LOEx Market Research Report on September 30: BTC rebound continued to maintain the original shock space trend
1、 [Venezuela is studying the feasibility of increasing the use of cryptocurrency in trade] According to the Russian satellite news agency on September 30, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said the country is studying the feasibility of increasing the use of cryptocurrency in trade in addition to petrodollars, which may include both private and state tools. 2、 [Ethereum 2.0 test network zinken will be launched on October 5] In the morning of September 30, bitfly (the parent company of ethermine mine pool) officially forwarded a tweet from Daniel Ryan, the project leader of Ethereum 2.0, and said that there would be another Ethereum 2.0 test network zinken. Zinken test network will be launched on October 5. According to the news in the morning today, Daniel Ryan, the project leader of Ethereum 2.0, tweeted that in order to deal with the problems related to the launch of the Ethereum 2.0 test network, before the founding of Ethereum 2.0, the official will have at least another zinken rehearsal. 3、 [bitcoin fund of 3iq is listed on the gibraltarian stock exchange] According to finance magnates on September 30, bitcoin fund of 3iq, a Canadian investment fund management company, has been listed on the gibraltarian stock exchange in an attempt to expand its investor market. Prior to the news in April, the bitcoin fund applied by 3iq fund had been listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. [Today's market analysis] Bitcoin (BTC) BTC fell to 10636.9 usdt in the morning, and then continued to fluctuate upward. The short-term short-term rise of BTC has just broken through 10850 usdt. The main currency followed the trend of the market and rebounded after falling in the early morning, and just rose slightly. BTC was reported at LOEX international station at 17854.6 usdt, up 0.56% in 24h. Bitcoin faces an upward continuation of $10800 as a short-term breakthrough; the 2-hour chart shows an obvious downward trend structure. Bitcoin has been at a low high since $12400. The lower highs continued this structure until recently rejecting $11000. This was followed by a relatively good performance of bullish deviation, with the market rebounding from its recent low of $10200. The rebound can not exceed $11000 region, and formed a range of concussion structure. However, for any upward continuation, the key breakthrough is $10800. If bitcoin breaks through this order range, it may continue to move towards a huge resistance level of $11200-11400. The failed breakouts were in the $10800 and potential reversals as well as the $10200 area of testing. Don't chase up the price, even if it's good or bad, buy it when it falls, sell it when it rises sharply, and no one can cut it. It is suggested that you should only do the big drop after 11100. The rise in the middle has nothing to do with you. Avoid cutting meat repeatedly Operation suggestions: Support position: 10800 points in the first support position and 10500 points in the second support position; Resistance level: 11000 points in the first resistance level and 11500 points in the second resistance level. LOEx is registered in Seychelles. It is a global one-stop digital asset service platform with business distribution nodes in 20 regions around the world. It has been exempted from Seychelles and Singapore Monetary Authority (MAS) digital currency trading services. Provide services and secure encrypted digital currency trading environment for 2 million community members in 24 hours. https://preview.redd.it/w3561vcgd7q51.jpg?width=554&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6c532c221cd7550cbdce8bf452e7cd8297aed7d3
Well, February 22nd makes it one whole year. I think that's deserving of a top level post, right? Here are screenshots of the Mint Trends, which has every single expense from the past year categorized. I've added comments on each page. Expenses Overview Auto Expenses Food Expenses Home Expenses Utility Expenses Tax Expenses Healthcare Expenses Entertainment Expenses Main takeaways, my total expenses for the year was $37,700, but I'm going to dismiss about $15,000 of that as "one time" expenses from paying off my car and my furniture loan. A more reasonable number for my annual spend is $22,700. With my car payment gone, my highest expense category is Food, averaging $500 per month. This has room for improvement. Healthcare will look artificially low last year because of taking Tax Credits up front. This year I am not and will be paying $325 per month for health insurance. At ~$4000 per year, this puts healthcare at nearly 20% of my total expenses. Nothing else is particularly interesting. That $22,700 figure is a reasonable real-world number for me, but for future planning I'd still inflate that to $25,000 just to have more wiggle room. I may look into traveling this year, which would add some expense. Investments: Vanguard Investments: (All in VTSAX)
Traditional IRA: $299,000 -> $348,000
Roth IRA: $14,500 -> $18,150
Brokerage: $18,400 -> $22,900
Total Rollup: $331,800 -> $389,100. ~17% return
Other LTCG holdings: $145,000 -> $291,000 (other investment accounts and bitcoin) HSA Investment Account: $6000 -> $7400, with another $1700 in the "cash" holdings of the HSA. $9000 cash in Money Market & Checking Account. Finances Going Forward I had earned income last year so I didn't start my Roth Conversion Ladder last year. This year I decided I will be converting the $12,400 standard deduction + $9600 of the first tax bracket for a nice round $22,000 converted. Yes I'll owe a little bit of taxes, but it sets up my Roth with $22k in 5 years which should cover the majority of my expenses. And with $350k currently in tIRA and converting $22,000 per year, I won't be able to chew through it all before actual retirement age. I have about $20k from an old stock purchase plan that unlocks come April, which I will be selling and likely moving over to my money market account to shore up my "cash" holdings. My plan is to not really tap any of my "normal" investment accounts for as long as possible. I've been deferring to selling Bitcoin if I need to move some cash over. Last year I sold 3 bitcoin, one for $9300 in June, and then two at the end of December (for tax year Capital Gains reasons) for $7300 each. These were all LTCG at 0% taxed. AGI for last year is around $35,000. The Living Part: There's all the boring expenses and financial stuff. Now for the ever painful question that my beloved Grandmother loves to ask, "But gosh, what do you do with all of your time! I can't imagine being retired at your age!" Step 1, restful sleep. During my working career I lived off 6 hours of sleep every day. It made for exhausting weekends trying to "make it up." And luckily I'm not a generally stressful person or else it'd have been worse. But now I go to bed when I'm tired, and whenever I naturally wake up, I get up. This can lead to VERY weird hours since I'm often an extreme night owl. But I generally get 9-10 perfect restful uninterrupted dream-filled hours of sleep. I'm betrayed by my "Food Expense" breakdown, but I really am cooking more and eating better. I drink a lot of coffee and water at home and generally try to eat only one meal per day, but sometimes lunch and dinner. I don't normally eat breakfast, just have coffee when I wake up. And did I mention how much less painful it is to go grocery shopping when it's in the middle of the day and everyone's at work. It's so nice. I spend a lot of time on reddit browsing my front page, and I check out the YouTubers I follow that post daily, then check out any of the irregular posters. Depending on how much good stuff there is, this could go on for a few hours. I have a lot of hours playing video games. I tend toward puzzle games or building games (Factorio, Satisfactory) because they scratch that itch in my engineering brain. There are times at night where I'll spend hours on this website: https://www.puzzle-sudoku.com/ and play Sudoku or Nonograms or any of the other puzzle types on the bottom of the page. I'm doing my best to watch every single last show on Netflix. It's a daunting task, though it's surprising how often I drift back toward watching the same smattering of Star Trek: The Next Generation episodes rather than try something new. But I try and take recommendations and work my way through shows. And Podcasts! The joy of joys is when I come across a new-to-me podcast that has a huge backlog. I found a great ST:TNG rewatch podcast that had 108 episodes already done. I spent like 2 months watching the episode of TNG then immediately listening to their podcast about that episode, repeat repeat repeat. I'm currently working my way through The Adventure Zone, I'm on episode 46 of 155 with them. And they keep advertising the other podcasts The McElroys do so I'm sure I'll roll into one of those next. For many people podcasts are background noise, but I'll often just sit on the couch and concentrate on just listening the podcast. Outside of home, I can't wait for the weather to get nicer so I can go on more walks. Being a night owl I like going for walks at night. I live near our city center so I'm within blocks of city hall, the main library branch, and the fountain / park. I jump at any opportunity to hang out with friends. It's just about every weekend that we are getting together to hang out and play board games. Like I mentioned in one of the breakdowns, I've started to play D&D with my buddy and his wife. I'd never played before but he's been DMing for years (but hasn't had a group for 10+ years now). He's glad to be playing again, his wife loves it, and it's super convenient for them to stay home with the 5 month old daughter. (And baby gets to hang out with Uncle Oracle.) I get together with former co-workers every few months to keep in touch with them. One in particular I have a standing every-2-month bar date with. I remind them every so often that if they want to go out to lunch ever to just call me. Personal History Just a quick personal history in closing. I was an automotive engineer working for OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers in the Metro Detroit area. In the 2008 downturn I lost my job and was unemployed for 2 years and ended up getting my house foreclosed in 2010. By the time i got a job in March of 2010 I was basically at $0. I had a tiny amount in an 401k, had about $20,000 in credit card debt from being unemployed. But then I got a very well paying engineering job ($108k annual and eligible for time-and-half overtime). I kept living like I was unemployed, spent as little as possible and saved as much as possible. Through my parents I secured a mortgage on a nice 1 Bed / 1 Bath 900 sq ft condo. I paid off my CC debt in less than a year and kept banking cash and maxing my 401k every year. I heard about bitcoin in early 2013 (from a guildmate in World of Warcraft, believe it or not) and jumped on board. All time bitcoin price chart (log scale) for those unfamiliar with the history. I got in before the first spike to $1000 in December of 2013, and kept buying throughout the downswing in 2014 / 2015. In 2017 I sold 5.6 BTC for a total of $6000 and paid off the last of my student loans and my car, then a few months later I sold 4.25 BTC for $6700 and paid off the last of my condo mortgage. So in May of 2017 I was officially debt free and had a net worth of about $200,000. Then in the fall of 2017 was when bitcoin exploded. I knew I had to take profits here. Every time the price went up 10% I sold another bitcoin. $7500, $9000, $10700, $13000, $15500, $18600. I sold all the way up. I ended up selling about $100,000 in bitcoin that year and I pushed most of it into my Roth IRA and Brokerage accounts. Then I really started thinking about FIRE in early 2018. Started doing the math, tried to see what my expenses would be, and thought I'd give it ago. I've told myself from day 1 that I'd give this trial a solid 2 years. If I don't feel good about it, or the money doesn't seem right, then I'll still only be 40 years old and could (IMO) easily jump right back into an engineering gig. So I targeted early 2019 so I could frontload my 401k for two months, grab the annual bonus, then peace out. TL:DR: 38, FIREd, Money's looking right, Life is feeling right, everything is fine
