for Weever Account Opening. And text of email was:
We are sorry to inform you that Weever may not be able to accept your account opening application at this stage.
Exactly the same situation I had with one crypto exchange in Europe back in 2017. Luckily I have accounts at other crypto exchanges including Gemini, one of most compliance obsessed exchange in the world. Although I don't keep my money there because I can't trust them, who knows what might come into head of their compliance officer one sunny day. By the way, I'm living and working outside of Russia for quite a few years. The situation with crypto exchanges is much worse for those who still living in Russia. I give you a few other examples of financial discrimination is not related to troubles with my Russian citizenship. Back in 2018, I still lived in the Netherlands. I logged in into my brokerage account just to buy US ETFs as I always do - SPY and QQQ. I placed my order and it failed to fill. I thought it's just a technical problem with my brokerage account. After a few failed attempts to send buy orders for SPY and QQQ, I contacted their support. What they told me was shocking and completely unexpected. They said I'm not permitted to buy US ETFs anymore as EU resident because EU passed a law to protect retail investors. So as a EU resident I'm allowed to be exposed to more risk by buying individual US stocks but I'm not allowed to reduce my risk by buying SPY because ... EU wants to protect me. I felt final result of new law. By the way, on paper their law looks fine. And the final example. It's a known fact that US public market become less attractive in recent decades. Due to heavy regulatory burden companies prefer to go public very late. So if successful unicorn startup grows from its inception/genesis to late adoption, company's valuation would be 3-5 orders of orders of magnitude. For example, if valuation of successful company at inception is 1 Mil USD, then at its very latest stage it's valuation would be 10 Bil USD. So we have 10'000 times of growth. In the best case scenario, company would go public at 1 Bil USD 5-10 years before reaching its peak 10 Bil USD. So investors in private equity could enjoy 1000 fold growth and just leave for public only last 10 fold growth stretched in time. In the worst case scenario, company would go public at 10 Bil USD, i.e. at its historical peak. But there are well known platforms to buy shares of private companies, one of such platforms is Forge Global. You can buy shares of almost all blue chip startups. You can even invest in SpaceX! But as always, there is a catch - US government wants to protect not just US citizens but all people in the world (sounds ridiculous, right?). US law requires you to have 1 Mil USD net worth or 200'000 USD annual income if you want to buy shares of non-public company. So if you are high-net worth individual you can be called "accredited investor". Funny thing is that the law intends to protect US citizens but even if you are not US citizen and never even lived in US, this law is still applies to you in practice. So if you are "poor loser", platforms like Forge Global will reject you. So high-net worth individuals have access and opportunity to Bitcoin-style multi-magnitude growth every 5-10 years. Contrary to private equity markets, US public markets is low risk/low return type of market. If you have small amount of capital, it's just glorified way to protect yourself from inflation plus some little return on top. It's not bad, US public market is a still great way to store your wealth. But I'm deeply convinced that for small capital you must seek fundamentally different type of market - high risk/high return. It's just historical luck that Bitcoin/Ethereum/etc were available for general public from day one. But in reality, viral/exponential growth is happening quite often. It's just you don't have access to such type of markets due to regulatory reasons. I intentionally described these examples of financial discrimination in full details as I experienced them because I do feel that vast majority of people in the first world honestly think that current financial system works just fine and only criminals and terrorists are banned. In reality that's not true at all. 99.999% of innocent people are completely cut off from modern financial system in the name of fighting against money laundering. Here is a big picture why it's happening. There are rich countries (so called western world) and poor countries (so called third world). Financial wall is carefully built by two sides. Authoritarian leaders of poor countries almost always want full control over their population, they don't like market economy, and since market forces don't value their crappy legal system (because it works only for close friends of authoritarian leader) they must implement strict capital control. Otherwise, all capital will run away from their country because nobody really respects their crappy legal system. It only has value under heavy gun of government. Only friends of authoritarian leader can move their money out of country but not you. Leaders of rich countries want to protect their economy from "dirty money" coming from third world. Since citizens of poor countries never vote for leaders of rich countries nobody really cares if rich country just ban everyone from poor country. It's the most lazy way to fight against money laundering - simply ban everyone from certain country. Actually if you look deeper you will see that rich countries very rarely directly ban ordinary people from third world. Usually, there is no such law which doesn't allow me to open bank account somewhere in Europe as non-EU resident. What's really happens is that US/EU government implement very harsh penalties for financial institutions if anything ever goes wrong. So what's actually happens is that financial institutions (banks, brokerages etc) do de-risking. This is the most important word you must know about traditional financial system! So if you have wrong passport, financial institution (for example) bank from rich country just doesn't want to take any risks dealing with you even if you are willing to provide full documentation about your finances. It's well known fact that banks in Hong Kong, Europe, US like to unexpectedly shutdown accounts of thousands innocent businesses due to de-risking. So it's actually de-risking is the real reason why I was rejected so many times by financial institutions in the first world!!! It's de-risking actually responsible for banning 99.999% of innocent people. So governments of rich democratic countries formally have clean hands because they are not banning ordinary people from third world directly. All dirty job is done by financial institutions but governments are well aware of that, it's just more convenient way to discriminate. And nobody actually cares! Ordinary citizens in rich countries are never exposed to such problems and they really don't care about people in third world, after all they are not citizens of US/EU/UK/CH/CA/HK/SG/JP/AU/NZ. And now are you ready for the most hilarious part? If you are big corrupt bureaucrat from Russia you are actually welcome by the first world financial institutions! All Russian's junta keep their stolen money all across Europe and even in US. You might wonder how this is possible if the western financial system is so aggressive in de-risking. Here is a simple equation which financial institution should solve when they decide whether to open an account for you or not: Y - R = net profit Where: Y - how much profit they can make with you; R - how much regulatory risk they take while working with you; That's it! It's very simple equation. So if you are really big junta member from Russia you are actually welcome according to this equation. Banks have special name for serving (ultra) high-net worth individuals, it's called private banking. It's has nothing to do with the fact that bank is private. It's just fancy name for banking for rich. So what's usually happen in real world. Some Estonian or Danish bank got caught with large scale money laundering from Russia. European leaders are ashamed in front of their voters. They implement new super harsh law against money laundering to keep their voters happy. Voters are ordinary people, they don't care about details of new regulations. So banks get scared and abruptly shutdown ALL accounts of Russian customers. And European voters are happy. Modern money laundering laws are like shooting mouse in your house using bazooka! It's very efficient to kill mouse, right? Now imagine world without financial borders. It's hard to do so because we are all get so used to current status quo of traditional financial system. But with additional effort you can start asking questions - if Internet economy is so global and it doesn't really matter where HQ of startup is located, why they are all concentrated in just a few tiny places like Silicon Valley and ... well, that's mostly it if you count the biggest unicorns! Another question would be - why so many talented russian, indian, chinese programmers just go to the same places like San Francisco, London and make super rich companies like Amazon, Google, Facebook, Apple to get even richer? If all you need is laptop and access to internet, why you don't see any trade happening between first and third world? Well actually there is a trade between first and third world but it's not exactly what I want to see. Usually third world countries sell their natural resources through giant corporations to the first