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What r/fatFIRE can learn from the book, Psychology of Money
My favorite author, Morgan Housel, released his new book, The Psychology of Money, last week. In the book, Housel discussed many interesting psychological phenomenon, through the lens of finance. As I flipped through the pages, I started to realize so much of what's happening in fatFIRE are examples of what's discussed in the book. No One's Crazy The book begins with how your personal experiences with money make up maybe 0.000000001% of what's happened in the world, but maybe 80% of how you think the world works. For example, if you were born in 1970, the S&P 500 increased almost 10-fold, adjusted for inflation, during your teens and 20s. That's an amazing return. If you were born in 1950, the market went literally nowhere in your teens and 20s adjusted for inflation. Two groups of people, separated by chance of their birth year, go through life with a completely different view on how the stock market works. Takeaways forfatFIRE: When you read other posts and comments about what stocks to buy, what startups to join, what's the economy going to be like, what's the best asset allocation, etc., remember that is just a single person's point of view. That person may be from a different generation, earns different incomes, upholds different values, keeps different jobs, and has different degrees of luck. And remember, don't be mean to others. A view about money that one group of people thinks is outrageous can make perfect sense to another. Luck & Risk The next chapter discusses the big role luck and risk plays in someone's life. Luck and risk are two sides of the same coin. Examples from the book: Countless fortunes (and mistakes) owe their outcomes to leverage. The best (and worst) managers drive their employees as hard as they can. "The customers are always right" and "customers don't know what they want" are both accepted business wisdom. The line between "inspiringly bold" and "foolishly reckless" can be a millimeter thick and only visible with hindsight. Risk and luck are doppelgängers. Takeaways forfatFIRE: Be careful who you praise and admire. That commenter who joined a unicorn at Series A may look like a genius on the outside, but they may just be lucky and cannot repeat it again. Be careful who you look down upon and wish to avoid becoming. That poster who joined WeWork may look like a fool, but they made the best decision based on the information they had at a time. They took a risk and got unlucky. Therefore, focus less on specific individuals and case studies and more on broad patterns. Furthermore, when things are going extremely well, realize it's not as good as you think -- like the stock market right now. On the other hand, we should forgive ourselves and leave room for understanding when judging failures -- like the stock market in March. Never Enough The hardest financial skill is getting the goalpost to stop moving. It gets dangerous when the taste of having more -- more money, more power, more prestige -- increases ambition faster than satisfaction. Social comparison is the problem here. A rookie baseball players who earns $500k a year envies Mike Trout who has a 12-year, $430 million contract envies a hedge fund manager who makes $340 million a year envies Warren Buffett who had a $3.5 billion increase in fortune in 2018. There are many things never worth risking, no matter the potential gain. Reputation is invaluable. Freedom and independence are invaluable. Friends and family are invaluable. Being loved by those who you want to love you is invaluable. Happiness is invaluable. And your best shot at keeping these things is knowing when it's time to stop taking risks that might harm them. Knowing when you have enough. Takeaways forfatFIRE: When you make a big gain, it's totally okay to take profit, as long as you keep your ambition down and acknowledge the possibility that it may go higher. If that happens, no need to play the would've should've could've game, because it very well might've gone the other way. When you see someone who got 20x return on Shopify or bet big into Ethereum in 2016, remember they may envy the pre-IPO employees at Shopify or the genius who held Bitcoin since 2010. At the end of the day, do not risk more than what's comfortable in your life for the sake of making huge amount of money, because even if you do make it, you may not find it worth it. Tails, You Win Skipping a few chapters to talk about the prominence of tail events. At the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting in 2013 Warren Buffet said he's owned 400 to 500 stocks during his life and made most of his money on 10 of them. Charlie Munger followed up: "If you remove just a few of Berkshire's top investments, its long-term track record is pretty average." In 2018, Amazon drove 6% of the S&P 500's returns. And Amazon's growth is almost entirely due to Prime and Amazon Web Services, which itself are