Don't Fight the Trend (Sidenote - Fuck r/investing)
TF, like these corn balls out here removing posts that have any bit of a bear thesis? lmao Getting to the point of my post, The Trend is Down.... Compiling data of closing points every two weeks from the start of 2020, each of the indexes are down-trending for the year & Bitcoin as well. Now the graphs which I've attached here hold little/next to no weight when looking for an indication on what position to take/when, but it's a piece of the puzzle when talking about the outlook for 2020. Another piece to the puzzle, since that 'judgement day' post (referencing something I posted 3 weeks ago on investing, would link but that got removed along with my post on april 19th warning the clowns in there that they shouldn't be buying into USO/investing in oil lmfao); we have seen 6 green trading days & 9 red trading days on the S&P, signaling to me that investors are favoring selling in the 280-295 range much more so than buying. While the S&P has rallied above 290 on the back of NASDAQ/MAGA movement, it hasn't broken into/through this range with any conviction at all, it's actually forming a head and shoulder top in the trading range - seen here. Further Dissecting the SPY - Price action is currently bouncing between the 50 & 200 EMA (EMA is quite significant as it weighs the price around volume traded, while SMA's simply calculate based on closing price day-to-day.) Friday's close placed us right under the 200 EMA (I view it as the ceiling currently.) and would point to downside come open market on monday (tomorrow.) *At the time of this post, futures opened with a gap down to 291 and has bounced back up to test this 2940 resistance. Will they push it above for a proper bull break before US markets open? Perhaps, maybe the bulls get their 300 touch; However, I see the indicators hinting to downside more convincing atm.* Further DD of 'leading indicators' when looking at ST trends (DXY, BTC, XLF) - XLF - (4Hr chart, rather than daily.) The Financial sector has been getting absolutely SLAMMED, like seriously, its almost worse than the beatdowns the small-caps have been receiving. Imo, this questionable performance from the financial sector says A LOT when considering investor uncertainty at the moment. On the four hour, this sector is currently bouncing between the 50 & 200 EMA's as they pinch closer together; which you could say is bullish, however, any and all uptrends on the chart have been broken & it leaves the financials out in no mans land (bearish.) It's currently pressed against it's 'LT' downtrend line (Established in early January after COVID was 'open public info'.) and made a double top rejection off of 23.70. BTC- Touched 10k & crashed over 10% this weekend. As seen in the first screenshot I attached, BTC has been trading almost side by side with the general markets (Most reflective when looking at the S&P or NASDAQ.) I believe this to be a leading indicator of downside ahead similarly to how it was a leading indicator in mid-march when gauging 'how much downside was left in the markets.' DXY - Key when considering short term deflation/inflation of assets. Has broken out above an immense resistance & has been confirming this as new support (people are hoarding cash, much more than they're spending, contrary to popular belief; I wont comment much tho, because tracking the DXY can get complex quick. We're taking it at face value here.) Watch for another major breakout (Would signify people hoarding cash, most likely stocks are getting liquidated at that same time. Comparing the timeline of the last breakout, March 9th- March 20th, this was the same timeline which the S&P took its major leg down from 300-220.) TLDR - Stonks do go down, they've been maxing out for the last three weeks & deflation is around the corner. Positions - Heavy SPXU & SQQQ positions, AMD $46p May 22nd/ $40p June 5th, XLF $20.5p May 22th, MGM $10p June 5th
I applied price discovery algorithms to 5 Min OHLCV data from Bitmex and CME contracts and Bitstamp, Coinbase, HitBTC, Kraken, Poloniex, Binance, and OkEx BTCUSD/BTCUSDT markets from March 2016 to May 2020. Some exciting results I got was:
Before the 2017/18 bull run, Bitfinex dominated the price discovery process. They started the run. But as the price increased, trades on other exchanges, Binance and Bitstamp played a more dominant role in leading the price up.
Since then, CME Contracts and Bitmex contracts have had an increasing role in price discovery. Today Bitmex and CME Contracts play the most substantial role in determining the direction of Bitcoin price.
In 2020, market dominance by Bitmex has been negatively correlated with price. Dominance by Bitfinex, Huobi and OkCoin has had high positive correlation with price.
Price discovery is the overall process of setting the price of an asset. Price discovery algorithms identify the leader exchanges whose traders define the price. Two approaches are most famous for use in Price Discovery. Gonzalo and Granger (1995) and Hasbrouck (1995). But they assume random walk, and a common efficient price. I do not feel comfortable assuming random walk and common efficient price in Bitcoin Markets. So I used this little know method by De Blasis (2019) for this analysis. This work assumes that "the fastest price to reflect new information releases a price signal to the other slower price series." I thought this was valid in our market. It uses Markov Chains to measure Price Discovery. Without going into the mathematical details the summary steps used was:
Data is first grouped into a daily interval. Then inside each daily interval's 5-minute candles, the change in prices between the current time t and previous time t-1 is calculated. The difference across the same time t across all exchanges in a given day is juxtaposed to create an initial matrix.
The initial matrix is used to create a Transition Matrix, which measures the probability of price changing to something else at time t+1 for its state at t.
Then other Markov Chain based algorithms are used to measure the influence an exchange at time t had over all other exchanges' price movement at time t+1 individually.
Reduction and normalization is done to this data. In the end, each exchange receives a single number that sums to 1 for a given day.
De Blasis (2019) names this number Price Leadership Share (PLS). High PLS indicates a large role in price discovery. As the sum of the numbers is 1, they can be looked at as a percentage contribution. I recommend reading the original paper if you are interested to know more about the mathematical detail.
Andersen (2000) argues that 5 Minute window provides the best trade-off between getting enough data and avoiding noise. In one of the first work on Bitcoin's Price Discovery, Brandvold et al. 2015 had used 5M window. So I obtained 5M OHLCV data using the following sources:
Poloniex, Bitfinex, Binance and HitBTC: Exchange's API through CCXT.
CME: Okay, this was was supposed to be tricky and expensive. I broke a TOS and scraped the data for free, removing the expensive part from the equation. I will not go into detail about where I scraped this data.
Futures data are different from other data because multiple futures contract trades at the same time. I formed a single data from the multiple time series by selecting the nearest contract until it was three days from expiration. I used the next contract when the contract was three days from expiration. This approach was advocated by Booth et al ( 1999 )
I can't embed the chart on reddit so open this https://warproxxx.github.io/static/price_discovery.html In the figure above, each colored line shows the total influence the exchange had towards the discovery of Bitcoin Price on that day. Its axis is on the left. The black line shows a moving average of the bitcoin price at the close in Bitfinex for comparison. The chart was created by plotting the EMA of price and dominance with a smoothing factor of 0.1. This was done to eliminate the noise. Let's start looking from the beginning. We start with a slight Bitfinex dominance at the start. When the price starts going up, Bitfinex's influence does too. This was the time large Tether printing was attributed to the rise of price by many individuals. But Bitfinex's influence wanes down as the price starts rising (remember that the chart is an exponential moving average. Its a lagging indicator). Afterward, exchanges like Binance and Bitstamp increase their role, and there isn't any single leader in the run. So although Bitfinex may have been responsible for the initial pump trades on other exchanges were responsible for the later rally. CME contracts were added to our analysis in February 2018. Initially, they don't have much influence. On a similar work Alexandar and Heck (2019) noted that initially CBOE contracts had more influence. CBOE later delisted Bitcoin futures so I couldn't get that data. Overall, Bitmex and CME contracts have been averaging around 50% of the role in price discovery. To make the dominance clear, look at this chart where I add Bitmex Futures and Perp contract's dominance figure to create a single dominance index. There bitmex leads 936 of the total 1334 days (Bitfinex leads 298 days and coinbase and binance get 64 and 6 days). That is a lot. One possible reason for this might be Bitmex's low trading fee. Bitmex has a very generous -0.025% maker fee and price discovery tend to occur primarily in the market with smaller trading costs (Booth et al, 1999). It may also be because our market is mature. In mature markets, futures lead the price discovery.
Table 1: Days Lead
Out of 1334 days in the analysis, Bitmex futures leads the discovery in 571 days or nearly 43% of the duration. Bitfinex leads for 501 days. Bitfinex's high number is due to its extreme dominance in the early days.
Table 2: Correlation between the close price and Exchange's dominance index
Binance, Huobi, CME, and OkCoin had the most significant correlation with the close price. Bitmex, Coinbase, Bitfinex, and Bitstamp's dominance were negatively correlated. This was very interesting. To know more, I captured a yearwise correlation.
