A community dedicated to Bitcoin, the currency of the Internet. Bitcoin is a distributed, worldwide, decentralized digital money. Bitcoins are issued and managed without any central authority whatsoever: there is no government, company, or bank in charge of Bitcoin. You might be interested in Bitcoin if you like cryptography, distributed peer-to-peer systems, or economics. A large percentage of Bitcoin enthusiasts are libertarians, though people of all political philosophies are welcome.
SATS is a failed project that never got off the ground due to either ineptitude or pure laziness on the part of the failed developer.
This subreddit is solely devoted to following the price of bitcoin. his is for those interested in investing in this virtual currancy and speculating on its future value as opposed to discussing the ideology, economics and the technology surrounding bitcoin.
Hey bitcoin fans, I want to make a study about the future price of bitcoin and after that release a video on YouTube, but before that I need your help to conduct the study. submitted by
here is the subject
The first halving on November 2012 the price of bitcoin was 10.8$ after that on December 2013 the price of bitcoin went to 1161$ = 107X profit
second halving on July 2016 the price of Bitcoin was 650$
on December 2017 the price of bitcoin went to the moon 19643$ = 30X profit
The Average between the two pumps is 68.5X the calculation is [(107 +30)/2] =68.5
The third halving 11 may 2020 the price of bitcoin was 8600$
If we take the average profit X the price of bitcoin on the third halving
we got this number “bitcoin Price prediction : 68,5 X 8600$= 589 100$”
My question is how many of you think that bitcoin will reach
less than 100 000$
between 100 000$ and 300 000$
between 300 000$ and 600 000$
Also my broken watch is correct twice a day. submitted by
I posted these thoughts & questions to /cryptocurrency
and didn't get much feedback, especially not on my numbers. Assuming my basic premises are correct at all, there are still some wide open questions below, such as:
Q: If we're trying to calculate a future world where millions of people use Bitcoin as a secondary currency, how much should we assume each user keeps in Bitcoin? $100 USD? $1,000 USD?
Q: Assuming Bitcoin reaches a worldwide saturation point, would the price stop soaring? meaning investors keep moving new money into it?
Q: Has the analysis I'm trying to do below already been done, and better? URL please?
That said, this is my best attempt to guess where the price of Bitcoin could (very optimistically) land if it becomes the number one go-to cryptocurrency accepted, or at least established, throughout the world.
I welcome any feedback to any part of this. Even if it's just to say "Bitcoin will never overcome the technical hurdles to become a worldwide working currency" (which was one of the two replies I received in my previous thread).
Thanks in advance. Bitcoin as a currency:
Like some others here, I believe there is some
chance (hard to quantify) that Bitcoin will become ubiquitous, that it will propagate to at least as many people as, say, PayPal.
This is the future where Lightning and other improvements have made Bitcoin viable as a day to day currency. My friends are comfortable carrying it around in their "wallets."
Now, to come up with some numbers, I'll start by imagining that this future total number of Bitcoin users is 200 million (the same as the current number of PayPal users). I then ask myself "How much cash should I imagine each person has in Bitcoin?"
I have the idea that the average amount might be $100.
That's purely anecdotal. I could imagine a typical American might carry around $40 to $100 in cash, and would do similar with Bitcoin. I imagine that the average person has at least twice as much Bitcoin as what they "carry around." I imagine that people in less wealthy countries would carry around less.
A dozen assumptions later, I say: Okay, let's say 200 million people each want to carry around $100 worth of Bitcoin. That would require $20 billion in Bitcoin.
Since there are 21 million Bitcoin total, that means each Bitcoin would be worth about $1,000.
That hardly justifies holding it at its current price, and it doesn't justify the belief some people have that Bitcoin might reach $500,000. So I'll start adjusting my numbers.
What if there were more
people who wanted to use Bitcoin? The population of the earth is 7.5 billion people. What if 1 out of 10 wanted $100 worth of Bitcoin?
One tenth of 7.5 billion is 750 million -- similar to the total number of people with credit cards, so this seems interesting.
For them to have $100 each requires $75 billion. And $75 billion in Bitcoin would mean that each Bitcoin is worth about $3,500.
As you can see, I need some help with my assumptions. For all I know, there's an axiom that for every dollar held by individuals, there are two dollars held by the businesses (stores, restaurants, etc.) where these individuals spend their money.
I have no idea if there's anything behind this 2-to-1 ratio I invented, but if it were true, then whatever number I come up with for individuals triples. The previous $3,500 becomes closer to $10,000 per Bitcoin.