world. So it's possible to get access to the first world market from third world but this access usually granted only to big and established companies (and usually it means not innovative). Unicorns are created through massive parallel experiment. Every week bunch of new startups are created in Silicon Valley. Thousands and thousands startups are created in Silicon Valley with almost instant access to global market. Just by law of large numbers you have a very few of them who later become unicorns and dominate the world. But if you have wrong passport and you are located in "wrong" country where every attempt to access global market is very costly, then you most likely not to start innovative startup in the first place. In the best case scenario, you just create either local business or just local copy-paste startup (copied from the west) oriented on (relatively small) domestic market. Obviously in such setup it's predictable that places like Silicon Valley will have giant advantage and as a result all unicorns get concentrated in just a few tiny places. In the world without financial barriers there will be much smaller gap between rich and poor countries. With low barrier of entry, it won't be a game when winner takes all. Whole architecture of decentralized cryptocurrencies is intended to remove middle man and make transactions permissionless. Governments are inherently opposite to that, they are centralized and permissioned. Therefore, decentralized cryptocurrencies are fundamentally incompatible with traditional financial system which is full of middle mans and regulations (i.e. permissions). Real value of crypto are coming from third world, not the first world. People are buying crypto in rich countries just want to invest. Their financial system and their fiat money are more or less already working for them. So there is no immediate urgency to get rid of fiat money in the first world. So the first world citizens buying crypto on centralized KYCd exchanges are essentially making side bet on the success of crypto in third world. Real and natural environment of cryptocurrencies is actually dark OTC market in places like Venezuela and China. But cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have a big limitation to wide adoption in third world - high volatility. So the real target audience is oppressed (both by their own government and by first world governments) ordinary citizens of third world countries yet they are least who can afford to take burden of high volatility. Right now, Tether is a big thing for dark markets across the world (by the way, dark market doesn't automatically imply bad!). But Tether soon or later be smashed by US/EU regulators. The only real and working permissionless stable cryptocurrency (avoiding hyped word - stablecoin) is DAI. DAI is the currency for post-Tether world to lead dark OTC market around the world and subvert fiat currencies of oppressive third world governments. Once DAI become de-facto widespread currency in shadow economy in all of third world, then it will be accepted (after many huge push backs from governments) as a new reality. I'm talking about 10-20+ years time horizon. But if MakerDAO chooses the route of being compliance friendly then DAI will lose its real target audience (i.e. third world). I can not imagine US/EU calmly tolerate someone buying US stocks and using as a collateral to issue another security (i.e. DAI) which is going to be traded somewhere in Venezuela! You can not be compliance friendly and serve people in Venezuela. Facebook's Libra was stupidest thing I've seen. It's extremely stupid to ask permission from the first world regulators to serve third world and create borderless economy. Another stupid thing is to please third world governments as well. For example, Libra (if ever run) will not serve Indian, Chinese, Venezuelan people. Who is then going to use stupid Libra? Hipsters in Silicon Valley? Why? US dollars are good enough already.
MKR Holder DAI-gest: Week 17, 2020: Action Required: The State of the Peg
Action Required: The State of the Peg
MKR Holder DAI-gest: Week 17, 2020
Governance Recap April 23, 2020
![Imgur](https://i.imgur.com/Jg3loyp.gifv) MKR Holder DAI-gest is a weekly Maker governance recap that is written by the community for the community. The best source of Maker Community information is through active participation and engagement. This supplemental publication strives to present all relevant facts and remain free of editorial opinion (Big 3 takeaway excepted). The statements made herein are not the opinions or statements of the Maker Foundation. DAI-gest is Now Available on Amazon Alexa as a Skill. You can enable it at https://skills-store.amazon.com/deeplink/dp/B087NH82D1?deviceType=app&share&refSuffix=ss_copy for all of your Alexa compatible devices. Then say, "Alexa, Open Maker Governance Digest" and you'll hear the latest issue. Coming soon to Itunes. Subscribe to MKR Holder's DAI-gest on Substack - Free Corrections / Comments / Suggestions / Other: @adrianhacker-pdx in the Official Maker Forums or [email protected]
Big 3 Take-Aways for the Week:
Understanding the MIPS framework that is being proposed right now is essential. It is a lot of information to sort through, so take it in small pieces if that will help you to focus and retain the information. Here is a link to an indexed list of all the MIPS (outside the forum). It is the entire framework of an introductory governance framework and collateral on-boarding procedures. You will find the MIP number, title, and sentence summary with a link to the forum discussion. See below for two additional sub-proposals added to MIPS 0 through 12.
The state of the peg has caused concern within and without the MakerDAO community. Some of the larger Maker holders stepped forward and posted their concerns around the state of the peg directly in the Maker forum. This spurred a lot of momentum in the platform, discussed further in this issue.
Intention to implementation. The DAO is getting very busy, and thought needs to be given to determining the feasibility of proposals, getting buy-in, and recruiting the appropriate skill sets in the community. Timing is key. The DAO is in need of a project management framework that is effortless and easily integrated into the current systems.
Dispositioned Governance Agenda
LongForWisdom is proposed, second governance facilitator. He said "Yes!".
Wrapped BTC has been proposed for collateral on-boarding.
USDC Risk parameter adjustment and on-boarding additional stable coins such as PAX and TUSD.
On-boarding LINK as a new collateral type.
Self-sustaining DAO: MIPS 0 - 12 - Ratification timeline and two additional sub-proposals have been shared in the forum.
Urgent - State of the Peg - Getting DAI back on soft-peg to a Dollar after it has been trading high following black Thursday.
SCD shutdown going to Executive Vote on April 24, 2020, three-week delay to follow for a final shutdown date of May 12, 2020.
Zero bid auction post mortem data evaluation - Maker Man currently completing the data analytics from black Thursday. This part is moving behind the scenes. A report is forthcoming in the next several weeks.
Public relations consortium - Communication team to create consistent and representative communications on behalf of the DAO and to report meaningful ecosystem sentiment back to the governance community. The team has been having weekly meetings, a first report is due by the end of the month.
Governance vote cadence - the timing for which executive voting happened for certain parameters. This may be overridden by the MIPS governance cycle.
Compensating Zero Bid Vault Owners. The poll was affirmative to compensate vault holders. Currently waiting on data analytics from Maker Man before restarting in another thread.
DeFi Emergency shutdown consortium
Dark fix - "
Flip / Flop auction usability
Maker token authority
Precedent for on-chain polling. Signaling started to determine the governance community's feelings about having foundation member proposals require on-chain polling. The forum thread seems to have died.
GSM delay - raise the delay from 4 hours to 12 hours for enacting Executive Votes, as a safety precaution.- Ratified
MKR Debt Auctions - Completed successfully
Deep dive into collateral on-boarding - Presentation to community completed, see forum for the movement
Governance cycle: MIPS 3 Presented in G and R Call - Presentation completed, see forum for the movement
Since the Black Thursday event of March 12, 2020, DAI has consistently been trading above the one Dollar price soft-peg it is supposed to maintain. Sometimes grossly over peg by over ten cents. In recent weeks it has been slowly trending back to a Dollar but has not quite gotten there. Confidence has not yet fully returned regarding the recent market volatility. Also, people are holding on to stable coins due to market fears. This has caused a serious lack of DAI liquidity, creating high demand, and affecting the peg. Prices this last week ranged from one to two cents above peg. Paraficapital, a larger corporate Maker holder in the governance community posted their concerns in the forum and related the sentiment of worry in the ecosystem regarding DAI being off the peg. This brought about immediate discussion and action regarding monetary policy and collateral on-boarding. The most recent passed Executive Vote contains monetary policy to make minting DAI more lucrative from USDC. Also, some exciting new collateral types are being considered for use in the MakerDAO platform. More on that next...