Table 3: Yearwise Correlation between the close price and Exchange's dominance index Price movement is pretty complicated. If one factor, like a dominant exchange, could explain it, everyone would be making money trading. With this disclaimer out of the way, let us try to make some conclusions. This year Bitfinex, Huobi, and OkEx, Tether based exchanges, discovery power have shown a high correlation with the close price. This means that when the traders there become successful, price rises. When the traders there are failing, Bitmex traders dominate and then the price is falling. I found this interesting as I have been seeing the OkEx whale who has been preceding price rises in this sub. I leave the interpretation of other past years to the reader.
My analysis does not include market data for other derivative exchanges like Huobi, OkEx, Binance, and Deribit. So, all future market's influence may be going to Bitmex. I did not add their data because they started having an impact recently. A more fair assessment may be to conclude this as the new power of derivative markets instead of attributing it as the power of Bitmex. But Bitmex has dominated futures volume most of the time (until recently). And they brought the concept of perpetual swaps.
There is a lot in this data. If you are making a trading algo think there is some edge here. Someday I will backtest some trading logic based on this data. Then I will have more info and might write more. But, this analysis was enough for to shift my focus from a Bitfinex based trading algorithm to a Bitmex based one. It has been giving me good results. If you have any good ideas that you want me to write about or discuss further please comment. If there is enough interest in this measurement, I can setup a live interface that provides the live value.
$ 144 million transaction cost bitcoin whale 30 cents commission
One of the largest Bitcoin holders emptied his wallet in one transaction at 14,922 BTC ($ 144 million). The commission was only $ 0.3. Information about the movement of funds published service Whale Alert. According to him, bitcoins were transferred to an unknown address. https://twitter.com/whale_alert/status/1262484285908549640 https://preview.redd.it/3x5974i37pz41.jpg?width=560&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a847137857dbb3406e07a95a0a39413cd1b4e122 The identity of the whale is also unknown, but its wallet has been the subject of close attention in recent months. According to BitInfoCharts, on April 5, the address was 58th in terms of the number of bitcoins on the balance sheet (12,380 BTC or $ 85.08 million at the exchange rate of that time). https://preview.redd.it/qxlsc45y7pz41.jpg?width=768&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6c7e25119d4b35e94da1ed1a323eaf46d97e3232 On May 13, the wallet rose to 48th place, bringing the total cryptocurrency to 15,470 BTC ($ 138.15 million at that time). A week earlier, an unknown whale transferred 47,835 BTC ($ 417 million) with a commission of $ 1.44. In October 2019, a transaction on 112,027 BTC was carried out on the Bitcoin network (more than $ 930 million at that time). The commission then amounted to $ 3.89. In September last year, a transaction was recorded at 94,504 BTC, which exceeded $ 1 billion at the exchange rate at the time of the transfer. In this case, the commission turned out to be unusually high - $ 700.
For Trading April 7th STOCKS RUN-UP Oil Falls False Hopes Today was an amazing day! I don’t believe that the bottom has been made, and I don’t think that today was a day to be a buyer, but as my Closing Comments says, “I could not have been more wrong.” We cut through every area of supply that I pointed out in last night’s Weekly Strategies. Here is the closing comment for tonight: https://youtu.be/JHjU3KOAQR8 . My problem with today’s action is that while everyone wants to believe that this was the bottom, historically, it is without precedent. There are many problems that we will face that are not currently known. The earnings of the companies that have no idea how long consumers are not buying clothes at Macy’s or TJ Maxx, or restaurants, where it’s not like you can make up the business with people eating 2 meals at a time. The closure of the Airbus plant in Alabama, or American Airlines cutting their N.Y. flights from 271 /day down to 13 is just not something that can be quantified when it comes to the net effect to both the balance sheet and profits. But the DJIA was +1627.46 (7.73%), NASDAQ +540.16 (7.33%), S&P 500 +175.03 (7.03%), the Russell +86.72 (8.24%) and the DJ Transports +532.38 (7.29%). Market internals left a lot to be desired with the A/D solid at NYSE 9.5:1 and NASDAQ 5.5:1, but volume was anemic with NYSE 1.4 billion and the NASDAQ 3.8 billion. All 30 DJIA stocks were higher with BA leading the way +113.31 DP’s but no other triple digit winners. On the +11.37% gainer on 3/24 there were 10 triple-digit winners. The strongest groups were Information technology, financials and consumer discretionary, with only Consumer Staples weak. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1400 members. SECTORS: We started with positive numbers from Europe on COVID-19 deaths and the first group pre-market were the some of the smaller biotech firms with Inovio Pharma (INO) started with a gap up and after trading over $8.80, never quite made it back in regular hours and closed $8.44 +.70 (9.04%), Immunomedics (IMMU) ended a trial for their breast cancer treatment because it’s efficacy was confirmed. The stock, which traded as high as $27.33 in 2018 had fallen to $8.80 last week opened the day at $20.09 but sold off a bit to close $18.78 +9.38 (99.79%). Also in the same group, CODX finished $10.31 +2.11 (25.73%) and VIR $36.70 +7.70 (26.55%). In another group, Wayfair beat both revenues and earnings and the home goods company, which traded down from $173 last year to a low of 21.70 on 3/19 gapped up to open $70.28 and closed $71.50 +20.87 (41.22%). BIOPHARMA: was HIGHER with BIIB +9.58, ABBV +2.31, REGN +10.95, ISRG +37.33 (8.07%), MYL +.30, TEVA +.94 (11.19%), VRTX +17.69 (7.42%), BHC +1.27, INCY +6.80, ICPT +3.90, LABU +4.44 (22.11%) and IBB $110.50 +4.25 (4%). CANNABIS: This group was HIGHER with TLRY +,45, CGC +1.10, CRON +.20, GWPH +4.78, PYX +.18, NBEV +.05, CURLF +.13, KERN +.80 (14.75%) and MJ $10.96 +.52 (4.98%). DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +16.50 (4.71%), RTX (the combination of RTN and UTX) was +7.32 (14.66%), gd +8.07, txt +2.49, noc +18.98, bwxt +.42, tdy +19.66 (6.81%) and ITA $148.00 +12.10 (8.9%). RETAIL: was HIGHER with M + .94 (19.54%), JWN +3.38 (25.9%), KSS +3.04 (26.41%), DDS +8.93 (37.41%), JCP +.05 (18.34%), WMT +5.92, TGT +4.93, TJX +5.15 (12.57%), RL +7.60 (12.46%), UAA +.77, LULU +12.75, TPR +2.09, CPRI +2.17 (25.44%) and XRT $30.21 +3.02 (11.11%). FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +89.36, AMZN +83.41, AAPL +21.29 (8.82%), FB +10.82, NFLX +17.22, NVDA +25.47 (10.44%), TSLA +32.99, BABA +9.39, BIDU +5.66, BA +23.38 (18.78%), CAT +5.33, DIS +5.92 and XLK $83.70 +6.58 (8.53%). FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +10.07, JPM +5.45, BAC +1.41, MS +3.40, C +3.51, PNC +9.12, AIG +1.11, TRV +5.09, AXP +10.70 (14.54%) and XLF $21.05 +1.41 (7.18%). OIL, $26.08 -2.26. The explosive moves in Oil recently have been news driven and the cancellation of the OPEC meeting and the threat of tariffs from Mr. Trump have cut off the rally from the $20.00 level. Today’s decline had little to do with the Oil stocks as all were higher. CVX +5.40, XOM +1.40, OXY +.50, NBL +.49, MRO +.02, MPC +3.03 (15.10%), RIG +.05, APA +.62, BP +.28 and XLE $31.41 +1.58 (5.3%). METALS, GOLD: $1,693.90 + 48.20. After the recent gains, Gold has failed to break through the highs around $1700 until today when it traded $1,715 before selling off a bit. Tonight, it has traded as high as $1742.00 and looks to be higher in the near future. BITCOIN: closed $7,330 +530. After we traded in a short-range day followed by a $1,000 range on Friday BTC closed above $7,000 for the first time since it broke to the downside early last month. While I want to add the 350 sold just over a week ago, I want to wait and see some stabilization. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $7.95 + .47 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
For Trading April 8th STOCKS RUN OUT OF GAS Oil Falls, Again Today was a somewhat “restive” day, and while we moved for a total of over 315 S&P-500 points, it felt pretty good to have a barely changed day. The DJIA went from +937 to close 1,000 lower @-26.13 (.12%), NASDAQ -25.98 (.33%), S&P 500 -4.27 (.19%), the Russell +.39 (.03%) and the DJ Transports +27.80 (.35%). Market internals were about as you would expect for an unchanged day with NYSE A/D 2.3:1 and NASDAQ 1.3:1 with an increase in volume. DJIA was 15:15 with NO triple-digit gains or losses and the leader, GS +53 DP’s with the losers BA -49, PG -34, and WMT -27 DP’s. The strongest groups Energy (although the oil fell 7%, Financials, real estate, materials and industrials. Consumer staples and health care were weak. The early strength was from the possible leveling off of the virus cases and the momentum from yesterday. The large cap technology names were weak from the start, but it’s awfully hard to top the day AAPL had yesterday +21.00 (8.72%). But the group gave up whatever gains it had by late afternoon with the only gainers being TSLA, FB, and AMZN (up only .40%). The interesting thing today was the fact that the US$ was weak (-.8%) but both Oil and Gold were also lower. This is tonight’s closing comment: https://youtu.be/8HoUm75j8Eg Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1400 members. SECTORS: Of all the names that moved higher yesterday in the virus treatment area the only IMMU, which doubled, managed to hold on to its gains finishing $18.91 +.13. Inovio (INO) rallied up to $9.20 but fell back to 7.93 before closing $8.27 -.17 (2.01%), CODX, +2.11 or 26% yesterday also gave back half of it’s gain to close $9.09 -1.22 (11.83%). It was only a matter of time before someone would find a “ventilator” manufacturer, but today, DPW Holdings, manufacturer of its Coolisys Power Electronics division received a major order last week and today announced that it had increased its offshore manufacturing capacity and that a customer was increasing an order. The stock was up 85% last week and today it traded up to $1.95 before finishing the day $1.54 +.74 for a 92.50% gain. BIOPHARMA: was LOWER with BIIB -10.18, ABBV -.58, REGN -2.76, ISRG -12.24, MYL+ .64, TEVA +.20, VRTX -8.30, BHC +.58, INCY +1.55, ICPT +.65, LABU -1.47, and IBB $109.63 -2.08 (1.86%). CANNABIS: This group was HIGHER with TLRY +.44, CGC +.21, CRON -.17, GWPH + 5.17 (5.97%), ACB +.01, PYX -.34, NBEV -.06, CURLF +.08, KERN +.10 and MJ $11.00 +.04 (.36%). DEFENSE: was LOWER with LMT -10.45, RTX +.68, GD -.04, TXT -.72, NOC -6.93, BWXT -.83, TDY +6.73, and ITA $147.40 +.54 (.37%). RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.27, JWN +1.94, KSS +3.07, DDS +1.87, JCP +.01, WMT -2.98, TGT +.64, TJX +.34, RL +5.19 (7.57%), UAA +.53, LULU +.05, TPR +1.43, CPRI +2.16 and XRT $31.00 +.79 (2.62%). FAANG and Big Cap: were MIXED with GOOGL +.81, AMZN +12.41, AAPL -2.47, FB +4.20, NFLX -6.51, NVDA -8.40, TSLA +33.63 (6.51%), BABA -2.95, BIDU -2.45, BA -4.28, CAT +4.35, DIS +.42 and XLK $82.95 -.75 (.90%). FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS the leader +9.73(6.15%), JPM +1.53, BAC +.83, MS +.23, C +.52, PNC -1.24, TRV +1.35, AXP +4.13 (4.92%) and XLF $21.25 +.21 (1.00%). OIL, $23.63 -2.45. The explosive moves in Oil recently has seemed to run its course and today’s drop cut the gains by a touch more than half. The stocks did not feel the effects of the price and most were higher. XOM cut spending and said that their fundamental underpinnings remain strong. CVX +1.00, XOM +.91, OXY +.61, NBL +.11, MRO +.14, MPC -.19, RIG +.08, APA +.71, BP -.05 and XLE $32.08 +.67 (2.13%). METALS, GOLD: $1,683.70 -10.20. After the recent gains, Gold broke solidly above $1,700 and traded as high as $1742 before falling back to close $60 off the highs and below $1700. I would be a buyer a bit lower than today’s close. BITCOIN: closed $7,330 unchanged. After we traded in a short-range day followed by a $1,000 range on Friday BTC closed above $7,000 for the first time since it broke to the downside early last month. While I want to add the 350 sold just over a week ago, I want to wait and see some stabilization. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $7.67 -.28 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
Huge update to Cryptophyl - the SLP token exchange
Hi there, We've just released a big update to cryptophyl.com. The complete overhaul includes the addition of new features, a mobile-friendly trading interface and many design improvements. On top of this, we've just seen our biggest month yet of SLP token trading: almost $1M USD over April. What's new? Dark theme – We’ve introduced a dark theme which recolours the exchange interface so you can trade indoors without worrying about your eyes. The most requested feature we’ve had, you asked, and we delivered. Charts – We've added OHLC candle charts to the exchange so you can view price and volume data of all token trading since Cryptophyl launched last August. You can toggle between different periods and set the candle interval. Mobile friendly trading – We’ve revamped the mobile and desktop trading experience to a modern and responsive web application so you can trade comfortably on the move. Design improvements – We've refreshed the Cryptophyl logo, colours and typography, as well as redesigning the interface to maximise screen size, to provide a fresh user experience. Data availability – We've collected the most important trading and price information and have made it readily available from the dashboard – the core of the product. You can start trading, depositing and withdrawing with just a single click from here. API Keys – You can now generate API keys for programmatic trading directly on the platform. With lucrative arbitrage and market making opportunities existing in this nascent market, there is no better time than now to get started (view API documentation or create API Keys). Record trading volume In April we saw $900,000 USD worth of tokens traded over the month. The biggest markets were:
HonestCoin (USDH) - regulatory compliant 1:1 Backed USD stablecoin built on Bitcoin Cash = fast, cheap and stable border-less payments. We offer both BCH and BTC pairs. (Great explainer video why it's a nice alternative to USDT https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEiO3mwDwPQ)
Drop Token (DROP) - Cryptophyl's native exchange token which you can earn just for trading and gives you perks and features on the exchange.
Spice Token (SPICE) - a fun appreciation token used for tipping on social media, one of the first and most adopted SLP tokens.
What are SLP tokens? SLP is an emerging standard for issuing tokens on Bitcoin Cash. This means any token transactions are as scalable, fast and cheap as Bitcoin Cash . You can learn more about SLP tokens and how to quickly create your own token here: http://simpleledger.cash/ What's next for us? We're working to release Detoken - a trustless token exchange which allows you to buy, sell and trade tokens whilst always being in control of your private key! This means there is no centralised point of failure and you never have to trust us with your coins and tokens. The exchange will be open source. We're making it easy for wallets such as bitcoin.com to integrate Detoken into their product flow and we think it's going to be huge for the SLP token ecosystem! Thanks, Semyon, Founder and CEO, Cryptophyl.com
Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread. Please read the disclaimer, guidelines, and rules before participating. Disclaimer: Though karma rules still apply, moderation is less stringent on this thread than on the rest of the sub. Therefore, consider all information posted here with several liberal heaps of salt, and always cross check any information you may read on this thread with known sources. Any trade information posted in this open thread may be highly misleading, and could be an attempt to manipulate new readers by known "pump and dump (PnD) groups" for their own profit. BEWARE of such practices and excercise utmost caution before acting on any trade tip mentioned here. PnDs and brigades are not sanctioned by the mod team in any way as they violate rule III. If you discover this thread is being used for these activities, bring it to the mod teams's notice via the modmail. Guidelines:
Questions, debates, meta issues, etc are all welcome.
Breaking news should be posted separately from this thread.
All sub rules apply in this thread. The prior exemption for karma and age requirements is no longer in effect.
Discussion topics must be related to cryptocurrency.
Comments will be sorted by newest first.
Resources and Tools:
To view live streaming comments for this thread, click here. Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com.
Click the RES subscribe button below if you would like to be notified when comments are posted.
Consider checking out our Weekly Skeptics Thread for discussion focused solely on critical analysis. Click here and select the latest thread on the search listing.
Thank you in advance for your participation. Enjoy!
﷽ The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people. The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets. Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.
Stock Market Crash
The Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially. All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity. Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses. Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely. So, why inflate the economy so much? Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value. Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat. Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis. Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.
Economic Analysis of Bitcoin
The reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero. Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology. Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value. Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block. Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer. Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed. Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin. Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public. A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved. Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely. Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.
Trading or Investing?
The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY). In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing. The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors. Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market. According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains. We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.
Technical Indicator Analysis of Bitcoin
Technical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
Volume – derived from the market itself, it is mostly irrelevant. The major problem with volume for stocks is that the US market open causes tremendous volume surges eradicating any intrinsic volume analysis. This does not occur with BTC, as it is open twenty-four-seven. At major highs and lows, the market is typically anemic. Most traders are not active at terminal discretes (peaks and troughs) because of levels of fear. Volume allows us confidence in time and price symmetry market inflection points, if we observe low volume at a foretold range of values. We can rationalize that an absolute discrete is usually only discovered and anticipated by very few traders. As the general market realizes it, a herd mentality will push the market in the direction favorable to defending it. Volume is also useful for swing trading, as chances for swing’s validity increases if an increase in volume is seen on and after the swing’s activation. Volume is steadily decreasing. Lows and highs are reached when volume is lower.
Therefore, due to the relatively high volume on the 12th of March, we can safely determine that a low for BTC was not reached.
VIX – Volatility Index, this technical indicator indicates level of fear by the amount of options-based “insurance” in portfolios. A low VIX environment, less than 20 for the S&P index, indicates a stable market with a possible uptrend. A high VIX, over 20, indicates a possible downtrend. VIX is essentially useless for BTC as BTC-based options do not exist. It allows us to predict the market low for $SPY, which will have an indirect impact on BTC in the short term, likely leading to the yearly low. However, it is equally important to see how VIX is changing over time, if it is decreasing or increasing, as that indicates increasing or decreasing fear. Low volatility allows high leverage without risk or rest. Occasionally, markets do rise with high VIX.
As VIX is unusually high, in the forties, we can be confident that a downtrend for the S&P 500 is imminent.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The most important technical indicator, useful for determining highs and lows when time symmetry is not availing itself. Sometimes analysis of RSI can conflict in different time frames, easiest way to use it is when it is at extremes – either under 30 or over 70. Extremes can be used for filtering highs or lows based on time-and-price window calculations. Highly instructive as to major corrective clues and indicative of continued directional movement. Must determine if longer-term RSI values find support at same values as before. It is currently at 73.56.