tail events in a company that has experimented with hundreds of products, from the Fire Phone to travel agencies. Apple was responsible for almost 7% of the index's returns in 2018. And it is driven overwhelmingly by the iPhone, which in the world of tech products is as tail--y as tails get. And who's working at these companies? Google's hiring acceptance rate if 0.2%. Facebook's is 0.1%. Apple's is about 2%. So the people working on these tail projects that drive tail returns have tail careers. Takeaways forfatFIRE: When we pay special attention to a role model's successes we overlook that their gains came from a small percent of their actions. That makes our own failures, losses, and setbacks feel like we're doing something wrong. When you accept that tails drive everything is business, investing and finance you will realize that it's normal for lots of things to go wrong, break, fail and fall. If you are a good stock picker you'll be right maybe half the time. If you're a good business leader maybe half of your product and strategy ideas will work. If you're a good investor most years will be just OK, and plenty will be bad. If you're a good worker you'll find the right company in the right field after several attempts and trials. And that's if you're good. Freedom The highest form of wealth is the ability to wake up every morning and say "I can do whatever I want today." The ability to do what you want, when you want, with who you want, for as long as you want, is priceless. It is the highest dividend money pays. Research has shown having a strong sense of controlling one's life is a more dependable predictor of positive feelings of wellbeing than any of the objective conditions of life we have considered. People like to feel like they're in control -- in the drivers' seat. When we try to get them to do something, they feel disempowered. Rather than feeling like they made the choice, they feel like we made it for them. So they say no or do something else, even when they might have originally been happy to go along. Takeaways forfatFIRE: Most of you probably are working thought-based and decision job, your tool is your head, which never leaves you. You might be thinking about your project during your commute, as you're making dinner, while you put your kids to sleep, and when you wake up stressed at three in the morning. You might be on the clock for fewer hours than you would in 1050. But it feels like you're working 24/7. If this feels like you, and you do not like it, it is totally fine to switch to a job that pays less but gives you more freedom and independence, because freedom and independence are what FatFire is all about. --- I'm only half way into the book, but I can tell this will be one of the best finance book of 2020. If you guys find this useful, happy to come back next week with more insights once I've gotten to the end. I like talking about these things on Twitter too. Edit: here's part 2 and here's a Twitter thread of the best snippets
Blockchain Use Cases: Cryptocurrency Is Not All That Blockchain Is For
Tosay that the blockchain technology is one of the most outstanding innovative developments of this century is to say nothing. Associations with cryptocurrency, mainly with BTC, arise automatically when talking about blockchain use cases. But this concept of technology quickly becomes obsolete. More and more people see that the decentralization and transparency that accompany it have every chance to turn many industries upside down. In this article, we will look at the different blockchain benefits.
Unexpectedly, right? But, yes, this is the industry that has been using blockchain successfully for several years already! But the fact is that a lot of large Walmart-like retailers are joining forces with IBM to integrate the blockchain into their food management system. What is the purpose? One of the most important questions we should ask when eating food is: “What is its source?”. On October 6, 2006, many US states suffered a massive outbreak of E. coli. The source? Spinach! Source: https://princebalto.fandom.com/wiki/Popeye About 199 people were infected, 22 of them are children under 5 years old. As a result, 3 people died; one of them was a child of 2 years. One supplier. One farm. One lot. So, what happens when the blockchain is used to keep all food data reporting? Recall that the data in the blockchain is available to everyone; there is no centralized power controlling them. According to Frank Yiannas, the advantages of transparent management of the food products system are diverse: Strongly increases food safety. Guarantees the availability of more fresh food, because no one will risk sending stale food to an open system. Reduces the amount of food waste, because absolutely all food products are recorded. Eliminates fraud in the food industry because the system is publicly available. Stimulates a responsible attitude among food producers, because they know that their machinations will not go unpunished.