WBTC as a new collateral type?
WBTC also is known as wrapped Bitcoin is currently being evaluated by the Maker governance community to be on-boarded as approved vault collateral. Wrapped Bitcoin is Bitcoin that is held by the WBTC DAO and then tokenized 1:1 on the Ethereum (ERC-20) blockchain. Bitcoin on the Ethereum blockchain you ask!? It's already here, you can trade it on the https://Oasis.app . Many players in the DeFi ecosystem are excited about this step. Bitcoin is the most popular and most valuable cryptocurrency. While there is a small amount of WBTC use on current DeFi platforms, it was stated that people have been waiting for Maker to adopt WBTC as a collateral type. It was also said that using WBTC as ERC-20 collateral is the primary use case for ERC-20 Bitcoin. Forum links are listed below for this subject.
Other Collateral Considerations
In addition to WBTC, LINK is being considered for on-boarding as approved vault collateral as well as additional stable coins such as PAX and TUSD. All of these collateral options are hoped to help bring back sufficient DAI liquidity and help return the DAI price peg to exactly one Dollar. Again, see below for the forum links regarding these new collateral types.
MIPS 0 - 12 Due for Initial Polling; if Passed Moving on to Executive Vote
MIPS 0 through 12 has been a high focus subject in the governance community for the last few weeks. These are the first documents that spell out a governance and collateral on-boarding framework for a self-sufficient DAO. This is the beginning of the two to three-year process of handing full control of MakerDAO to the governance community and dissolving the foundation. The very nice flow chart below shows the two possible scenarios for approval or rejection of these MIPS in the Timing Governance Poll. Forum links can be found below for further information. ![MIP Implementation Timeline](https://i.imgur.com/sny6rOf.png)
Single Collateral DAI shutdown is very close. An Executive Vote for shutting down SCD is supposed to be posted on or shortly after April 24, 2020. There will then be a 3-week delay for shutting down. This will give time for people to close out their vaults, and hopefully drain the migration contract. Stability fees are going to be set to zero to incentivize the closing of vaults. If you are still holding SAI as of the time it shuts down, you should be able to redeem your SAI for ETH via the migration portal at https://migrate.makerdao.com
Here is a guide from MakerDAO about becoming involved in Governance. The meeting is held every Thursday, 17:00 UTC. During the postmortem and corrective action phase of the recent crypto market prices and resulting fiasco there has been a daily call. This is expected to drop to two calls over the next week. Please check the forums for information related to ad-hoc governance and risk calls that may be happening. Governance and Risk Meeting Community Guide * Understand the issues that are discussed and governance themes that get explored to build a healthy, secure, Maker Platform. * Get info on how to connect by phone or webcam. * Explore meeting archives.
There Lies the Port – Year in Review and Monthly Portfolio Update – December 2019
There lies the port; the vessel puffs her sail: There gloom the dark, broad seas. - Tennyson, Ulysses Year in Review This year began with a review of my portfolio goals, designed to update the financial independence targets to reflect the median and mean average of annual full-time earnings. The review also introduced a number of personal financial independence benchmarks, such as meeting credit card expenses or an estimate of actual expenditure through assumed average portfolio earnings. In addition, this year introduced reporting progress on an 'All Assets' basis (taking into account superannuation holdings), as well as an immediately accessible portfolio basis. Destinations closing - The long day wanes These changes left no less than eight metrics to track and report on. At the beginning of 2019, I had met only two of these eight financial independence measures (Objective #1 and 'Credit card purchases' on an all assets basis). As 2019 closes, six of the eight measures have been met or exceeded, and by contrast only two remaining outstanding. These two measures remaining to be met are reaching Objective #2 and a portfolio total that would allow the funding of current expenses from the FI portfolio alone. For both, I close out the year within fairly clear sight of these unmet goals. Progress through the year is summarised below. Progress against FI measures through 2019 Measure Portfolio All Assets Objective #1 – $1 598 000 (or $67 000 pa) 83% →111% 116% → 152% Objective #2 – $1 980 000 (or $83 000 pa) 67% → 90% 93% →123% Credit card purchases - $73 000 pa 77% →102% 108% → 140% Total expenses - $89 000 pa 58% → 84% 81% →115% Every hour a bringer of new things This calendar year portfolio has experienced the largest expansion to date, significantly outstripping progress through 2017. The overall portfolio has grown around 35 per cent, with the equity component rising from around just over $900 000 to $1.28 million. This has reflected market growth and a focus on purchasing Australian equities through the year. These sizeable increases in the FI portfolio have meant that significant gaps to my targets at the start of the year have shrunk dramatically. As an example, a year ago when the year started, Objective #2 was in the far distance, with the portfolio around $660 000 away from the target. Currently, it sits within $200 000 of that ambitious goal - a gap which while significant, does not necessary seem unbridgeable given progress so far. Yet the progress has not been linear, or a smooth course across calm waters. Rather, it has been a year of broadly two different halves. A rapid increase in portfolio value through to June or July, followed by choppy waters and only grudging and halting progress. [Chart] The drivers for this overall performance have largely been Australian and global equities, as well as Bitcoin. Strong equity markets through the first half of the year helped pushed the portfolio equity holdings up by almost 30 per cent, as markets recovered from the volatility and falls of late 2018. From July, however, the movement has been more sideways, despite contributions and an ongoing reinvestment of past distributions. Markets have tested and retested highs with some regularity. Despite its generally uncorrelated profile of returns, Bitcoin actually exacerbated this dual character of the year. It doubled in value in the first half of the year, going from 4.5 per cent of the portfolio in January to 10.9 per cent in July. Since that time it has drifted downwards, increasing the sense of pushing against headwinds in the second half of the year. Time and fate - the record of contributions This year is the first year where all substantial portfolio contributions have been made through exchange traded funds. This process commenced from May last year, when I ceased regular contributions to Vanguard's Diversified High Growth retail fund that had been made on a fortnightly or monthly basis over seventeen years. Instead, I turned to Vanguard's Australian shares ETF (VAS), Betashares' Australian shares ETF (A200), and more recently Vanguard's International shares ETF (VGS). This decision was driven by reducing costs, and also the opportunity to move more rapidly to my desired allocation. Its impact can be seen below, which shows that contributions have been fairly evenly split between A200 and VAS, with some smaller contributions to VGS to seek to reach and maintain the current target of 30 per cent of the total portfolio being placed in international equities. [Chart] Through the arch of experience This record is seeking to explore and identify if it is possible for me to make the transition to financial independence. In that context, the achievements of 2019 that seem most important are:
Reaching financial independence on an 'All Assets' basis - This probably garnered much less self-reflection and attention than I might have expected, however, this is because my primary focus and target has so far been to achieve financial independence just with the portfolio immediately accessible in taxable accounts (i.e. excluding superannuation). Nonetheless all four of my benchmarks were met by the end of the year.
Passing Portfolio Objective #1 - My expectation at the beginning of this year was to reach this particular goal only at the end of 2020. Instead it has been reached more than 18 months earlier than this.