Secondly, RSI may be used as a high or low filter, to observe the level that short-term RSI reaches in counter-trend corrections. Repetitions based on market movements based on RSI determine how long a trade should be held onto. Once a short term RSI reaches an extreme and stay there, the other RSI’s should gradually reach the same extremes. Once all RSI’s are at extreme highs, a trend confirmation should occur and RSI’s should drop to their midpoint.
Trend Definition Analysis of Bitcoin
Trend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail. Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form. A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.
Time Symmetry Analysis of Bitcoin
Time is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding. Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading. Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure. Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price. Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not. We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in. What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
Daily Lows Mode for those Months: 1, 1, 2, 4, 12, 17, 18, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30
Hourly Lows Mode for those Months (Military time): 0100, 0200, 0200, 0400, 0700, 0700, 0800, 1200, 1200, 1700, 2000, 2200
Minute Lows Mode for those Months: 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 09, 09, 59, 59, 59, 59
Day of the Week Lows (last twenty-six weeks):
Weighted Times are repetitions which appears multiple times within the same list, observed and accentuated once divided into relevant sections of the histogram. They are important in the presently defined trading time period and are similar to a mathematical mode with respect to a series. Phased times are essentially periodical patterns in histograms, though they do not guarantee inflection points Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows. Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram. 1/1/21, 1/15/21, and 1/29/21 2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations. The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year! Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market. Terry Laundy’s T-Theory implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020. The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX. Therefore, our timeline looks like:
2/14/20 – yearly high ($10372 USD)
3/12/20 – yearly low thus far ($3858 USD)
5/9/20 – T-Theory true yearly low (BTC between 4863 and 3569)
Chainlink Price explodes - Reasons for the increase in LINK Price
Chainlink (LINK) is currently the most popular Defi project. The LINK rate has almost doubled in the past 3 weeks and hit a new all-time high of $ 8.48. As a result, the market capitalization rose briefly to over $ 2.5 billion and placed LINK in 8th place at CoinMarketCap. Of course, many are wondering how such a sharp rise in share prices could occur. https://preview.redd.it/8c4avufatsa51.png?width=337&format=png&auto=webp&s=5fa98b24c647e46df8fd75333bb62071e7499fbb Therefore, today we take a closer look at the possible reasons for the strong LINK Pump. If you are looking for cryptocurrency exchange with zero spot trading fees and Leverage trading engines that are ten times faster as compared to other cryptocurrency exchanges, VisitPhemex Exchange Basically, there are currently three main factors that have led to the LINK price increase. This includes the human psychology of pricing, high-profile partnerships, and a generally strong dynamic in the altcoin market. In addition, the increasing trading volume may have fueled the LINK price increase.
Then on July 6th, the time had come. The LINK price exceeded its previous record high of $ 5.31 and entered the pricing phase. This phase leads to FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) in most markets. The way up is clear and has no natural resistance that could be identified by technical chart analysis. Exactly this fact leads to the fact that many speculators get in and fear to miss something, are almost ready to pay any price. Therefore the current Chainlink price increase could be irrational and encounter a hard correction. Within the last seven days, after the old all-time high was broken, the price exploded by over 40%, rising from $ 5.31 to $ 8.48. The LINK price is currently around USD 7.76. The trading volume of LINK also rose to a level that has not been observed since April 2020. At that point, the bitcoins price recovered from its strong sell-off to around $ 3,750. During this period, the demand for cryptocurrencies from retail investors rose by leaps and bounds. Some analysts believe that the LINK price could rise to USD 10 in the next few weeks. However, this statement should be treated with caution.
Partnerships stimulate business
Over the course of this year, Chainlink has entered into many high-profile partnerships with companies in the crypto sector. Chainlink partnered with Nexo on July 8th. Nexo is a crypto credit company with around 800,000 users. Chainlink is to make its Oracle solutions available to the company. Chainlink co-founder Sergey Nazarov said: We are excited to bring Chainlink's secure and reliable Oracle solutions to Nexo's popular credit platform so users can independently check the interest rate and collateral rates they should receive on the blockchain. Over the past two months, Chainlink has partnered with blockchain projects and companies like Matic Network and Hedera Hashgraph. Chainlink was also mentioned in a Google blog post entitled Building hybrid blockchain/cloud applications with Ethereum and Google Cloud. LINK does not miss a partnership and therefore remains on everyone's lips. Feels like every major crypto company is already included as a partner. This attracts a lot of attention and thus increases interest in Chainlink.
Altcoin and Defi Momentum bring LINK up
The Altcoin market has shown its strong side in recent weeks. While the Bitcoin price was rather sideways, some altcoins have exploded. Chainlink is just the tip of the iceberg. Many other projects, especially from the Defi Space, were able to grow properly. DeFi is on everyone's lips and investors are looking for the next “insider tip” to quickly make a few 100%. The crypto market is becoming increasingly irrational and money is being thrown from one project to the next. It is strongly reminiscent of 2017 and 2018 at the ICO hype. The strong hype and greed can be felt and makes a timely correction more and more likely. Many are already talking about an Altcoin Season and are currently seeing LINK and many other Altcoin projects outperforming BTC. How long the situation lasts and whether further profits can be achieved with LINK is in the stars. But you should keep in mind that Chainlink has increased by over 450% in the last 3-4 months. This could lead to strong correction.
For Trading April 13th Stocks Rally, Again Oil Fails on Cutbacks Today was another day in which the market rallied on bad news. First time unemployment claims were 6.6 million vs the 5 million expectations, a big number by itself. The FED hit the market with it’s announcement of a new $2.3 TRILLION of emergency lending to businesses and municipalities. The UK announced its plan to fund their fiscal needs and in Germany, Merkel rejected the Italians demand for a joint euro debt deal. U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment fell sharply to 71 vs. 89 in March and the consensus of 79.3. The DJIA finished +285.80 (1.22%), NASDAQ +62.68 (.77%), S&P 500 +39.84 (1.45%) the Russell again beat all others at +55.06 (4.62%) while the DJ Transports were +84.53 (1.04%). Market internals were 5.5:1 on NYSE and 3:1 NASDAQ. Volume was light again, but on a pre-holiday trading day that’s par for the course. Financials, real estate and Industrials were strong and Health care, technology and communication services weak. DJIA were 19 up and 11 lower with no triple-digit gainers or losers. JPM +58, GS +50, HD +49, and MCD +42 DPs, while UNH -22, jnj -14 and INTC -13 DPs. Tonight’s Closing Commentary is available https://youtu.be/O7pZP678FZs There was also an excellent interview on CNBC HalfTime with Chamath Palihapitiya about bailouts and the American public that I’ve added. I think it’s especially interesting given that he is not a politician, but rather a venture capitalist. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/chamath-palihapitiya-us-needs-to-let-hedge-funds-billionaires-fail.html Besides this portion of the interview Chamath discusses that if the government wants to help “people” and make them even, they should take their last years W2 and pay them monthly what they earned last year and not to support the banks by taking illiquid assets off their balance sheets. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1800 members. SECTORS: BIOPHARMA: was MIXED with BIIB +3.05, ABBV +1.49, REGN +.63, ISRG -5.71, MYL +.85, TEVA +.34, VRTX -2.66, BHC +2.42 (15.43%), INCY -.94, ICPT +2.21, LABU +1.41 AND IBB $113.98 +1.04 (.92%). CANNABIS: This group was MIXED with TLRY -.12, CGC -.23, CRON -.27, GWPH -1.32, ACB +.03, PYX +.30, NBEV -.03, CURLF +.06, KERN +.14, and MJ $11.45 +.14 (1.34%). DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +13.59, RTX +2.88, GD +4.11, TXT +1.55, NOC +7.33, BWXT +.85, TDY -1.23 and ITA $156.00 +5.05 (3.35%). RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.91, JWN +2.68, KSS +3.08, DDS +.01, JCP +.025, WMT +.24, TGT -.23, TJX -.11, RL +4.25 (5.58%), UAA +.75, LULU +7.50, TPR +.93, CPRI -.08 and XRT $33.55 +1.17 (3.61%). FAANG and Big Cap: were MIXED with GOOGL +1.00, AMZN +5.22, AAPL +3.08, FB +1.09, NFLX +.84, NVDA -2.70, TSLA +45.66 (8.32%), BABA -.08, BIDU +1.67, BA +8.63 (5.88%), CAT -1.50, DIS +4.48 and XLK $85.20 +.02 (.02%). FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +8.44, JPM +9.50 (10.07%), BAC +1.64, MS +1.90, C +3.74, PNC +6.50, AIG +2.42, TRV +4.97, AXP +3.42 and XLF $23.38 +1.19 (5.36%). OIL, $22.76 -2.33. Oil started the day with the announcement that Russia and Saudi’s were in agreement about a cut in production of “up to” 20 million barrels/day. Later in the day the WSJ reported that the cuts were not as reported and involved cuts of only half that and only for a limited period of time. Prices had been higher by almost 13% before the reversal which sent priced -7%. In all of history, oil has only had this size range 3 times and 2 of those times were this month. Oil stocks were higher and XLE finished $34.75 +.53 (1.55%). METALS, GOLD: $1,752.80 +68.50. After the recent gains, Gold broke solidly above $1,700 and traded as high as $1742 before falling back to close $60 off the highs and below $1700. Today was a major move to the upside and the close is the highest since September 2012 and sets up a move towards the highs at $1,800 from 2011. BITCOIN: closed $7,290 -45. After we traded in a short-range day followed by a $1,000 range on Friday BTC closed above $7,000 for the first time since it broke to the downside early last month. While I want to add the 350 sold just over a week ago, I want to wait and see some stabilization. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $7.80 -.05 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