I believe, if there is no voting, then the concept of “democracy” doesn’t even exist. Countries around the world have used paper bulletins for a long time. However simple the concept may be, many problems can arise — human factor is the first. To fight against them, developed countries as Estonia applied the digital voting system. However, several possible problems were identified as well: The user’s computer may be infected with malicious code that reads every single vote and changes the vote in favor of another candidate. An attacker can directly infect servers with the help of malicious code on the DVD for installing servers and transferring votes. As long as the Estonian Information Systems Authority criticizes and fights against these problems, the fact remains that a centralized server that monitors voting can be exposed to numerous attacks and hacks. So, there are companies such as “Follow My Vote” that use blockchain benefits in full to bring voting to the 21st-century level. Each potential voter can safely log in using a webcam and a state-issued ID. You’re welcome to read more about the project and its technical side: asymmetric cryptography and 2 types of keys — followmyvote.com. A recent example is the first municipal elections on the blockchain held in West Virginia, USA. It was possible to vote from anywhere without any absentee ballots. The authorities also considered the use of technology during the big congressional elections. In March 2018, with the support of the blockchain company, the presidential elections in Sierra Leone also took place. The head of the company involved in the counting of votes hurried to please his Telegram subscribers that his specialists turned out to be more agile and published the results two hours before the local CEC.
Taxes, Public Services, and Document Flow
Transparency and immutability again come handy what expands blockchain use cases. The public sector is a complex and inert mechanism while remaining a centralized system. From the development of this system depends on the effectiveness of public administration as such, uniform coverage of public services needs of the population and entrepreneurs. The main benefits of technology implementation are expected to reduce operating costs. reduction of settlement time risk reduction increase in the possibility of obtaining additional income. Estonia, which is the leader in the implementation of e-government services, together with the blockchain-startup Guardtime, is introducing the creation of a single database of medical books for the population, which will be available for the exchange of information to clinics, as well as to insurance companies. In Ghana, in early 2016, Bitland project received official permission from the Ghanaian government to compile a land registry based on the Bitshares blockchain and released CADASTRAL, basic tokens. With their help, it will be possible to register land rights, resolve disputed land tenure issues, sell and buy land. The Florida State Taxation Authority announced a partnership with BitPay processing service to start accepting taxes and fees for property, driver’s licenses, identification cards, car plates, and other documents in Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash. India has studied the blockchain technology as a possible solution to its problems with the registration of real estate. In 2013, New Delhi alone reported 181 registered cases of real estate fraud, Mumbai is close to this figure with its 173 cases. To combat this problem, the governments of the states of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana entered into a partnership with the Swedish startup ChromaWay to transfer the registration of real estate to the blockchain. The system will have a back-end on the blockchain and a front-end in a web application.
Finances and Business
The use of technology in banking operations is illustrated by a transactionconducted by HSBC and the Dutch ING Bank. To deliver the goods from Argentina to Malaysia, they issued a letter of credit through the blockchain-platform R3 Corda and completely avoided any paper documents. Just think for a second, two large banks preferred to use blockchain to conduct a transaction! Unbelievable! Instant network updates is a virtue that will make financial transactions faster, easier, and more reliable. Of course, there is no business aside. Such a giant as Microsoft has let the blockchain enter its corporate networks. Having replenished your account, you can now buy software, movies, games, and applications for Xbox for BTC. Another pillar of commerce — the online platform for retailers and online stores Shopify — has added bitcoin payments to its functionality. Thousands of platform-using stores are already accepting them, using speed and, again, a low transaction fee. Fundraising. If ICOs are already a relic of the past, the blockchain industry makes a step ahead to introduce a new form of crowdfunding — STO (Security Token Offering) on Securities Exchange Platforms. A new fundraising method combines the simplicity of ICO and reliability of IPO. Any project from any industry can now start STO program to raise funds for further development. As you can see, blockchain use cases are not limited to finances. We consciously tried to indicate the areas of application as far as possible from the cryptocurrency :). We hope that this guide about the possibilities of the wonderful revolutionary technology of the blockchain will enlighten and inspire you. So, while regulators write laws and try to fit distributed registries into the legislative framework, many organizations in different countries of the world boldly use blockchain benefits, bringing the day when the word “blockchain” will cease to be something vague and gray, and this technology will change the lives and work of people for the better. https://medium.com/altcoin-magazine/blockchain-use-cases-cryptocurrency-is-not-all-that-blockchain-is-for-155468af881b
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