Arriving close to the target allocation - This required investment decisions in accordance with the asset allocation plan, amidst market volatility, doubts over the sustainability of equity market rises. Mechanistically applying new investments to meet the target allocation can be emotionally challenging, but ultimately protects us from costly emotional and short-term decision-making.
A substantial fall in the level of credit card expenditure - This year I have spent substantially less (around $10 000) than the annual average on my credit card over the past seven years. I don't really have an explanation for this, though perhaps carefully monitoring and reporting monthly trends compared to distributions has psychologically discouraged some wasteful spending.
This year has also seen continued pleasing growth in the readership of the blog. Over the past year readership and visitors have more than doubled, to levels that feel slightly difficult to comprehend for a blog focused on a single personal journey, and applying some finance theory and evidence to investment. Receiving over 100 000 views from more than 40 000 visitors since commencing is both humbling and a tremendous motivation to keep writing. Waiting on time and fate As with each year during this holiday break, I have been reviewing my investment policy and looking at possible new goals. I have also been updating and stress-testing my plans, assumptions and asset allocations. As previously, before finalising these in a new post in coming days, I want to fully understand the shape and level of fund and ETF distributions arising from the past six months. This means waiting until all December distributions are finalised or announced. I am looking forward to sharing these updated plans - including possibly new portfolio objectives - in the next week or so. You can’t go back and change the beginning, but you can start where you are and change the ending. - C.S. Lewis Monthly Portfolio Update - December 2019 This is my thirty-seventh portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goals. Portfolio goals My objectives have been to reach a portfolio of:
$1 598 000 by 31 December 2020. This should produce a passive income of about $67 000 (Objective #1) - Achieved
$1 980 000 by 31 July 2023, to produce a passive income equivalent to $83 000 (Objective #2)
Both of these are based on an expected average real return of 4.19 per cent, or a nominal return of 7.19 per cent, and are expressed in 2018 dollars. Portfolio summary Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $797 016 Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $45 124 Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $81 635 Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $108 591 Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $160 304 Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $33 337 Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $262 478 Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 886 Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $9 705 NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $7 584 Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $99 178 Secured physical gold – $16 035 Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $15 778 Bitcoin – $116 300 Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $17 476 Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 406 BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 425 Total portfolio value: $1 779 258 (-$14 495) Asset allocation Australian shares – 43.2% (1.8% under) Global shares – 23.3% Emerging markets shares – 2.4% International small companies – 3.2% Total international shares – 28.9% (1.1% under) Total shares – 72.1% (2.9% under) Total property securities – 0.2% (0.2% over) Australian bonds – 4.7% International bonds – 9.8% Total bonds – 14.6% (0.4% under) Gold – 6.5% Bitcoin – 6.5% Gold and alternatives – 13.0% (3.0% over) Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio. [Chart] Comments This month the value of the portfolio fell slightly - by around $14 000 in total - following a three month expansion. [Chart] Across the portfolio there was mostly a story of stability, excepting small falls in some Australian equities and bonds. The significant exception was as mentioned above a continued fall in Bitcoin, which has fallen $70 000 since July, marking a significant headwind for the portfolio. [Chart] This month contributions were evenly split between Vanguard Australian shares and global shares ETFs (VAS and VGS), to seek to maintain the target asset allocation split. With the slow withdrawal from Ratesetter as loans are repaid, the bond element of the portfolio continues to drift below the allocation, and it may need to be addressed in future months. Balancing the load This month has also seen the portfolio the closest it has ever been to the target asset allocation. That is, the level of variation between where the investment assets are allocated, and where there should be based on the plan, is the lowest it has ever been. This has been a long journey with many missteps in retrospect. These have included short periods in which nearly 30 per cent of assets were invested in bonds, and times in which cash made up to 15 per cent of the portfolio (at the commencement of a 10 year period of growth in equities). This journey is illustrated in the chart below. [Chart] A few features stand out in this chart. Firstly, a recent rise in share exposure, and contraction in bond allocations. A second feature is the gradual elimination of any cash forming part of the portfolio. Finally, Bitcoin makes a late appearance and enjoys a short flowering period in early 2018, to fade back to part of a generally more diversified and growth-orientated portfolio. This has occurred during a period of generally strong and consistent calendar year growth since 2007. This can be seen from the updated chart below (with dates from the commencement of this record in green). [Chart] Progress Progress against the objectives, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below. Measure Portfolio All Assets Objective #1 – $1 598 000 (or $67 000 pa) 111.3% 152.3% Objective #2 – $1 980 000 (or $83 000 pa) 89.9% 122.9% Credit card purchases - $73 000 pa 102.2% 139.8% Total expenses - $89 000 pa 83.8% 114.7% Summary The start of this new year marks three years of this record. As I review the progress of the month, year and record together what is striking is the gradual transition from directly controlling investing progress through individual decisions, to progress itself becoming a loose and nearly random variable. Part of what is happening in the near doubling of the portfolio is that market fluctuations take a greater role. But another part is distinctly psychological, and is well described in this Of Dollars and Data post, which analyses the concept of the gradual receding importances of some types of decisions, as overall wealth increases over a life journey. For these decisions, over time, there is a need to balance the concept of 'rational ignorance' (not expending attention on perfectly optimising and analysing what will have a marginal impact) with the risk of picking up wasteful habits through poor decisions. A more pervasive psychological challenge likely to be faced in coming weeks is buying at market highs. The year just passed has been a rare one of strong performance of both US bond and equities, and safer assets. Data such as this interactive analysis can help bring light to these decisions - showing that historically returns from periods of 'all time highs' are statistically indistinguishable from any other periods. Put simply, the uneasy feeling of investing as indexes hit their peaks is, at least on past data, unjustified in terms of the actual future returns that tend to eventuate. This kind of finding should serve as a reminder. Past choices and markets are closed to us, all we can do is start where we find ourselves and take the best action we can to shape the ending. The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
Greetings, this is dumnem, also known as Theorchero, but you can call me Theo. I'm an experienced Tarkov player and I'm writing this guide to try and assist new Tarkov players learn the game, because it has one hell of a learning curve. We'll be going over a lot of different aspects of this guide, and it is going to be huge. Feel free to digest this in parts. Additionally, this is a work in progress. I will write as much as I can in one Reddit post, but subsequent parts will be in additional comments. Google Docs Version (Note: Link is placeholder atm) Disclaimer: I haven't played Tarkov regularly in a couple months. It's possible there has been extensive changes that I have not kept up with. If there is anything I have gotten wrong or may have omitted, please let me know. This is Primarily directed towards Tarkov Novices. It hopefully includes everything you need to know to be able to go into a Raid equipped for success and to successfully extract with gear. Want to play with friends? Want to have fun and learn Tarkov? Check out my discord here.
Escape from Tarkov is a tactical, realistic, FPS with MMO elements developed by Battlestate Games. It is currently in closed Beta. The game features several maps in which your primary character, your PMC, goes into Raids in order to find and salvage loot and useful equipment to survive and thrive in Tarkov. Death is very punishing in Tarkov. If you die you lose everything you had on you when you die (with the exception of what's inside your Container and your melee weapon) including any equipment you brought with you or what you found inside the Raid. Enemies can be players (PMCs) or 'Scavs' (Scavengers) that are either controlled by AI or by players. Unlike many shooters, AI enemies in Tarkov are deadly - they can and will kill you on sight. It features beautiful and immersive environments, intricate and in-depth weapon modification system, a complex health system, attention to detail with loot placement, and options for combat. Do you want to play slow and stealthy, to avoid fights, or set up a deadly ambush on an unwary foe? Or do you prefer to raw combat, where only your quick wit, placements of shots, and tenaciousness determines who gets out alive? It's your Tarkov. You make the rules.