TRUE historical data on yearly lows (correcting repetitive historical false information spread on reddit and twitter)
Recently, wrong historical data on the alleged Bitcoin yearly lows could be repetitively read in ill-researched or "blindly copy-pasted" posts and tweets, e.g. falsely claiming a yearly low for 2013 of $65, where $13 is the correct value (wrong by a factor of 5)! Here is the correct data: TRUE yearly lows (first historically recorded trade occurred at MtGox exchange on 17th July 2010; bitstamp exchange started operation on 13 Sep 2011*): *not included: Bitcoin prices of around $0.003 on Bitcoin USD markets recorded since 25th April 2010, consistent with famous two Bitcoin pizzas from 22nd May 2010 worth $30 for 10,000 BTC. Yearly absolute lows (just omitting obvious implausible data flaws) - not recommended because short outliers of very low trade volumes can bias the view of the real market situation:
2010: $0.03211 (MtGox, 30th August)
2011: $0.289 (MtGox, 2nd January)
2011: $2.22 (bitstamp, 20th & 21st October)
2012: $3.80 (bitstamp, 27th January)
2013: $12.77 (bitstamp, 1st January)
2014: $275.00 (bitstamp, 5th October)
2015: $152.40 (bitstamp, 14th January)
2016: $352.00 (bitstamp, 16th January)
2017: $751.34 (bitstamp, 12th January)
2018: $3122.28 (bitstamp, 15th December)
2019: $3322.19 (bitstamp, 29th January)
2020: <= $6853.53 (bitstamp, 3rd January)
Yearly lows of daily weighted averages - more useful because short outliers with very low volumes are not biasing the statistics:
For Trading MAY 8th NASDAQ Up on the Year All the other Indexes Still Down Earnings Galore Today’s market was another big open followed by sideways action all day and then the DJIA and S&P finished on their lows. The DJIA was +211.25 (.89%), NASDAQ +126.27 (1.41%), S&P 500 +.32.77 (1.15%), the Russell +19.92 (1.58%) and the Transports +118.76 (1.5%). The DJIA was split 16 up, 14 down with the biggest winner’s BA +46, GS +37, HD +36, MCD +28 and V +27 DPs. The only double-digit loser was UNH -26 DPs. The strong sectors were Energy, Financials and materials and the weaker Consumer staples and healthcare. Market internals were 2.5:1 up on the NYSE and 2.2:1 on NASDAQ. Volume was light again. Unemployment numbers for April come at 8:30 tomorrow morning. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1900 members. I also did this video titled “How to survive being an options trader and not blow up your account,” over the long weekend. I think it’s very informative as a guide to stock selection and option choices. The link is https://youtu.be/Y7H9RpWfLlo Enjoy!! Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/gmdS65mok0Q SECTORS: Earnings played a part in today’s market again. The follow-thru from yesterday’s numbers pushed PYPL +18 (14%) and LYFT +5.66 (21.7%). Today’s numbers were a mix with the hospitality booking firms the biggest losers. BKNG was a miss and after closing $1443.91 +65 it fell as low as 1,381 -63 but bounced back to close $1,440 – only $3.91. Trip Advisor (TRIP) was not quite so lucky. They missed top and bottom lines and after closing $18.72 +.63 it fell to $17.35 and finished $17.86 -.86, but it is down 40% YTD. Uber reported horrendous numbers and it had closed $30.93 +3.11 on the strength of yesterdays LYFT numbers but the losses increased, and the company posted a loss of $2.9 billion vs. $1.4B expected and the stock fell to $29.50 before the CEO came on the call and spread some BS pixie dust about the last 4 weeks improving, but at the same time withdrew the guidance going forward. He also said that UBER Eats grew, but that they lose money on every delivery. At that point the stock turned and ran up to $34.19 before closing $32.80 + about $5 on the day. Unbelievable. ROKU reported a beat on revenues but another loss. The stock had closed $137.50 +9.98 and guidance is for no profit in either 2020 or 2021. The stock sold off to $123.11 and finished $123.50 -14.00 (3.73%). FOOD SUPPLY: was MIXED with TSN +2.62, BGS -.35, FLO +.14, CAG -.60, MDLZ +.02, KHC -.48, CALM +.84, JJSF +1.30, SAFM +5.91 and LANC -2.34. BIOPHARMA: was HIGHER with BIIB +7.22, ABBV -.96, REGN +6.55, ISRG +24.09, GILD +.38, MYL +.54, TEVA +1.06 (10.11%), VRTX +.94, BHC -1.27, INCY +.39, ICPT -3.34, LABU +.24 and IBB $127.17 +.17 (.13%). CANNABIS: This group was HIGHER with TLRY +.28, CGC +.16, CRON +.13, GWPH -.02, ACB +.003, PYX +.15, NBEV +.07, CURLF +.11, KERN +.28 and MJ $11.82 +.05 (.42%). DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT -.58, GD +5.79, TXT +.61, NOC +1.11, BWXT +.56, TDY +3.37, RTX -.56 and ITA $146.05 +1.62 (1.12%). RETAIL was HIGHER with M +.14, JWN +.26, KSS +1.56, DDS +.53, JCP +.004, WMT -.72, TGT +.21, TJX +.84, RL -.90, UAA +.62, LULU +2.87, TPR +.68, CPRI +.79 and XRT $36.53 +.22 (.61%). FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +26.07, AMZN +19.54, AAPL +4.75, FB +3.71, NFLX +1.74, NVDA +9.21, TSLA +.92, BABA +2.08, BIDU +1.12, CMG +31.46, CAT +.08, BA +7.69, DIS +6.42, and XLK $93.88 +1.85 (2.01%). FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +6.08, JPM +1.51, BAC +.70, MS +1.83, C +1.96, PNC +2.80, AIG +2.25, TRV +2.51, AXP +3.50, V +4.92 and XLF $21.82 +.50 (2.35%). OIL, $24.83 -.79. Oil was higher over-night and the rally continued early in the day to a slightly lower high of $27.79 before falling back and closing down on the day. The stocks were higher across the board with the XLE $37.09 +.94 (2.6%). METALS, GOLD: $1,725.80 +37.30. After the recent gains, Gold broke below $1,700 and traded as low as $1683.90 before turning higher and breaking out again. last Wednesday. We are long NEM. BITCOIN: closed $10010 +670. After breaking out over $7500 we have consolidated and broken over 8,000 and 8,500 and again consolidated. Last night I said “today’s close is the highest since BTC broke down in early March at $9385 and 9390. $10,000-10,250 seems like the next stop.” But I didn’t think it would be today. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $11.98 +1.23 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
Bitcoin 11 Years - Achievements, Lies, and Bullshit Claims So Far - Tooootally NOT a SCAM !!!!
That's right folks, it's that time again for the annual review of how Bitcoin is going: all of those claims, predictions, promises .... how many have turned out to be true, and how many are completely bogus ??? Please post / link this on Bitcoin (I am banned there for speaking the truth, so I cannot do it) ... because it'a way past time those poor clueless mushrooms were exposed to the truth. Anyway, without further ado, I give you the Bitcoin's Achievements, Lies, and Bullshit Claims So Far ... . Bitcoin Achievements so far:
It has spawned a cesspool of scams (2000+ shit coin scams, plus 100's of other scams, frauds, cons).
Many 1,000's of hacks, thefts, losses.
Illegal Use Cases: illegal drugs, illegal weapons, tax fraud, money laundering, sex trafficking, child pornography, hit men / murder-for-hire, ransomware, blackmail, extortion, and various other kinds of fraud and illicit activity.
Legal Use Cases: Steam Games, Reddit, Expedia, Stripe, Starbucks, 1000's of merchants, cryptocurrency conferences, Ummm ????? The few merchants who "accept Bitcoin" immediately convert it into FIAT after the sale, or require you to sell your coins to BitPay or Coinbase for real money, and will then take that money. Some of the few who actually accept bitcoin haven't seen a customer who needed to pay with bitcoin for the last six months, and their cashiers no longer know how to handle that.
Contributing significantly to Global Warming.
Wastes vasts amounts of electricity on useless, do nothing work.
Exponentially raises electricity prices when big miners move into regions where electricity was cheap.
It’s the first "currency" that is not self-sustainable. It operates at a net loss, and requires continuous outside capital to replace the capital removed by miners to pay their costs. It’s literally a "black hole currency."
It created a new way for people living too far from Vegas to gamble all their life savings away.
Spawned "blockchain technology", a powerful technique that lets incompetent programmers who know almost nothing about databases, finance, programming, or blockchain scam millions out of gullible VC investors, banks, and governments.
Increased China's foreign trade balance by a couple billion dollars per year.
Helped the FBI and other law enforcement agents easily track down hundreds of drug traffickers and drug users.
Wasted thousands if not millions of man-hours of government employees and legislators, in mostly fruitless attempts to understand, legitimize, and regulate the "phenomenon", and to investigate and prosecute its scams.
Rekindled the hopes of anarcho-capitalists and libertarians for a global economic collapse, that would finally bring forth their Mad Max "utopia".
Added another character to Unicode (no, no, not the "poo" 💩 character ... that was my first guess as well 🤣)
Provides an easy way for malware and ransomware criminals to ply their trade and extort hospitals, schools, local councils, businesses, utilities, as well as the general population.