Revising a different assumption, maybe that "$100 in BTC per person" is too low. Maybe the average person spending Bitcoin will keep $500 in Bitcoin, or $1000!
I can combine these assumptions various ways, and produce values per Bitcoin more like $50,000 or $100,000. But generating a $100,000 Bitcoin this way requires 10% of the world to have an average of $1,000 in Bitcoin!
Note: My assumptions involve a future where people primarily keep their money in fiat, but use Bitcoin the way they would PayPal or credit cards. I can't picture Bitcoin totally superseding other currencies, unless a country is in real trouble.
In terms of spending, I see several other numbers I could be crunching, such as:
In 2011, Americans spent $10.7 trillion shopping.
In 2011, Americans spent $96 billion on beer. http://mentalfloss.com/article/31222/numbers-how-americans-spend-their-money
What if I grab some number in between $96 billion and $10.7 trillion? Let's say that, of the $10.7 trillion spent on shopping, $1 trillion was spent in Bitcoin?
Here's where my skills fail me. It doesn't take $1 trillion in Bitcoin floating around for $1 trillion to be spent in a year. So I need to divide by churn or turnover or something. And then multiply by something to reflect not just Americans, but the world.
So, what about... Bitcoin as a Store of Value:
That brings me to statistics like these: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-how-much-money-exists-in-the-entire-world-in-one-chart-2015-12-18
The amount of money in the world is $7.6 trillion. Or maybe it's $36.8 trillion. Or $90.4 trillion. Depending on what you're counting.
Going through each of those three numbers... What if 5% of that amount made its way into Bitcoin, and Bitcoin alone? So I'll take 5% of each number and divide that by 21 million to produce Bitcoin values of $18,000, or $88,000, or $215,000 per coin.
But is 5%, of all the money in the world,
even worth considering?
One last comparison...
I'll skip the world's $7.7 trillion in gold, and get to the stock markets, which total $73 trillion.
I don't know if it's worth talking about the stock markets, as in: People might pull money out of stocks and keep it invested it in Bitcoin, even after Bitcoin is ubiquitous.
The idea is that eventually Bitcoin will reach some kind of stasis, and the price will stop soaring, right? At least, that's the future, final state I'm trying to picture -- a future where people are simply using
If Bitcoin stops climbing, can I really assume that people will pull some percentage of their money out of stock and invest in Bitcoin as an equity? (I guess you could say the same about Coca Cola. After all, it's everywhere, but its price keeps going up.)
So, here's where the numbers get crazy. If I decide that a full 10% of the money currently in stock markets made its way to Bitcoin instead, then that alone would justify a Bitcoin price of $350,000!
And I can always combine that $350k with one of the other numbers above -- say, $88,000 or $215,000 -- to see where someone could predict a possible $500,000 Bitcoin. But to do so requires several stars to align. Bitcoin has to win out as both the store of value and the quick, transactional currency. And then it alone has to pretty much dominate the world.
And finally, going any lower on that page, things like Global Real Estate and Derivatives just make my head explode.
So... Does anyone have any feedback on my math and the huge disparity between my lowest and highest numbers?
TLDR: What's the best way to get some really good "back of the napkin" type estimates of where Bitcoin (or any given crypto) could go?
Has someone smarter than me already done a thorough write-up like this, but with really good assumptions and calculations?
During the third halving event in May 2020, Bitcoin’s price was about $9,000. The meteoric rises in Bitcoin price over the past two almost-four-year periods have made people excited about the future of Bitcoin. While many predictions on Bitcoin price for the end of 2020 abound, they are mostly optimistic based on these perceived patterns. With the price approaching the resistance level of $20,000 too, there would also most likely be something of a pullback in the future of Bitcoin. In my opinion, the crash of the end of the year was caused firstly by experienced traders selling close to the top and causing a small drop in price. If his Bitcoin future price of $1 million comes true in 2020, that would give it a total market capitalization of $15 trillion. Market capitalization is used to work out the total value of an asset or business. It is calculated by multiplying the current market price against the total amount of coins or shares in circulation. The last time Bitcoin's price almost touched the 200WMA was in March 2020 when it briefly crashed to sub-$4,000 amid a crash in the global markets. If past history would reflect future behavior, ... Bitcoin Price History. Bitcoin is a highly volatile asset, and to accurately predict its future price is a challenge. In 2013 it started with a price of $13.50 and rallied to $220 by early April only to drop by around $70 towards mid-April.
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