Tarkov Resources - Useful links
I take no credit or responsibility for any of the content in these links. To the best of my knowledge, these are updated consistently and are accurate, but user beware.
Absolutely fantastic resource. You can visit them here. It is a massive collection of everything that we players have been able to find. They contain trades, user-created maps, lists of ammo, parts, weapons, loot, etc. If it's in the game, it's on the Wiki, somewhere. I highly recommend opening the wiki page for the Map that you plan on raiding in. Factory Customs Woods Shoreline Interchange The Lab ('Labs')
Map Keys and You
Huge collection of all the keys in the game. These are also on the wiki, but this page has them all on one page, and tries to inform the user if the key is worth keeping or using. Check it out here. This section is open to revision. Mention me in a thread (or in the comments below) about a resource and I'll see about adding it here.
Courtesy of Veritas (Send me his reddit username?), It's located here. (Open in new tab.) Contains: Detailed information about: Ammunition, Health, Firearms, Body Armor, Helmets, Rigs & Backpacks, Labs & Quest keys.
Tarkov features several maps - ranging from wide, beautiful vistas to ruined factory districts, to an abandoned laboratory where illegal experiments were being conducted. It is important to learn the maps you intend to play. In order to keep your gear, you must 'extract' at one of your designated exfiltration points. Not all exfils will be active every game, and some are conditional.
To see what extracts are available to you, double tap 'O' to show raid time and your exfils. If it has a ???? it might not be open.
You can load Raids in an OFFLINE status, which allows you to explore the map or practice against AI without losing gear. You do not keep any EXP or gear you find in the OFFLINE Raid, though. To access OFFLINE Raids, head into a Raid normally until you see this screen. Simply check 'Enable OFFLINE mode for this Raid' and you're good to go! You even have a choice on whether or not to add AI. You can also control how many AI enemies spawn, fewer than normal or a great deal more! You can even make Scavs fight each other. (Framerates beware.)
Gate 3 Extract A small, fast-paced map that was primarily created for PvP. Scavs spawn in all the time. Very close quarters, shotguns and SMGs tend to dominate here. PMCs can only access one Exit (Gate 3) without the Factory Exit Key. Good place to go if you need PMC kills as action is pretty much guaranteed. It is recommend NOT to bring in a lot of gear to Factory until you are experienced.
Extract map A fairly large map that was recently expanded. Essentially, players spawn either on 'warehouse' or 'boiler (stacks)' side. If you see a large red warehouse near you (Customs Warehouse), then you spawned on the warehouse side. If you don't, you likely spawned near Boiler side. The location for most quests in the game. Finding geared players here is very easy, so if you are low level attempting to complete early quests (like The Bronze Pocketwatch) it's recommend to AFK in the raid for 20 mins or so, as most players will have moved out of spawns and hit the 'hot' areas already, so it's less likely to be contested, so you may grab your quest item(s) and proceed immediately to Exfil. Contains a Scav Boss, which is a group of scavs with above-average to high-tier gear that has a chance to spawn in Dorms or Gas Station.
Woods Map with Exfil A very large map that is mostly just a large forest, with the occasional bunker, and the Lumber Mill in the center. The Lumber Mill is the primary point of interest, as it contains a couple quest locations and is the primary location to farm Scavs, as Scavs killed on woods is the only known location to find the Arsenal Key, which is the rarest and most valuable key in the game at the moment. Since the map is so large and open, sniper rifles with scopes usually reign king here. You will see a lot of players with Mosin rifles as they are a cheap way to train the Sniper skill (for a quest later on) and are capable of killing geared players and scavs alike. Overall, not usually very populated. An early quest from Prapor sends you here to kill a number of Scavs. A good map to learn the game, as although the loot is not fantastic, you can get experience with how the game runs and operates while fighting AI and possibly getting lucky with a key find off a scav.
Shoreline Map, with Loot, Exfil, etc A very large map, notorious for its FPS hit. Generally speaking, one of the better maps for loot. The primary point of interest is the Resort, but scavs spawn there, and is primarily occupied by hatchlings (players only with hatchet, ie melee weapon) and geared players. Resort has great loot, but requires keys to access most of it. A great map to learn though from new players as the outskirts still contains plenty of loot and combat opportunities with AI scavs. You can hit Villa, Scav Island, Weather station, Docks, etc and come out with a backpack full of valuable gear fairly easily. Location of many quests, including a large quest chain where players are required to kill many, many, scavs on Shoreline.
Detailed map Great, great loot area, but very complex map. Doesn't run very well on old computers. Features a mostly-binary exfil system like Shoreline, but.. kinda worse. Exfil camping is fairly common on this map. Huge map with multiple floors and many many different stores. Communication with teammates is a challenge on this map, but the map is also fantastically detailed. This map features a lot of loot that depends on the kind of store you're in. It's a great place to farm rare barter materials which are valuable to sell on the Flea market or to use for quests. An early quest (from Ragman) sends you here to kill a large amount of Scavs. I'd recommend getting Ragman to level 2 and accepting his quest before going to Interchange, as getting this quest done can take a while as it is and you want all scav kills to count towards progress.
Here's a map. This is a very complex map, so I highly recommend you read the Wiki article and look at all the maps to get an idea of what it's like.
INSURANCE DOES NOT WORK ON THIS MAP.
If you purchase insurance and lose your items on this map, doesn't matter from whom, you will not get them back.
LABS IS NOT LIKE OTHER MAPS. READ THIS SECTION CAREFULLY.
Labs is by far the most lucrative map to play at the moment. You can easily earn several million roubles per hour by killing Raiders (Juiced-up scavs that are ONLY on Labs), looting their equipment, then running to one of the many, many extracts. Extract camping is hard to pull off and pretty much not viable on Labs.
DISCLAIMER: Labs, like much of Tarkov, is under constant development, so issues may be fixed or created without warning. Always check patch notes!