~~Bitcoin is "striking fear into the hearts of bankers, precisely because Bitcoin eliminates the need for banks. ~~, Mark Yusko, billionaire investor and Founder of Morgan Creek Capital, https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/
"A bitcoin miner in every device and in every hand."
"All the indicators are pointing to a huge year and bigger than anything we have seen before."
"Bitcoin is communism and democracy working hand in hand."
"Bitcoin is freedom, and we will soon be free."
"Bitcoin isn't calculated risk, you're right. It's downright and painfully obvious that it will consume global finance."
"Bitcoin most disruptive technology of last 500 years"
"Bitcoin: So easy, your grandma can use it!"
"Creating a 4th Branch of Government - Bitcoin"
"Future generations will cry laughing reading all the negativity and insanity vomited by these permabears."
"Future us will thank us."
"Give Bitcoin two years"
"HODLING is more like being a dutiful guardian of the most powerful economic force this planet has ever seen and getting to have a say about how that force is unleashed."
"Cut out the middleman"
"full control of your own assets"
"reduction in wealth gap"
"cannot print money out of thin air"
"Why that matters? Because blockchain not only cheaper for them, it'll be cheaper for you and everyone as well."
"If you are in this to get rich in Fiat then no. But if you are in this to protect your wealth once the current monetary system collapse then you are protected and you'll be the new rich."
"Theres the 1% and then theres the 99%. You want to be with the rest thats fine. Being different and brave is far more rewarding. No matter your background or education."
"NO COINERS will believe anything they are fed by fake news and paid media."
"I know that feeling (like people looking at you as in seeing a celebrity and then asking things they don't believe until their impressed)."
"I literally walk round everyday looking at other people wondering why they even bother to live if they don't have Bitcoin in their lives."
"I think bitcoin may very well be the best form of money we’ve ever seen in the history of civilization."
"I think Bitcoin will do for mankind what the sun did for life on earth."
"I think the constant scams and illegal activities only show the viability of bitcoin."
"I think we're sitting on the verge of exponential interest in the currency."
"I'm not using hyperbole when I say Satoshi found the elusive key to World Peace."
"If Jesus ever comes back you know he's gonna be using Bitcoin"
"If this idea was implemented with The Blockchain™, it would be completely flawless! Flawless I tell you!"
"If you're the minimum wage guy type, now is a great time to skip food and go full ramadan in order to buy bitcoin instead."
"In a world slipping more and more into chaos and uncertainty, Bitcoin seems to me like the last solid rock defeating all the attacks."
"In this moment, I am euphoric. Not because of any filthy statist's blessing, but because I am enlightened by own intelligence."
"Is Bitcoin at this point, with all the potential that opens up, the most undervalued asset ever?"
"It won't be long until bitcoin is an everyday household term."
"It's the USD that is volatile. Bitcoin is the real neutral currency."
"Just like the early Internet!"
"Just like the Trojan Horse of old, Bitcoin will reveal its full power and nature"
"Ladies if your man doesnt have some bitcoin then he cant handle anything and has no danger sex appeal. He isnt edgy"
"let me be the first to say if you dont have bitcoin you are a pussy and cant really purchase anything worldwide. You have no global reach"
"My conclusion is that I see this a a very good thing for bitcoin and for users"
"No one would do such a thing; it'd be against their self interests."
"Ooh lala, good job on bashing Bitcoin. How to disrespect a great innovation."
"Realistically I think Bitcoin will replace the dollar in the next 10-15 years."
"Seperation of money and state -> states become obsolete -> world peace."
"Some striking similarities between Bitcoin and God"
"THANK YOU. Better for this child to be strangled in its crib as a true weapon for crypto-anarchists than for it to be wielded by toxic individuals who distort the technology and surrender it to government and corporate powers."
"The Blockchain is more encompassing than the internet and is the next phase in human evolution. To avoid its significance is complete ignorance."
"The bull run should begin any day now."
"The free market doesn't permit fraud and theft."
"The free market will clear away the bad actors."
"The only regulation we need is the blockchain."
"We are not your slaves! We are free bodies who will swallow you and puke you out in disgust. Welcome to liberty land or as that genius called it: Bitcoin."
"We do not need the bankers for Satoshi is our saviour!"
"We have never seen something so perfect"
"We must bring freedom and crypto to the masses, to the common man who does not know how to fight for himself."
"We verified that against the blockchain."
"we will see a Rennaisnce over the next few decades, all thanks to Bitcoin."
"Well, since 2006, there has been a infinite% increase in price, so..."
"What doesn't kill cryptocurrency makes it stronger."
"When Bitcoin awake in normally people (real people) ... you will have this result : No War. No Tax. No QE. No Bank."
"When I see news that the price of bitcoin has tanked (and thus the market, more or less) I actually, for-real, have the gut reaction "oh that’s cool, I’ll be buying cheap this week". I never knew I could be so rational."
"Where is your sense of adventure? Bitcoin is the future. Set aside your fears and leave easier at the doorstep."
"Yes Bitcoin will cause the greatest redistribution of wealth this planet has ever seen. FACT from the future."
"You are the true Bitcoin pioneers and with your help we have imprinted Bitcoin in the Canadian conscience."
"You ever try LSD? Perhaps it would help you break free from the box of state-formed thinking you have limited yourself..."
"Your phone or refrigerator might be on the blockchain one day."
The banks can print money whenever they way, out of thin air, so why can't crypto do the same ???
Central Banks can print money whenever they way, out of thin air, without any consequences or accounting, so why can't crypto do the same ???
It's impossible to hide illegal, unsavory material on the blockchain
It's impossible to hide child pornography on the blockchain
All Bitccoins are the same, 100% identical, one Bitcoin cannot be distinguished from any other Bitcoin.
The price of Bitcoin can only go up because of scarcity / 21 million coin limit. (Bitcoin is open source, anyone can create thir own copy, and there are more than 2,000+ Bitcoin copies / clones out there already).
immune to government regulation
"a world-changing technology"
"a long-term store of value, like gold or silver"
"To Complex to Be Audited."
"Old Auditing rules do not apply to Blockchain."
"Old Auditing rules do not apply to Cryptocurrency."
Bitcoin now at $16,600.00. Those of you in the old school who believe this is a bubble simply have not understood the new mathematics of the Blockchain, or you did not cared enough to try. Bubbles are mathematically impossible in this new paradigm. So are corrections and all else", John McAfee, 7 Dec 2017 @ 5:09 PM,https://mobile.twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/938938539282190337
2013-11-27: ""What is a Citadel?" you might wonder. Well, by the time Bitcoin became worth 1,000 dollar [27-Nov-2013], services began to emerge for the "Bitcoin rich" to protect themselves as well as their wealth. It started with expensive safes, then began to include bodyguards, and today, "earlies" (our term for early adapters), as well as those rich whose wealth survived the "transition" live in isolated gated cities called Citadels, where most work is automated. Most such Citadels are born out of the fortification used to protect places where Bitcoin mining machines are located. The company known as ASICminer to you is known to me as a city where Mr. Friedman rules as a king.", u/Luka_Magnotta, aka time traveler from the future, 31-Aug-2013, https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/1lfobc/i_am_a_timetraveler_from_the_future_here_to_beg/
2018-12: Listen up you giggling cunts... who wants some?...you? you want some?...huh? Do ya? Here's the deal you fuckin Nerds - Butts are gonna be at30 grandor more by next Christmas  - If they aren't I will publicly administer an electronic dick sucking to every shill on this site and disappear forever - Until then, no more bans or shadow bans - Do we have a deal? If Butts are over 50 grand me and Lammy get to be mods. Deal? Your ole pal - "Skully"u/10GDeathBoner, 3-Feb-2018 https://www.reddit.com/Buttcoin/comments/7ut1ut/listen_up_you_giggling_cunts_who_wants_someyou/
2018-12: "Bitcoin could be at$40,000by the end of 2018, it really easily could", Mike Novogratz, a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. partner, ex-hedge fund manager of the Fortress Investment Group and a longstanding advocate of cryptocurrency, 21-Sep-2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lC1anDg2KU
2018-12: Bitcoin will end 2018 at the price point of$50,000, Ran Neuner, host of CNBC’s show Cryptotrader and the 28th most influential Blockchain insider according to Richtopia,https://www.bitcoinprice.com/predictions/
Greetings from MCS, the derivatives trading platform where traders ALWAYS come first. Source: glassnode As you can see from Glassnode's chart, the number of wallets with over 0.1 BTC in the past year has increased by about 20%. On April 18, 2019, there were 2,610,350 Bitcoin wallets with more than 0.01, but on April 18, 2020, a year later, it exceeded 3,006,045, showing a 20% increase. The increase in the number of Bitcoin wallets means that more traders and investors are interested in blockchain and Bitcoin. As a member of the blockchain industry, MCS will lead the creation of a healthy blockchain ecosystem. Traders ALWAYS come first on MCS Thank you. MCS Website:https://mycoinstory.com/MCS Official Twitter:https://twitter.com/mycoinstory_mcsMCS Official Facebook:https://www.facebook.com/MyCoinStory.officialMCS Telegram Chat:https://t.me/mycoinstory_ENMCS Official Blog :https://blog.mycoinstory.com
MKR Holder DAI-gest: Week 17, 2020: Action Required: The State of the Peg
Action Required: The State of the Peg
MKR Holder DAI-gest: Week 17, 2020
Governance Recap April 23, 2020
![Imgur](https://i.imgur.com/Jg3loyp.gifv) MKR Holder DAI-gest is a weekly Maker governance recap that is written by the community for the community. The best source of Maker Community information is through active participation and engagement. This supplemental publication strives to present all relevant facts and remain free of editorial opinion (Big 3 takeaway excepted). The statements made herein are not the opinions or statements of the Maker Foundation. DAI-gest is Now Available on Amazon Alexa as a Skill. You can enable it at https://skills-store.amazon.com/deeplink/dp/B087NH82D1?deviceType=app&share&refSuffix=ss_copy for all of your Alexa compatible devices. Then say, "Alexa, Open Maker Governance Digest" and you'll hear the latest issue. Coming soon to Itunes. Subscribe to MKR Holder's DAI-gest on Substack - Free Corrections / Comments / Suggestions / Other: @adrianhacker-pdx in the Official Maker Forums or [email protected]
Big 3 Take-Aways for the Week:
Understanding the MIPS framework that is being proposed right now is essential. It is a lot of information to sort through, so take it in small pieces if that will help you to focus and retain the information. Here is a link to an indexed list of all the MIPS (outside the forum). It is the entire framework of an introductory governance framework and collateral on-boarding procedures. You will find the MIP number, title, and sentence summary with a link to the forum discussion. See below for two additional sub-proposals added to MIPS 0 through 12.