Raiders are the avatars of Death in Tarkov, clad in USEC and BEAR hats, high-end armor, and plenty of firepower to boot. Do not fight Raiders directly. They WILL kill you. Raiders are absolutely broken this patch, and are getting fixed next patch to help fix their exploits of both poor AI and how they're a little.. insane. At the moment, the only way to kill raiders is to camp a hallway, room, or door, and attract the scavs to you, headshotting them the moment they enter before they have a chance to lock onto you. Raiders can see you through and shoot you through surfaces you cannot. This means you have to be very careful when engaging them. They are also often equipped with very high-end ammo, meaning that most faceshields (even Killa helmets) can be useless vs a Scav who spawned with 'big boy' ammo, 7N39. They can shoot your head if it's even slightly visible. They can prone instantly, as they have no ping. If they drop without slumping over, get to cover immediately. Typically, strategies to farm Labs (barring rushing certain rooms for static loot) involve rushing a camp-spot and baiting raiders to your location and taking them out quickly, efficiently, and with no mercy. There are many locations to camp, and since there's so many exfiltrations, it's ultimately up to personal preference. Raiders often spawn with armor (often Troopers and Gen4s) a rig (Sniper or Ana Alpha rig, usually) and a variety helmets and weapons. Always check the ammo the raiders spawn with. If they spawn with ANYTHING other than PS (and 12 gauge) LOOT IT! You can right click their magazine and hit 'unload ammo' to get the ammo without having to grab the mags, which saves space. BS, BT, BP, 7N39, etc can be worth several hundred roubles a round on the market. They're extremely valuable. Additionally, Raiders spawn IFAKS, Morphine, and grenades (F-1 & Flashbangs (Zarya)) with regularity. They can also spawn with random consumables and large clumps of cash in their pockets as well. They can spawn several backpacks, most of them being rather large, if relatively uncommon. Additionally, Raiders can have American names, breach doors, and mumble as if they are a USEC PMC because some of the Raiders are actually USECs. You will learn with experience what the Scavs will or will not say.
Experience Farming on Labs
Labs is perhaps the best place to farm experience on the current patch. Killing a Raider with a headshot awards 1100 Experience. This does not include any looting, inspection (searching bodies), examine, streak, or other experience. Killing a large sequence of Raiders gives additional bonus experience in the form of Streak rewards, usually 100 bonus exp per additional kill. Surviving the raid multiplies all of these sources of experience by 1.5x
Changes coming to Labs
Disclaimer: I am not a BSG developer or employee. This is what I have seen on this subreddit and heard elsewhere. Some might be purely rumor, but other points are confirmed by Nikita. Labs is currently undergoing an overhaul. At the moment, you require consumable Keycards to enter Labs, which may be purchased from Therapist or bartered Mechanic in exchange for 1 Bitcoin starting at Loyalty Level II. They can also be found in drawers and jackets. Scavs can drop permanent keycards that replace most keys used in the previous iteration of labs. The full extent of the changes coming is not known. Remember, you can load a map in OFFLINE mode to practice against bots or to learn the map without fear of losing gear.
Tarkov's Health System
Tarkov Wiki Article Tarkov has a very advanced health system, and while it might seem overwhelming at first, you'll get the hang of it rather quickly. It features a very wide variety of effects and injury, including hydration, energy, blood pressure, blood loss, fractures, contusion, intoxication, exhaustion, tremors and more. Not all of the Health System is implemented yet. Expect changes! Your character (PMC, or otherwise) has a combined Health of 435. Each of his limbs have separate health. Taking damage to a limb that reduces it to 0 'blacks' that limb. Blacked limbs are a problem. They greatly impair the activities your PMC performs, and taking damage in a blacked limb amplifies the damage by a multiplier and spreads that damage among your other non-black limbs equally. You cannot heal a blacked limb. Notes:Bloodloss applies damage to the affected limb and can be spread like other damage to a blacked limb. Treat immediately. Also causes significant dehydration! Losing a limb applies additional effects. Fractures also apply these effects but not the damage amplification (Except for damage if running on fractured leg.) Dehydration is what happens when your Hydration level reaches 0. You can view your Hydration level in your gear page, at the bottom left. Becoming dehydrated is extremely bad. You take constant damage. Taking dehydration damage can kill you if you have a black chest or head. Head/Chest: Bullet damage resulting in losing your head or chest is instant death. Note: Bloodloss resulting in your Head/Chest being black does not result in death, but any damage to them beyond that point will! A back chest will causes you to cough (much like your stomach!) Painkillers: Prevents coughing that comes from your chest. Doesn't help otherwise. Stomach: Massively increased rate of dehydration and energy loss. You must find liquids or exit the Raid soon. Additionally, your PMC will cough sputter loudly, attracting attention. Painkillers: Significantly reduces the frequency and volume of the coughs. Arms: Makes activities like searching, reloading, etc, take additional time, as well as adding a sway, reducing accuracy. Arms have a .7x damage multiplier. Painkillers: Reduces sway, removes debuff Pain. Legs: Blacked legs cause your PMC to stumble and be unable to run. Blacked legs have a 1x damage multiplier. Painkillers: Allows you to walk at full speed and to run. WARNING: Running while your legs are blacked or fractured WILL DAMAGE YOU.
Tarkov features many health items - 'Aid' items, which can be used to restore your characters health and to fix ailments or injuries he receives as the result of combat or mishaps. The two most important health conditions to consider are bloodloss and fractures, which have both been covered above. Some food items may have ancillary effects, such as losing hydration. Since in the current patch the only ailments to worry about are bleeding and fractures, it changes which health items are most necessary. We'll go over them below.
Medical Items on Wiki AI-2 medkit The newb's medical kit. You receive several of these when you start Tarkov - they'll already be in your stash. Available from Level I Therapist, they are cheap and effective way of healing early in the game. They will not stop bloodloss. Because of this, you also need to bring bandages or a higher-grade medical kit. Affectionately called 'little cheeses' by the Tarkov community. Using it takes 2 seconds, and because of how cheap it is, it's often brought in by higher level players to supplement their healing without draining their main kit (which is capable of healing bloodloss or sometimes fractures). Due to its short use time, it's often very useful during combat as you can take cover and quickly recover damage taken to a vital limb. Bandages The newb's bloodloss solution. Available from Therapist at Level I. A better version, the Army Bandage is available at Level II, after a quest. Mostly obsolete after unlocking the Car Medical kit. Activating takes 4 seconds, and removes bloodloss to one limb. Splint The newb's solution to fractures. Cheap, takes five seconds to use, and takes up 1 slot. Not generally recommended to take because fractures effects can be greatly mitigated with the use of Painkillers. Available from Therapist at Level I, no quest needed. Car Medical Kit The newb's first real medical solution. Available LL1 as a barter (2 Duct Tape) and available for Roubles after completing Therapist's second quest. Has a larger health pool than AI-2's (220, vs AI-2's 100), and removes bloodloss. Takes up a 1x2 slot, so requires to be placed in a tactical rig in order to be used effectively. Cheap and fairly efficient, takes a standard 4 seconds to use. Rendered effectively obsolete when the Salewa is unlocked. Salewa Good medkit for use in mid and end-game. Contains 400 total health and can remove bloodloss. Relatively expensive at 13k roubles per kit, though. Same size as the Car medical kit, so requires a tactical rig to use effectively. Because Tarkov does not currently have effects like Toxication in the game at the moment, this kit is favored by most players who go into a raid with at least a moderate level of gear. Unlocked at Therapist Level II after completing a level 10 Prapor quest, Postman Pat Part II. IFAK Fantastic medical kit, and is the one preferred by most players. Features 300 health and the ability to remove bloodloss and a host of other negative effects that are not yet implemented into the game. It does not, however, remove fractures. Taking up only a single slot, it is favored by players in all stages of gear, and it is recommend to carry one in your Secure Container in case of emergencies. Is available at Therapist Level II for a barter (Sugar + Sodium), and may be purchased for Roubles at Level III after completing Healthcare Privacy, Part I. It is a fairly expensive kit, but due to its durability, its small size, and ability to remove bloodloss, it is a very common medical item used by players of all levels. Grizzly The 'big daddy' medical kit, boasting an impressive total health resource of 1800. It is also a very large kit, taking up 4 slots (2x2) - in order to be able to use this quickly, it would require specialized tactical rigs that feature a 2x2 slot. It removes all negative effects (some costing HP resource), including fractures. Used by highly-geared players who intend on staying in raids for an extended period of time, or by players with additional Secure Container space available in case of emergencies. It is available for barter at Therapist Level II, and purchase at Therapist Level 4.
Using any of these items results in your character being 'On Painkillers' which allows you to sprint on fractured and blacked legs, as well as reducing effects of fractures and blacked limbs, and removing the debuff Pain. Essentially, the only difference between most of these items are the speed of use, price, availability, and duration of the effect. Analgin Painkillers The holy grail of pain medication. With the recent changes, "Painkillers" now have 4 total uses, not 1. The total duration is now greater than Morphine and less risk of waste. Takes a short time to use, and is available from Therapist Level 1 for both barter and Roubles. Morphine Quick application of painkillers. Favored by some highly geared players as it has greater usability in combat then it's typical counterpart, Painkillers. Has a longer duration, but only one use. Is required for a fairly early Therapist (and a late Peacekeeper) Quest, so it is recommend to hoard 10 of them, then sell the rest unless you intend on using them. They are worth a good amount to Therapist and take up little space so they are a valuable loot item. Available from Therapist for Roubles at Level 4, after completing Healthcare Privacy, Part 3. Augmentin Basically a cheaper Morphine. One use, 260s. Not recommended over Painkillers due to its cost. No current barter for this item, so usually it's just a fairly expensive, small loot item to sell to Therapist when found. Ibuprofen Powerful painkiller. Lasts 600 seconds and has 12 uses. However, it is not recommended to use it as a Painkiller. It is very valuable because it cannot be purchased from Dealers, it must be found, and it is a barter component to late-game containers, the Keytool and THICC Items Case. Vaseline Powerful medical item. Cannot be purchased from dealers. Has 10 uses. Removes Pain. Golden Star Balm Fairly useful medical item. It can remove Pain and Contusion (not a big deal of a debuff, goes away on its own shortly) and provides a small bonus to hydration and energy. However, because Hydration is usually easy to restore (Liquids are easy to find as 'common' or 'trash' tier loot), and Energy at the moment can't run to 0 within current Raid timers, it is Recommended to just to sell to Therapist as a Loot item.
Medical Injectors are not covered here. Essentially, they are powerful but niche items with strong side effects. Most recommended use is to store them in your Secure Container and sell them either on the Flea Market or to Therapist for roubles.
To be able to Hotkey a medicine item, they must be in a tactical rig or your pockets.
Tarkov's Quest, Progression, and Experience Systems
Tarkov features a very immersive progression system where your main character (PMC) is going into raids to acquire loot - goods that can be sold for a profit to other players, to Dealers (NPC Merchants), or used to fulfill quest requirements in order to complete them and receive your rewards. Additionally, your main character will increase their prowess in a number of skills, which increases everything from how much they can run, increases the ease of which recoil can be controlled, and even how far you can throw grenades. These are referred to 'soft skills.' Additionally, your PMC is assigned a Level. You can increase your Level by earning Experience - which is rewarded by performing numerous tasks throughout the Raid, completing quests, examining new items, killing other players and Scavs, etc. Successfully extracting from a raid will increase the experience you earn from the raid via a multiplier. Increasing your PMC's level will allow you to complete additional quests, which increases your Reputation with certain Dealers (and may reduce your Reputation with others) allowing you access to better equipment to purchase. Additionally, completing quests will often reward you with large sums of currency and sometimes equipment, and certain quests unlock items for purchase from that dealer. A Dealer's arsenal of available weapons, ammo, mods, medication, containers, and etc to purchase by you is determined by their Loyalty Level - or LL, for short. Certain Dealers specialize in different kinds of equipment, and they will pay different rates or straight up not buy particular items. In a future release, eventually Dealers will offer discounts to the player based off their Loyalty Level. Article on Dealers
Increasing Loyalty Level
Increasing your Trader's loyalty level is extremely important to your progression and overall success in Tarkov. Being able to purchase better Ammo and Equipment is essential to being able to fight other players and secure their loot for your own. Owning Prepare for Escape and Edge of Darkness (EoD) editions of Escape from Tarkov will increase your starting Reputations with Traders. It is unclear if this change will stay after the game's full release. Typically though, you need three things to increase your Trader's level.
This is accomplished via quests. Completing a quest will reward you with an increase in the quest givers' reputation, sometimes an increase in another trader's reputation, and sometimes will reduce the Reputation of another trader. Not all Traders need a certain level of Reputation to increase their loyalty Level to II. Peacekeeper and Ragman, for example, just need you to spend a certain amount of money with them.
Character Level and Experience Gain
The primary gate behind your trade level (and thus your overall economy and gear leverage) is your Character Level. You increase this by gaining Experience. The easiest way to gain experience is to Loot high value areas, fight players, and kill scavs while completing quests. Generally speaking, your level will advance as you play the game at a moderate pace. One way to farm experience though is to avoid looting all-together and just focus on killing a large number of scavs from a safe distance, after learning where they tend to spawn on any given map. This patch however, labs is fantastic for experience gain. (See above.) Another strategy (albeit one that takes longer) is to loot everything, then drop what you don't want. You gain experience for finding items and picking them up, so picking them up to drop them is technically the best way to gain the most exp per kill. You can receive additional bonuses to Experience earned. Successfully extracting will increase your experience by a multiplier, typically 1.5x the experience gained during the raid, escaping also rewards a 300 exp Escape bonus which is added to your total before the multiplier is applied. You can also receive experience bonuses for Exploration, so visiting different parts of the map will reward you with sums of experience, usually 100 to 300 or so. Killing multiple enemies in a row will reward you with Streaks, whose rewards increase as you get more kills. Getting a kill with a Headshot also significantly improves experience gain from kills. You also receive a (very small) bonus when you survive consecutive raids. Note: Completing a Raid too early (via extraction) will cause you to receive a Run-Through status, which reduces experience earned in that raid by 50%. Most Quests require you to be a certain level to unlock, and upon completion rewards you with a lot of exp and usually the ability to purchase specific equipment.
This is pretty self-explanatory. As mentioned above, Peacekeeper and Ragman can be increased easily just be selling and buying from them. If you need to artifically inflate the amount spent, a good idea is to purchase a large amount of cheap items from them and sell them back to the Trader. You still take a significant loss, usually around 50-60% per purchase, but since the money spent counts both items sold to the vendor and purchases, you get about 140-150% credit per item at about half the cost.
Not all dealers pay the same for certain items. It is important to note that a lot of this is my personal experience, and prices can fluctuate as the Developers may change them for any reason. Use your own common sense and check various dealers before selling particularly lucrative items.
Sells AKs, Magazines, many different Ammo types, Grenades, and weapon modifications. I don't tend to sell to him very often, as he doesn't pay the highest for any items that I have personally seen and because you tend to buy most Ammo and mags from him it's not a particular issue to level him up with money spent.
Sells medical supplies, food and drink, and storage cases, which are items that effectively increase the size of your stash because they have more space inside than they take up. Most storage items are restricted to certain item types. Pays most for items like Keys, Statues, Rolers, Bitcoin, etc. Many of these items should be sold on the market instead of to her, but often times it's not worth the hassle.