The state of the peg has caused concern within and without the MakerDAO community. Some of the larger Maker holders stepped forward and posted their concerns around the state of the peg directly in the Maker forum. This spurred a lot of momentum in the platform, discussed further in this issue.
Intention to implementation. The DAO is getting very busy, and thought needs to be given to determining the feasibility of proposals, getting buy-in, and recruiting the appropriate skill sets in the community. Timing is key. The DAO is in need of a project management framework that is effortless and easily integrated into the current systems.
Dispositioned Governance Agenda
LongForWisdom is proposed, second governance facilitator. He said "Yes!".
Wrapped BTC has been proposed for collateral on-boarding.
USDC Risk parameter adjustment and on-boarding additional stable coins such as PAX and TUSD.
On-boarding LINK as a new collateral type.
Self-sustaining DAO: MIPS 0 - 12 - Ratification timeline and two additional sub-proposals have been shared in the forum.
Urgent - State of the Peg - Getting DAI back on soft-peg to a Dollar after it has been trading high following black Thursday.
SCD shutdown going to Executive Vote on April 24, 2020, three-week delay to follow for a final shutdown date of May 12, 2020.
Zero bid auction post mortem data evaluation - Maker Man currently completing the data analytics from black Thursday. This part is moving behind the scenes. A report is forthcoming in the next several weeks.
Public relations consortium - Communication team to create consistent and representative communications on behalf of the DAO and to report meaningful ecosystem sentiment back to the governance community. The team has been having weekly meetings, a first report is due by the end of the month.
Governance vote cadence - the timing for which executive voting happened for certain parameters. This may be overridden by the MIPS governance cycle.
Compensating Zero Bid Vault Owners. The poll was affirmative to compensate vault holders. Currently waiting on data analytics from Maker Man before restarting in another thread.
DeFi Emergency shutdown consortium
Dark fix - "
Flip / Flop auction usability
Maker token authority
Precedent for on-chain polling. Signaling started to determine the governance community's feelings about having foundation member proposals require on-chain polling. The forum thread seems to have died.
GSM delay - raise the delay from 4 hours to 12 hours for enacting Executive Votes, as a safety precaution.- Ratified
MKR Debt Auctions - Completed successfully
Deep dive into collateral on-boarding - Presentation to community completed, see forum for the movement
Governance cycle: MIPS 3 Presented in G and R Call - Presentation completed, see forum for the movement
Since the Black Thursday event of March 12, 2020, DAI has consistently been trading above the one Dollar price soft-peg it is supposed to maintain. Sometimes grossly over peg by over ten cents. In recent weeks it has been slowly trending back to a Dollar but has not quite gotten there. Confidence has not yet fully returned regarding the recent market volatility. Also, people are holding on to stable coins due to market fears. This has caused a serious lack of DAI liquidity, creating high demand, and affecting the peg. Prices this last week ranged from one to two cents above peg. Paraficapital, a larger corporate Maker holder in the governance community posted their concerns in the forum and related the sentiment of worry in the ecosystem regarding DAI being off the peg. This brought about immediate discussion and action regarding monetary policy and collateral on-boarding. The most recent passed Executive Vote contains monetary policy to make minting DAI more lucrative from USDC. Also, some exciting new collateral types are being considered for use in the MakerDAO platform. More on that next...
WBTC as a new collateral type?
WBTC also is known as wrapped Bitcoin is currently being evaluated by the Maker governance community to be on-boarded as approved vault collateral. Wrapped Bitcoin is Bitcoin that is held by the WBTC DAO and then tokenized 1:1 on the Ethereum (ERC-20) blockchain. Bitcoin on the Ethereum blockchain you ask!? It's already here, you can trade it on the https://Oasis.app . Many players in the DeFi ecosystem are excited about this step. Bitcoin is the most popular and most valuable cryptocurrency. While there is a small amount of WBTC use on current DeFi platforms, it was stated that people have been waiting for Maker to adopt WBTC as a collateral type. It was also said that using WBTC as ERC-20 collateral is the primary use case for ERC-20 Bitcoin. Forum links are listed below for this subject.
Other Collateral Considerations
In addition to WBTC, LINK is being considered for on-boarding as approved vault collateral as well as additional stable coins such as PAX and TUSD. All of these collateral options are hoped to help bring back sufficient DAI liquidity and help return the DAI price peg to exactly one Dollar. Again, see below for the forum links regarding these new collateral types.
MIPS 0 - 12 Due for Initial Polling; if Passed Moving on to Executive Vote
MIPS 0 through 12 has been a high focus subject in the governance community for the last few weeks. These are the first documents that spell out a governance and collateral on-boarding framework for a self-sufficient DAO. This is the beginning of the two to three-year process of handing full control of MakerDAO to the governance community and dissolving the foundation. The very nice flow chart below shows the two possible scenarios for approval or rejection of these MIPS in the Timing Governance Poll. Forum links can be found below for further information. ![MIP Implementation Timeline](https://i.imgur.com/sny6rOf.png)
Single Collateral DAI shutdown is very close. An Executive Vote for shutting down SCD is supposed to be posted on or shortly after April 24, 2020. There will then be a 3-week delay for shutting down. This will give time for people to close out their vaults, and hopefully drain the migration contract. Stability fees are going to be set to zero to incentivize the closing of vaults. If you are still holding SAI as of the time it shuts down, you should be able to redeem your SAI for ETH via the migration portal at https://migrate.makerdao.com
Here is a guide from MakerDAO about becoming involved in Governance. The meeting is held every Thursday, 17:00 UTC. During the postmortem and corrective action phase of the recent crypto market prices and resulting fiasco there has been a daily call. This is expected to drop to two calls over the next week. Please check the forums for information related to ad-hoc governance and risk calls that may be happening. Governance and Risk Meeting Community Guide * Understand the issues that are discussed and governance themes that get explored to build a healthy, secure, Maker Platform. * Get info on how to connect by phone or webcam. * Explore meeting archives.
Bitcoin’s price valuation has made an upward rise briefly past $7,600 distribution territory. The bears are gradually getting weaker in BTC/USD trade operations. BTC/USD Traders should be wary of a $7,600 mark. Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis • Major distribution territories: $8,000, $8,400, $8,800 April 5th BitMarket.eu, first stock to exchange BTC for PLN, opens; April 12th Fisrt Bitcoin option agreement is signed, on #bitcoin-otc. April 16th TIME magazine publishes an article about crypto currency. April 23rd BTC/USD rate reaches and surpasses the USD/EUR price and the USD/GBP rate on MtGox stock exchange. The general capitalization of ... Bitcoin Price (BTC). Price chart, trade volume, market cap, and more. Discover new cryptocurrencies to add to your portfolio. Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Indicators Reading. As at the time of writing, most of the trading indicators trend towards the east direction. The 50-day SMA has briefly crossed the Middle Bollinger Band to the south as they both point to the east. That signifies the pace at which the BTC/USD market ranges in its current price moves. Charts providing a snapshot of the Bitcoin Cash (BCH) ecosystem. Charts providing a snapshot of the Bitcoin Cash (BCH) ecosystem. The Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Ecosystem at a Glance Bitcoin Cash Charts Press-Ready Charts. BCH BTC ... Buy Bitcoin. Purchase Bitcoin using a credit card or with your linked bank account via an online exchange. ...
BREAKING! BITCOIN PRICE PREDICTION FOR APRIL - THIS CHART IS NEAR 100% ACCURATE MUST SEE
Bitcoin is a volatile instrument and can move quickly in any direction. Crypto Oracle is not responsible for any trading loss incurred by following this advice Loading... NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE Like, Subscribe, Comment & Share, if You Enjoy the Content. Thank you for your time and support. Videos will now be Monday, Wednesday, Friday Evening EST unless ... Bitcoin Chart Analysis / Talk April 1 - BTC USD - Duration: 9:19. JD Marshall 1,032 views. 9:19. Language: English Location: United States Restricted Mode: Off History Help #Bitcoin #BTC #Live Other Media: 🐉 Official Site & Swag Shop: https://tomcrown.live/ 👑 Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/TomCrown/ 📱 Discord: https://discord... NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE Like, Subscribe, Comment & Share, if You Enjoy the Content. Thank you for your time and support. Videos will now be Monday, Wednesday, Friday Evening EST ...