Pays least for items, sells items for more than other Dealers. Items other players have sold will appear here. Only sell items to Fence that other dealers will not take! Basically a placeholder for an expanded Market.
Sells various weapons, mods, ammo, Euros, and containers. Pays most for items like Armor, backpacks, headgear, facemasks, flashlights, sights, etc. It is important to note, that Skier will not buy Weapons or most Mods. That means for things like flashlights, you have to take the flashlights/sights off the mount or rail in order for him to buy them, but he pays the best.
Deals entirely in Western equipment, UN armor, helmets, etc. Will buy most items, but will pay USD for them. Deals entirely in USD. One good way to get his money spent requirement is just to buy USD, which is used for a later quest from Skier, which unlocks his quest chain. He has a lot of good deals, experiment for yourself. At the moment his MP5 for 10 'bars' knives (scav knives) is an exceptionally good deal and easy to accomplish for new players.
Sells mostly completed weapons with various modifications and unique names, and mods. Sells magazines and some ammo. Offers containers as you progress. His quests are easy to complete, but often are money dumps in exchange for large sums of EXP more than anything else. Pays the most for modifications (except for sights and suppressors) and stripped guns.
Sells backpacks, armor, tactical vests, and helmets mostly. Offers aesthetic clothing. Can obtain LL2 by just purchasing from him, does not require reputation. In fact, his first quest tasks you with that very objective. As far as I can see, he does not pay the most for any items in particular. But he is a very useful merchant once you have him at level 2. He will sell Scav Backpacks, which are an extremely efficient backpack to use as it's fairly large but very cheap.
Rule of Thumb for selling items at most value
Weapons: Strip the weapon! Take apart ALL pieces of it (including gas tubes, separating flashlights from ring mounts, etc), sell what you can to Skier. For the rest, sell to Mechanic. Keys, Food, Medical Items, Statues, Bitcoin, Rolers, etc: Therapist or the Market. For items like this, ALWAYS check the Market first! A lot of these kinds of items are in valuable trades or are required for quests; this means that other players are often willing to pay more for them, above trader prices.
Continued below in a comment, due to character limit.
December 17th 2017 I almost had a nervous breakdown that day. I woke up and saw the price of Bitcoin on the news at a little over 20k. In 2010 I made a huge mistake. I had $40,000 saved up and was looking at investments. I was thinking of throwing half of it into this new tech called Bitcoin and just let it sit. My father talked me out of it. Said there were more important things to invest in than some thing no one's ever heard of. Called me crazy for considering it. But I had a feeling. I didn't trust my gut. And I didn't look back until that day. At the time I could have bought 20,000 Bitcoins for $1 each. Sitting in my car, broke, with less than $100 to my name, realizing I had I lost 400 million dollars because I didn't trust my instincts. That was the last time I let anyone tell me I was crazy. I decided to go back to basics and further my education. I had learned about nootropics. Research chemicals that promised to give me boosted brain power for studying. I don't know if it was just the fact that I was depressed and suicidal but I was at a point in my life where I just didn't even care if I lived or died. But I figured if this stuff could give me an added boost, well I have nothing else to live for. So why the hell not. I had done my research and decided to try something called Modafinil. Which worked well to keep me focused on my studies but didn't actually add any actual brain power. The thing about Modafinil is that it allowed me the ability to not get bored. What ever I focused on, for hours, sometimes days if I redosed, constant focus. And that focus added up over time adds to increased knowledge. But it didn't by itself give me any extra boost in comprehension. A few months later I wanted something more. Something to help me actually understand the concepts I was studying. Not just make me brute force my way into understanding, but to actually open up pipe lines in my brain to allow more data to flow into my perception. And it wasn't long before I found what I was looking for. There's so many different types of nootropics and they affect people differently. So I experimented and finally found a mix that worked for me. A super mix that turned me into a learning machine. What ever I set my focus on, I instantly comprehended. I learned how to program in Python. After a while I started literally dreaming in code. I discovered machine learning. And Artificial Intelligence. I was fascinated by the concept. But also terrified. It might have been the drugs talking but I had a feeling deep down this was going to be the end of humanity as we knew it. Once it got to a certain point, we would be destroyed. And I had to come up with a plan to stop it. But how? How can someone possibly stop an all knowing super computer that thinks and acts on it's own accord? I had to come up with something. I began studying quantum physics and the nature of reality. I'll admit I went into some pretty dark places on these drugs. Some times I scared myself because reality stopped being reality. It sometimes turned into this weird magnetic vortex of information that I was just a part of. And the first few times it was really scary but after a while I began to make friends with the abyss. And it began to open it's secrets to me. April 24th 2020 I had launched my IPO after years of studying and hard work, I built a cyber security company. On the surface it was just another cyber security company with better bells and whistles. A new proprietary type of encryption. An always on monitoring software for large corporations. It had all the features and half the price of the competitors. Nobody knew about what I was really building. If they did, they would have called me crazy. And I vowed never to let anyone have that opportunity. No, they won't even possibly comprehend my plan. And they won't know they need it until it's too late. Better off I do this alone. Besides that, I couldn't even trust anyone with it if I wanted to. What I had discovered was something so powerful, nothing could stop it. Not even a super quantum intelligent being made of silicone. When I had my nervous breakdown a few years ago, I began studying the stock market and crypto. I wanted to understand how people made money off of this without having to buy and invest. I wanted to understand the nature of trading. It was then that I had found something called technical analysis. A trick day traders use to predict the stock market. After learning the basics, I had tried doing it myself and somehow intuitively I was looking at it like a puzzle. I was solving the charts on my iPhone and my finger. Drawing the next days chart and seeing how close I could get. It became an obsession. When I started drawing the next day's chart with 100% accuracy, that's when it had occurred to me that maybe the market is fixed. For a good month, I had believed all the markets were running on an algorithm that was already predetermined. What was this? How was this even possible? Either scenario was just as terrifying to me. Either A) I stumbled on a conspiracy so large it could destroy the entire economy if people found out about it. Or B) I became Nostradamus 2.0 and somehow am able to predict the future by drawing squiggles on my iPhone. I had to lay off the drugs for a while. I had to see if I could still do this sober. Short answer, yes. But not as accurate. Once the initial shock wore off, I knew I had to continue. And I couldn't do it sober. Not 100%. Then it hit me. What if it's not.. just the stock market? But everything? What if this is how everything works? Everything you could predict? Jokingly, I tested it on weather patterns because that was the only other thing that came to mind at the time. So I picked some random weather reports, plotted them on a graph and started drawing. Then I held the next day's weather report next to it. I was looking at the graph in shock. It worked. That creeped me out. For a while I was obsessed with trying to find something it didn't work on. Coin flips. Heart beat rhythms. Earthquake locations. Pick a number between 1 and 1000. Even locations and distances of similar objects in my own house. This thing I discovered could accurately predict it all. And I had no way to explain it other than "I draw things on a graph and I use my finger to predict where it's gonna go". I ordered more research chemicals and decided to push on. Even though there were side effects I knew I had to keep going. I've been trying to crack it ever since. Trying to put this into a code I could use. It hardly seemed efficient drawing everything by hand. I knew I could use it to save lives one day if I actually turned it into a usable product. And I knew one day it would come in handy in a war.
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